All News Is Bad News

Obviously, it is the case that the folks tasked with trying to engineer a Democratic Senate were hoping to see Lincoln Chaffee lose his primary election, but it strikes me as a bit absurd to headline your Chaffee coverage "In Setback for Democrats, Incumbent Wins Republican Senate Primary" as if the main story in a Republican primary is the Democrats. The winner's name somehow doesn't even manage to make the headline. And so it goes with contemporary press coverage . . . essentially everything that happens in the world is, according to the press, a political win for the GOP and a setback for the Democrats.

In the real world, meanwhile, Chaffee's position in the general election is hardly unassailable. If Harold Ford is really leading in Tennessee then you have to consider this a month wherein the Democratic outlook is quite good.

Comments

To wit, Hotline suggests that all Chafee's win done is cost the Democrats $3M to win the seat. But, the dynamics among independents and Democrats may have changed now that Chafee has won a primary. We'll need post-primary polling to figure that out.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | September 13, 2006 10:06 AM

"If Harold Ford is really leading in Tennessee then you have to consider this a month wherein the Democratic outlook is quite good."

Given the Senate outlook, Dems basically need everything to go right in order to get to 51 seats.

Any bad news about the Senate, even minor bad news, is major bad news if you're concerned about taking Majority Leader away from Addison Mitchell McConnell, Jr.

And Chafee's win is indeed bad news.

Posted by Petey | September 13, 2006 10:29 AM

Chafee's win makes things harder, but not impossible. Whitehouse hasn't really even started attacking him yet, and there's plenty of material out there (like Chafee's vote for the bankruptcy bill and his various squishily pro-privatization statements from the Social Security fight). His nice guy image appeals to independents, but irritates more and more Democrats with every repeat of the Roberts/Bolton/Alito fight, where he seems to know what the right thing to do is, and votes like a party hack anyway. That's the target to hit in this election: point out that he's not "independent," and he'll never be as long as he's a Republican.

Posted by Christmas | September 13, 2006 10:50 AM

Given the Senate outlook, Dems basically need everything to go right in order to get to 51 seats.

I forget, has Chaffee pledged to support a Republican for Senate Majority Leader if it were 50-50? I thought he had hedged on that - meaning that if the Dems got 50 Senators, Chaffee might not allow Cheney to break the tie. (50 Democrat Senators seems more likely than 51.) But I haven't followed it too closely.

Posted by Al | September 13, 2006 10:55 AM

"To wit, Hotline suggests that all Chafee's win done is cost the Democrats $3M to win the seat. But, the dynamics among independents and Democrats may have changed now that Chafee has won a primary. We'll need post-primary polling to figure that out."

It's hard to imagine any post-primary scenario that won't mean some serious dollars being needed in RI.

Posted by Petey | September 13, 2006 11:15 AM

I forget, has Chaffee pledged to support a Republican for Senate Majority Leader if it were 50-50?

I realize from reading The Corner that Republicans are nervous about this (in the same way that Dems are nervous about Lieberman), but I don't really know why. Sure, there's no love for Chafee among rank-and-file Republicans, but the machine of the national party has certainly come out in force to support him, and it's hard to see why he would screw them over after that.

Lieberman, on the other hand, is running as an independent, and is getting support largely from Republicans now, so it's an open question how he'd vote if he wins the election.

Posted by Christmas | September 13, 2006 11:15 AM

Assuming that the Tenn. poll is accurate when it puts Ford 3 points ahead, don't forget -- because the voters won't -- that Ford is black. I suspect that even in Tenn. people are hesitant to say straight out that they won't vote for the black candidate. My rule of thumb, never shown to be wrong yet, is that a black candidate needs at least a 5 point edge in the pre-election polls to squeak through on election day.

Posted by CJColucci | September 13, 2006 12:08 PM

Stu Rothenberg had an interesting piece recently talking about how Tenn Dems tend to assemble their god-given 45% of the vote early, but have trouble getting over 50%, which is why he's pessimistic about Ford.

Dunno if he's right or not. And I absolutely swoon over Ford's skills and performance. But it is an interesting theory.

Posted by Petey | September 13, 2006 12:14 PM