What About The Bad News?

The shoe that hasn't really dropped so far in Iraq is the continuing unresolved status and borders of Kurdistan. As sectarian violence spreads into northern Iraq, including Kirkuk, you've got to figure we're getting closer to the dropping of that shoe. It's not clear to me from the article whether there was a specifically Kurdish angle to the Kirkuk incidents here, but one way or another nothing's going to go down in that town without Kurdish forces ending up involved.

Comments

For more on the undropped shoe, see this pearl-necklace of wisdom: http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20060724&s=ackerman072406

Posted by Spencer | October 16, 2006 12:18 AM

My recollection is that greater Kurdistan includes not only (famously) part of Turkey but also (less famously, and more ominously) part of Iran and Syria.

Posted by Kenneth Edward Hempel (aka Linus) | October 16, 2006 12:24 AM

Who didn't expect Kirkuk to go up in flames one day?

We've been putting off splitting up all the oil in that area in an equitable manner for years...guess the Iraqis have finally decided to settle this matter the old fashioned way.

Condi is probably dusting off one of her patented "who could have expected..." speeches tonight.

Posted by monkyboy | October 16, 2006 12:34 AM

Ralph Peters (via A Tiny Revolution) says that there are between 27 and 36 million Kurds in the ME. (Yes, I know he's crazy.) That's a big, messy number, and I think this is going to get very ugly, cunning plans notwithstanding.

What's the consensus view of The Dust of Empire?

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | October 16, 2006 12:59 AM

This shoe may not drop for years. I can well see the move for an independent Kurdistan involving part of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran bubbling up for decades. As was predicted by many before the war.

Posted by epistemology | October 16, 2006 8:56 AM

There are also Kurdish minorities in some of the former Soviet republics, though I don't know if they occupy a contiguous territory.

Posted by David Tomlin | October 16, 2006 9:08 AM

"There are also Kurdish minorities in some of the former Soviet republics, though I don't know if they occupy a contiguous territory."

And there are a lot of Jews in New York and New Jersey. That particular is contiguous but I don't detect a great deal of enthusiasm for an independent Jewish nation-state in the area.

Posted by Linus | October 16, 2006 2:42 PM