Losing to Tennessee is bad enough, but am I reading this drive chart correctly to say that Washington got the ball on the Redskins' 40, advanced 25 yards to the Tennessee 35 and then . . . punted while losing in the second half? And that for their trouble Tennessee wound up with the ball on their 27 yard line?
« Alternations | Main | What About The Bad News? »
More Puntmania
15 Oct 2006 05:42 pm
Comments (15)
Come on, Matt. Tell the whole story. After getting the ball on their 27, Tennessee went 3 and out and then punted to the Washington 44. Using this wonderful field position, the Redskins proceeded to score the go ahead touchdown. You are looking too hard for examples that prove your theory. This example works against your logic.
I tend to agree with you, and coaches do have a tendency to punt a bit too much. But let's be honest. Football management and coaching is a bit outside your area of expertise.
Wahington pooch-punted from the Tennessee 35(the down was 4th and 14), to the 15 yardline, and Pac Man Jones had a decent return, back to the 27 yard line. The problem there is kick coverage.
Washington then held the opposing team to a 3 and out, and got the ball back in great field position. Three plays later, Washington scored and they had the lead.
I think that is an example that is NOT in your favor. I wonder, what exactly do you think the percentage of successful 4th an 14's was in the NFL last year? I'd guess not high.
At least Gibbs knew he wanted to punt. What really gripes my soul in that situation is when the coach winds up going for it on fourth down in that situation - but doesn't treat it like a two-down situation on third down.
But even with 4th and 14, when you're at the opponent's 35, there's just too little to be gained from a punt - while you might do better, you really can't count on putting the other team back any further than the 10. Either go for the FG or the first down; forget the silly punt.
I agree that teams don't go for it often enough, but 4th and 14? the odds that they get the first down are miniscule. Adam Archuleta is a pretty good punter too, so they probably figured the odds of getting Tennessee stuck deep were decent. This isn't a very good example of coaches being too conservative.
Excuse me, Pac-Man Jones had a short return, and Tennessee took over on their own 18, not their 27 as Matt had said.
Matt, you did not read the chart correctly. After the punt, Tennessee took over on their own 18. Tennessee took over at their own 27 following the kick-off - which occurred due to the touchdown after the awesome field management of Joe Gibbs.
Pretty easy call actually. We all know what USC and Pete Carroll would have called, but it was the first drive in the 4th quarter, only down by a touchdown, and 4th and 14. The Skins' kicker must really suck, as that was a makeable field goal, so it made sense what Gibbs called. A one-possession game as the 4th quarter begins really accentuates that notion that football is a game of field position. It's too bad the punter sucks. The Skins did get it back 3 and out and score a touchdown and 2-point conversion on the next drive to tie it, so it's hard to fault this decision in the game. Always go to the "Play-By-Play" link instead of the drive chart...more enlightening.
Poor Matthew. Stuck in Washington. All you gotta do is trade your owner. He needs to learn what Jeff Lurie learned after a few years srewing up the Eagles: You ain't as smart as you think your are.
Daniel Snyder needs to give the kind of free rein to Joe Gibbs that Lurie gave to Andy Reid.
Don't be fooled by today's loss to the Saints: gift to our brothers and sisters in NO LA. Eagles WILL be in the Superbowl this year. And McNabb won't choke this time.
Hmmmm. Can we go back to the science on this (the Romer paper), people?
According to Romer's paper, the 35-yard line is the exact place when going for it has the MOST value. Romer says that, when you're on the 35 yeard line, you should go for it on 4th down if you have 9 yards to go or less, with standard error bands between 6 yards to go and 13 yards to go. That means that, according to Romer, it is fully possible that it would be appropriate to go for it on up to 4th and 13.
Now, you say that it was 4th and 14, so even if we were looking at the maximum error in Romer's paper, it wouldn't have been appropriate to go for it. Nonetheless, perhaps, given the game situation, it would have been proper to go for it even if it was slightly less valuable to go for it than to kick it away.
Oh, I misread the title. I thought this was going to be another post about Putnam . . . .
Field goal anyone. The 30-40% chance of making a 52 yarder is far better than any (likely miniscule) chance of getting a signficant field position advantage with a punt.
Don't forget that a missed field goal returns to the spot of the kick, not the line of scrimmage, so if they'd missed the FG, the Titans would have had it on the 42.
Same thing happened in the USC-Arizona State game. Arizona State was down 7 points with less than 2 minutes left and decided to punt when faced with a 4th and long from their own 40 or something.
USC promptly ran out the clock with 3 running plays without gaining a first down due to the new rule that keeps the clock running when posession changes.
So what was the point of punting? To throw away the game?
What kills me with these late game punts is that the coach is depending on his defense to force a 3-and-out on the opposing team, otherwise the game is over. If the defense absolutely MUST force a 3-and-out to give them a chance then what does it really matter WHERE on the field they do it? The 50 yard line is as good as the 20. Why not just go for it and if you don't make the first down your defense still gets its chance to do a 3-and-out.
I have to disagree as well. I think you are probably right that teams punt too much and should go for it more often on 4th and 5 or less situations past midfield. But I think the analysis misses the advantage of pinning your opponent relatively deep and possibly improving your field position on the next drive. Obviously, a coach would have to factor in how good he believes his defense is, but if you have a really great defense it might make more sense to play it safe.
Doesn't the fact that they promptly held the Titans to a 3 and out make the case for going for it even stronger? 4th and 14 is a long shot, but if your D is playing that well the penalty for not making is pretty small.
All in all though as a Seahawks fan who just watched my team win with 3 4th Quarter FGs (2 49 yarders and a 54 yarder) I gotta say unless your playing in lousy weather if you have a kicker who you don't feel comfortable with trying a 52 yarder in today's game you need to get a new kicker.
Comments closed October 29, 2006.
| 
Heads in the Sand
4th and 14 at TEN 35 (13:31)
D.Frost punts 20 yards to TEN 15, Center-E.Albright. A.Jones to TEN 18 for 3 yards (A.Archuleta).
Posted by zAmboni | October 15, 2006 6:08 PM