Via Jim Henley, a FOIA request unearths a 1999 war game "Desert Crossing" about a military campaign aimed at deposing Saddam Hussein. Various interesting conclusions in here, but the most interesting one, from my perspective, is the conclusion that "we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."
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FOIA, I Love You
05 Nov 2006 10:41 am
Comments (9)
It's weird that the article's link to the archived report doesn't work, right?
This reveals a depth of cynicism and incompetence which actually extends well beyond previous understandings of said cynicism and incompetence. Stupid, proud, agenda-driven jerks often ignore the advice of independent experts and agencies that they nomailly compete with. In other words, it wasn't that much below par for the Pentagon to ignore intelligent contary advice from State and CIA. It was standard dysfunction and incompetence.
But to completely bury a study from the DoD itself less than five years ago...
In a just world, Tommy Franks would be in a prison cell.
Gen. Zinni (Central Command) was involved in drafting it, and some of the yearly revisions. He stated that, later, he asked some of Rumsfield's people how useful they had found the plans. He said that the guy looked at him blankly, and hadn't heard of it.
Cite: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A22922-2003Dec22?language=printer
He said that the guy looked at him blankly, and hadn't heard of it.
Also recounted in George Packer's The Assassins' Gate (p. 119).
Since Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld had an inkling or two hundred that their plan was doomed, I think it's reasonable to ask if there were another war game used to determine the number of troops required to make the war interminable without simply getting the soldiers butchered.
I believe that there's a reason why the war is interminable beyond the obstinacy of Rumsfeld, Cheney, and Bush to admit they were wrong. (Not that intellectual vanity that has such deadly consequences shouldn't be a crime as well.)
It's weird that the article's link to the archived report doesn't work, right?
It is weird. The correct link is here.
FOIA, I love you, won't you tell me your name?
I'd love to hear a Dem say this about Iraq:
1) Right now, Iraq is descending, not just into civil war, but into absolute chaos.
2) It would take at least half a million troops, quite possibly more, to stabilize Iraq and end the worst of the violence, if we could get them there tomorrow.
3)The only way for us to get half a million troops there is through a draft. Even supposing there were sufficient support for a draft, it would take over a year to pass enabling legislation, scale up our training programs, draft the troops, train them, and get them into action.
4) By then, though, the situation's likely to be far worse than it is now, since the situation's gotten steadily worse since May 2003. So figure we'd really need to draft troops for an army on the order of 800,000-1,000,000 troops in Iraq.
5) No way in hell that's gonna fly. So let's figure out how we're going to sidle towards the exit, okay? Particularly since:
6) We can't save Iraq with the army we've got, but we quite likely still can save Afghanistan, if we put more troops in there. And the only place to get those troops from is Iraq.
7) The question isn't whether we want to win or lose Iraq; we've already lost it. The question is whether we want to lose just one war, or lose both of them. I'd like to just lose one, and I bet you feel the same way.
Comments closed November 19, 2006.
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Heads in the Sand
Perhaps we'll soon learn if Rumsfeld's team had looked at it before they drafted their plan. It seems possible that some of the retired generals who have been speaking out (or Wes Clark?) were briefed on the results.
{Bush Administration Mindset Mode}
As comprehensive as the war games might have been, and no matter how much military experience the gamers might have had, in the end it was a Clinton Project, and therefore must be incorrect. So what that most of the war gamers had been in the military since before 1992, and owed their career advances to competence instead of politics. Clinton = wrong.
Furthermore, the war games were performed before uber-genius Donald Rumsfeld started his miraculous and complete transformation of the U.S. military.
{Bush Administration Mindset Mode}
Posted by meander | November 5, 2006 12:04 PM