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The Creaky Army

13 Sep 2006 03:09 pm

A bunch of American Progress dude point out some serious problems in The New Republic:

But the decline in equipment readiness is nothing compared with the growing manpower crisis. The Army is trying to keep the dam from breaking, but it is running out of fingers and toes. After failing to meet its recruitment target for 2005, the Army raised the maximum age for enlistment from 35 to 40 in January--only to find it necessary to raise it to 42 in June. Basic training, which has, for decades, been an important tool for testing the mettle of recruits, has increasingly become a rubber-stamping ritual. Through the first six months of 2006, only 7.6 percent of new recruits failed basic training, down from 18.1 percent in May 2005.

Alarmingly, this drop in boot camp attrition coincides with a lowering of recruitment standards. The number of Army recruits who scored below average on its aptitude test doubled in 2005, and the Army has doubled the number of non-high school graduates it can enlist this year. Even as more allowances are made, the Government Accountability Office reported that allegations and substantiated claims of recruiter wrongdoing have increased by 50 percent. In May, for example, the Army signed up an autistic man to become a cavalry scout.

This is clearly no good. The sort of counterinsurgency war the administration says it wants to keep fighting in Iraq, and that I agree we need to keep fighting in Afghanistan, probably requires a somewhat higher standard of soldier than was widely available in the pre-9/11 regular Army. Instead, we're reaching down to a lower one. This strikes me as among the good reasons to withdraw from Iraq sooner rather than later to create the circumstances under which we can start reconstituting our forces. For the longer term, though, it's long past time to look seriously at revisiting the ratio of spending between the military's different components. Simply put, the current international situation puts relatively less strain on the capabilities of the Air Force and the Navy and relatively more on those of the Army and Marine Corps than did the Cold War. Fewer ships and planes and more, better-trained, better-compensated infantry would serve the country well. Similarly, within the Army there's a need for less firepower and more manpower than what we currently have.

This is no particular knock on the Air Force and Navy. Rather, it's simply a fact about the world that different situations call for giving different relative weights to the different services. The United States doesn't face any serious rivals for control of the sea or the air and, what's more, the foreign countries with the most capabilities in those arenas are our close allies.

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Comments (13)

Matt, I don't understand your argument. On the one hand, you say we should withdraw from Iraq (and I agree with you). Then you say we should beef up the Army's ability to fight Iraq-like wars, while cutting back on the Navy and Air Force. Do you really expect (or want) the nation to fight more Iraqs? Maybe the answer is to simply say no to such future adventures and focus instead on the kind of wars where we have a natural advantage. Like those dominated by air and naval actions.

How is the US Army supposed to retain its best and brightest when they can get ten times the pay working for Blackwater?

matt says he is in favor of fighting in afghanistan, a war that would require a 'beefed up' US army. hence, withdrawing from iraq and strengthening the US army to fight iraq-type wars is not contradictory, because afghanistan is an 'iraq-type' war.

Iraq may be the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time, but that doesn't change the fact that a highly-trained, highly-capable infantry is at the center of most of the likely scenarios for force deployment.

WHy beef up the army and marine corps, when they don't even want to fight these sort of encourters? a peacekeeping, insurgency fighting branch seems like a better idea.

Erm, we still need lots of planes and boats to move our hypothetical big army around ... we just don't need quite as many planes and boats that are geared towards blowing things up.

Afghanistan may be an "Iraq-type war" we need to fight, but cutting Air Force planes and Navy ships in future budgets is meaningless for whether we win or lose in Afghanistan in the next year or two. By saying we need to reshape the military services -- something that takes years -- Matt is saying that the Army of the future will need to be able to fight future Iraqs. And even if the future is for more Afghanistans (small, tough counterinsurgencies), that will only ever take a small force. We're a big country; we can have a capable Air Force and Navy *and* an Army sized for an Afghanistan.

Dan, I think that's what Matthew's arguing for. The Army and Marines -- the boots on the ground -- are the ones that are going to be doing the peacekeeping and insurgency fighting, whether they like it or not. We need to kill programs like the F-22, JSF, Airborne Laser, DD-X, etc. and divert that money to where it would be actually useful in the current conflict we are fighting: guys with rifles who actually have to go in and shoot other guys with rifles. Frankly, it's a crime what they pay soldiers, especially when the same Defense Department has no problem paying mercenary companies like Blackwater obscene hourly rates.

We don't need an army as long as we have our RESOLVE! Resolve is what wins wars, not troops, or equipment, or strategy.

Anyway, the army is not really broken. Redstate told me so, so it must be true:

http://www.redstate.com/stories/war/army_to_make_2006_recruiting_goal

There's two big ways to measure quality: by fuckups, or by ability.

The reporting on falling standards is about the traditional method of gauging soldier quality - by fuckups. How many recruits are felons, how many didn't graduate high school, how many used drugs, etc. But when you say we need a higher quality (which I agree with), you're talking about measuring by ability - how smart, how skilled, how adaptable.

Though there may be inverse correlation between the two sets, it's not going to be a perfect correlation. Some will fall into both sets, many into neither.

"Similarly, within the Army there's a need for less firepower and more manpower than what we currently have."

This sounds like a fairly innocuous statement - somewhat like saying that the Air Force needs more F-16's and fewer F-15's.

However, it is actually more like suggesting that medieval armies should have substituted mounted knights with infantry armed with muskets.

The "American Way of War" is to substitute firepower for manpower. The entire Defense establishment is founded upon this premise, which it has pursued since the end of WWII.

To reverse this, as Yglesias suggests, is no mere technical adjustment. It demands a fundamental paradigm shift by the entire Pentagon.

That is not to say that Yglesias is wrong. He is right. However, when dealing with the military, we should always remember that "there is the right way, the wrong way, and the Army way."

And this is what he is up against.

Christ, we live in such a half-assed country. When you have a war against the biggest threat since World War II (the fact the Cold War meant we all lived a half hour away from a shitload of Soviet ICBMs apparently isn't as bad as a "dirty bomb"), and you have a population of 300 million, then you re-activate Selective Service. If Bush got gone to Congress to bring back the draft, of course he would have gotten it. We would have had all the manpower we'd need for as long as we really needed. But its a war when the administration wants to shut up its political opponents, but its business as usual when anyone has to actually make a sacrifice.

If we had rolled into Iraq with a 500,000 man occupation force perhaps things would have gone a little smoother (and then let troops rotate out after 6 months for their single tour). Its too late now for a draft or anything else to salvage Iraq, but if we hadn't been so half-assed after 9/11 we wouldn't be in this fix, either we'd have flooded Iraq with troops (or more likely), Congress would have been a little slower rubberstamping Bush's plans.


Comments closed September 27, 2006.

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