The real fly in the ointment for the Democrats this cycle has been New Jersey, which really ought to have been a safe Democratic hold. Instead, the NJ Democrats' reputation for corruption, combined with problems with Bob Menendez as a candidate, and warm fuzzies for Tom Keane's dad, have made it a very tight race. The latest poll has Keane at 39 percent and Menendez at 42 percent. Menendez' narrow lead at a low level raises the question of whether or not we should think of him as an incumbent. Technically, he is, and normally an incumbent polling at 43 percent three weeks before an election is toast, lead or no lead. But Menendez has been in that seat less than a year, and lacks statewide name recognition, so maybe it's more like an open seat in which case he seems to be doing okay.
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Is Menendez an Incumbent?
17 Oct 2006 11:41 am
Comments (15)
Corzine should have appointed Kristin Breitweiser. He may yet get the chance if Menendez wins and is then indicted.
I'd have preferred Pallone too, or better yet Holt, but I presume Gov. Corzine was moved by Menendez's large campaign treasury, and (possibly more importantly) the negative consequeces he'd have faced in Trenton for the next 4 years if he opted against Menendez.
The norm in most poli sci studies of congressional elections is not to count them as incumbents, not until they've won election in their own right. And of course appointed senators lose fights for reelection at a higher rate than other senators (as former senators like Jean Carnahan, Bob Krueger, Shelia Frahm, David Karnes and John Seymour could tell you).
I wouldn't say Menendez is doing "okay." A statistical dead heat is not okay.
Once again, Matt can't spell. It's "Kean" not "Keane."
Corzine chose Menendez over Rob Andrews because the latter had supported the Iraq war. Given the politics here, they were the only two serious choices. (Note the always huge gap between "serious" and "good.")
The "scandals" swirling around Menendez right now are mostly (but not entirely) GOP inventions. In the face of that, he's holding his own against the most popular political name in the state, despite never having run for statewide office before, which is probably a good sign. The Democratic wave should catch him, unless people have trouble pulling a lever next to a Hispanic name.
"The Democratic wave should catch him, unless people have trouble pulling a lever next to a Hispanic name."
Unfortunately, I think that is the key point. OTOH, people like me will be pulling that lever while holding our noses given Menendez' vote in favor of the torture/detention bill.
I've always thought Rush Holt was pretty awesome. "My Congressman is a Rocket Scientist" and all that. Was there any reason not to choose him?
"unless people have trouble pulling a lever next to a Hispanic name."
I actually think his ethnicity is exactly why he was chosen.
It is a bit mystifying why Corzine wouldn't recognize the ethics component to current NJ politics, but I'm expecting Menendez to sail through anyway.
Corzine is normally a god, which makes the selection even odder.
If I recall, Menendez wanted to go for Lautenberg's original seat, but stepped aside so that Corzine could self-fund the campaign. Once the tables were turned, the view was that Menendez had waited his turn and there would have been major problems if he wasn't given payback.
I don't know what to think about Menendez but a lot of the accusations against him seem to be based on innuendo, the fact that he's an "urban boss", etc. Is there any real evidence of corruption?
Time for Corzine to spend some money on his old seat. I'm still pissed at him for putting this seat in play--to live in Trenton!
"Time for Corzine to spend some money on his old seat. I'm still pissed at him for putting this seat in play--to live in Trenton!"
While I also would have preferred that Corzine had stayed in the Senate, this is one of the few races in which the Democrat has a substantial cash advantage over the Republican. Supposedly, though, the RNC is dropping $500,000 this week in negative ads in this race and will study the polling to determine whether further cash would be worth it.
Don't believe everything you read in the NYT! The Ohio pullout in the Mike DeWine - Sherrod Brown race is starting to look like a head fake.
Anyway, I think Menendez should definitely not be viewed as an incumbent. He didn't have any time to build up the statewide goodwill, campaign war chest, pork-barrel project list, etc. that are the advantages of incumbency.
How do the local papers refer to him? Do they call him Senator Menendez? His people should be insisting that they do. That's an advantage in and of itself.
Incumbents have a lot of diverse advantages, all of which tend to get lumped into "90%" re-election rate. It's pretty ease to tease out the various advantages, and figure which ones benefit Menendez and which don't.
Higher name recognition, easier job getting press. (yes)
Able to use current power and connections in DC to build campaign warchest (yes)
But most of the advantages are simply selection biases based on the fact that the person was capable of winning a similar election.
In contact with the field and organizations, who helped you win last time.
Capable of raising a ton of money.
In a district that is willing (or sometimes even always) to support that party.
Is a good campaigner, has a serious staff.
Being appointed means you don't necessarily have all those attributes, but I imagine Menendez does. So I'd call him an incumbent, and expect him to have such advantages that his performance really is disconcerting.
As my old physics instructor used to say, "You pays your money and you picks your frame of reference."
If I recall, Menendez wanted to go for Lautenberg's original seat, but stepped aside so that Corzine could self-fund the campaign.
Wasn't that also the case with Pallone?
Comments closed October 31, 2006.
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Heads in the Sand
Why the $@&# did the NJ Dems. go with Menendez? They coulda gone with Pallone, e.g., who is close enough to the local bosses but has a much better reputation.
The NJ party really is trying to shoot itself in the foot, it seems ...
Posted by DAS | October 17, 2006 12:05 PM