The widely-loathed and universally denounced Ann Coulter joins with the for-some-reason-considered-reputable Charles Krauthammer to argue that a 20-30 seat House swing in favor of the Democrats would be no big deal. They are, as Kevin Drum points out, totally full of shit.
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Drum Disposes
05 Nov 2006 10:38 am
Comments (19)
Kevin Drum's reasoning was a little weak in his article. He point out that the average party change in post-1980 sixth-year midterm elections is only five seats. Maybe so, but the fact also remains that there have been only two such elections, 1986 and 1998. Drawing any sweeping conclusions of a data set n=2 is a bit risky.
But he also points out that in the past 10 elections there's been one swing of over 20 seats. That's a better n; the sixth-year elections point proves that you can't blame it on the sixth-year election alone. (Though both Reagan and Clinton had already suffered big losses in their second years.)
the fact also remains that there have been only two such elections, 1986 and 1998
When Drum says the average swing in house races is less than 5, he's talking about all races in the last 20 years; it's actually n=10. The point about 6th year mid-terms was just an illustrative aside.
Or, what Weiner said.
pwned!
Though, I actually meant one swing of over 10 seats.
Krauthammmer's article was embarrassing. Just a parade of lies and bullshit. His "views" are as propagandistic as Coulter's, just less shrill & nutty.
My favorite of his lines had nothing to do with Iraq or the '06 election, but about DC getting two Senate seats. He declared that DC should vote with Maryland, as if that was a no-brainer. Of course DC is just as culturally connected to Virginia, as to MD, but VA's a state that could easily swing blue from time-to-time if the godless People's Republic of the District of Columbia voted with George Allen's statesmen.
Macacas crossing the Potomac; frightful indeed.
The point about 6th year mid-terms was just an illustrative aside.
Uh, no. It's a more relevant data set. The relevant n is 2.
Not that it makes a difference either way. N=10 is still too low an n to draw a relevant conclusion - either on Krauthammer's part or on Drum's part.
for-some-reason-considered-reputable Charles Krauthammer t
don't hate the playah :)
It's a more relevant data set. The relevant n is 2.
Thanks for pointing that out. Sixth-year mid-terms are (in theory at least) sui generis.
I'm not such a political nerd I have time to examine all the close house races (that would take getting the hard facts as well as a feel for all the toss up districts), but here is my very cursory, first (and last) glance at potential Democratic pickups. I don't believe Ms. Pelosi can at all be certain she will be the next house majority leader.
Probable Democratic pickups:
Arizona 8 Giffords
Colorado 7 Perimutter
Florida 13 Jennings
Indiana 2 Donnelly
Indiana 8 Ellsworth
Indiana 9 Hill
New York 24 Arcuri
Ohio 18 - Space
Pennsylvania 10 - Carney
Wisconsin 8 - Kagen
Possible (but in many cases doubtful) Democratic pickups:
Arizona 1 Simon (this is a rural district, and I think a doubtful pickup)
California 11 McNerny (doubtful)
Connecticut 2 Courtney (doubtful - most of the liberal special interest groups endorsed the Republican incumbent)
Connecticut 4 Farrell (doubtful - Shays probably wins)
Connecticut 5 Johnson (doubtful - this is the most conservative part of Connecticut)
Florida 16 Mahoney (this was Foley's district; if the Dems win it will be because people are too stupid to write in the Repub's name)
Illinois 6 Duckworth (this was Hyde's district - it still tilts Republican and is probably a doubtful pickup)
Iowa 1 Braley (this is a Democratic leaning swing district - could go either way...one to watch)
Iowa 2 Loebsack (doubtful - it's a close race but I think Leach wins)
Minnesota 6 Wetterling (doubtful - this is a GOP-leaning district and the Independent is more likely to take Democratic votes)
Nebraska 3 Kleeb (doubtful - this is a safe Republican district)
New Mexico 1 Madrid (another one to watch - it includes Albuquerque and environs)
New York 26 Jack Davis (another potential swing district, but doesn't include Buffalo itself [my guess is it stays GOP])
North Carolina 8 Kissell (this is on the border with South Carolina, won't happen)
North Carolina 11 Shuler (Dems can win Asheville but they'd need and won't get the rural areas)
Ohio 1 Cranley (this is a GOP-leaning district in SW Ohio; what would Dems do for small manufacturing again?)
Ohio 2 Wulsin (Schmidt is nuts but sadly they'll prefer nuts to Wulsin)
Pennsylvania 6 Murphy (another potential swing district but probably too rural for a Democratic pickup)
Pennsylvania 7 Sestak (a previously solid Republican district that is liable to become less so in the future [but not quite yet])
Pennslyvania 8 Murphy (yet another potential swing district but not quite yet)
Virginia 2 Kellam (a GOP-leaning district, not a likely pickup)
Linus, I agree that Pelosi can't be certain; but keep in mind that the Dems don't have to sweep your possibles. If they sweep your probables they only need 25% of the possibles, and that seems eminently doable. Take 8 of 10 probables (I'm less confident about Kagen and Jennings), they still need less than one-third of the possibles. So even if you have reason to believe that Dems are more likely than not to lose in each individual possible, they could still be very likely to get enough seats out of it.
Also, TX-22 is surely at least possible (writing in names is hard, if the voting machines are the ones they use in Lubbock, and I think they are); and FL-16 isn't actually a write-in campaign, which does tell against Mahoney's chances.
And here are my senate predictions...
Probable Democratic pickups:
Montana - Tester
Tennessee - Ford
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
I don't think Webb or McCaskill win, and I think Chafee keeps his seat.
Strike that last post. Here are my revised senate predictions...
Probable Democratic pickups:
Montana - Tester
Tennessee - Ford
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Possible Democratic pickups:
Missouri - McCaskill (this will depend I think on turnout, and it is a rare instance where an initiative [on stem cell research] is on the ballot that could boost turnout of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents)
Rhode Island - this one is too close to call; I still think Chafee could pull it off
I don't think Webb wins.
One final note re: the Missouri senate race: it seems perfectly possible that Republicans could vote for the stem cell initiative and for Talent. It's also perfectly possible that opposition to stem cell research could boost turnout among an otherwise somewhat demoralized Republican base (which won't be enough to defeat the initiative but may well be enough to put Talent over the top). I think the advantage may be slightly Talent.
One final note: I think Chafee has a very narrow advantage in Rhode Island (which is to say I have returned to my original predictions for the senate [with the caveat that the Missouri and Rhode Island races will be very close]).
I wish Ann Coulter were "universally denounced". Sadly, she is not.
I wish Ann Coulter were "universally denounced". Sadly, she is not.
I don't think Coulter's airing her own views. I think they're a game for her, as synthetic as a Letterman Top 10 list. Whenever she's interviewed she practically giggles at the arguments against her which are usually accurate and, since sooooo sincere, beside the point. The sincerity of her attackers tickles her since she's really got nothing at stake and the more attention she receives, the bigger her paycheck. She's the whoopie cushion of political discourse.
Comments closed November 19, 2006.
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Heads in the Sand
krauthammer is considered reputable? since when?
Posted by supersaurus | November 5, 2006 10:58 AM