In a "stark" "contrast" with 2004, the leaked exit polls are showing very good news for the Democrats. I'll believe it when I see something more solid. Fool me once, and so forth.
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Exit Polls
07 Nov 2006 06:17 pm
Comments (9)
Seriously. I feel like Lucy is teeing up the football. Argh.
No - those sound about right. Figuring a typical 2-5 point bias in favor of Democrats, you've got GOP wins in AZ, TN, toss ups in VA, MO, and Dem wins in RI, PA, OH, NJ, MT, MD. Which is pretty much what was expected.
but the 2004 exit polls did *not* fool you.
They accurately reflected the fact that the majority of Americans were voting for Kerry, and that Kerry was going to win in Ohio and lock up the electoral college.
Then the Republican fraudsters went to work.
And they will again this time--we'll just have to see how much they can distort the final outcome.
They accurately reflected the fact that the majority of Americans were voting for Kerry, and that Kerry was going to win in Ohio and lock up the electoral college.
Then the Republican fraudsters went to work.
So THAT'S where all my tin foil went to!
"but the 2004 exit polls did *not* fool you."
Nonsense. The Edison/Mitofsky exit polls have skewed Dem almost every single election cycle going back to the fucking 80's. Get a clue.
Ohio 2004 wasn't the election that confirmed my political cynicism. Florida 2000. Off the charts. Ignoring 100,000 ballots. That's Grand Theft Auto like Grandma used to make. So to speak.
Since then, I've become accustomed to living in a banana republic.
Yeah, if the exit pollsters themselves tell us that the exit polls are biased, I'm inclined to believe them.
OTOH, I don't think it's fair to blame the tin foil hat crowd for the misconception that exit polls are great at predicting winners. For that you have to point a finger at the talking heads every election night.
And as far as the exit polls themselves, I'm not really sure I see the point of them. They say they aren't designed to predict the outcome (or verify the outcome, the latter seeming like it would be a great feature to me) but explain the results--why given demographs voted a given way. Which makes sense--even if a poll is biased for Dems instead of Republicans, you wouldn't expect it to be biased for White Protestant Middle-Aged Female Rural Dems against White Protestant Middle-Aged Female Rural Republicans. But, then, if exit polls aren't particularly good at the determining the final outcome, why are they considered any more advantageous than pre-election polls, which in 2004 seemed to be closer to the mark, at least averaged together in my vague recollection?
I mean, I see the point of exit polls to the media--politics junkies glued to their seat all night.
I'll tell y'all what: it sure is better being here on the West Coast on Election Day. (Other times, too, but that's neither here nor there.)
We get a ton of projections by 7PM, so we know whether to start mourning or celebrating, rather than trying to last through an increasingly enervating late-night vote-watching session.
Comments closed November 21, 2006.
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Heads in the Sand
Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
Posted by otto | November 7, 2006 6:25 PM