I haven't actually been following the midterms especially closely for someone in my line of work, largely because my track record of election prognostication is very poor so I figured I'd just try and figure out what happened ex post, but lemme lay down a marker with my predictions: Democrats +4 in the Senate and +19 in the House. This is relatively downbeat compared to what you'll hear from some other folks, but remember that if you heard this prediction 12 months ago it would have sounded wildly optimistic.
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Prediction
07 Nov 2006 07:39 am
Comments (13)
Quite so. Even a razor-thin House majority would make a world of difference in practice.
Of course 8 months ago the Steelers were considered favorites.
Heck, that's wildly optimistic compared to what's on the Corner right now. Yesterday Jonah Goldberg posted predictions from a friend who has Dems winning a net of 12 in the House and 3 in the Senate. And let's not even get started on K-Lo's adorable, silly faith in Santorum.
Finally, finally, finally, though, it seems we're about to have an election after which we won't hear something along the lines of, "Well, Karl Rove pulled it off again."
Questions of committee control and legislative agenda aside, that's a huge moral victory in its own right.
I'll take that.
I think the House is still being rated far too Democratic. House race polls tend to have larger margins of error, and the Republicans are bound to flip a few Democratic seats that no one is currently predicting to flip.
I say, Dems +4 Senate, +12 House.
If the Dems do not take one house it is an absolute disaster. If they do, everything is fine.
Seriously, if that's all the dems win then the Republicans have cheated on a massive level. If the party lets this pass, I'm done. A lot of other people are going to be done too. This is democracy, and I'm sick of all the moderates who try and lower our expectations so we don't scream the bloody murder we should scream.
These are the same idiots who made sure we would never have a real election again by sitting on their asses when it really mattered 6 years ago. It's obvious now that 2000 should not have ended peacefully, and we're only going to see more and more corrupt electioneering because we let them get away with it.
What Mr Noah said, with the added note that Dem performance in House races will doubtlessly be bad enough that the Wednesday morning headlines all focus on Democrats' disappointing performance (despite gaining the majority). Not that it matters in terms of actual legislative power, but it could impact Dems' willingness to go balls-out against the Republican agenda.
It's tacky to post the same thing twice, but this time it's an actual predictions thread. My thoughts: 10-12 house seats go Democratic, and 4-6 senate seats.
Probable Democratic pickups:
Arizona 8 Giffords
Colorado 7 Perimutter
Florida 13 Jennings
Indiana 2 Donnelly
Indiana 8 Ellsworth
Indiana 9 Hill
New York 24 Arcuri
Ohio 18 - Space
Pennsylvania 10 - Carney
Wisconsin 8 - Kagen
Possible (but in many cases doubtful) Democratic pickups:
Arizona 1 Simon (this is a rural district, and I think a doubtful pickup)
California 11 McNerny (doubtful - this is a GOP-leaning suburban and rural district)
Connecticut 2 Courtney (doubtful - most of the liberal special interest groups endorsed the Republican incumbent)
Connecticut 4 Farrell (doubtful - Shays probably wins)
Connecticut 5 Johnson (doubtful - this is the most conservative part of Connecticut)
Florida 16 Mahoney (this was Foley's district - I don't think it's any less Republican than two months ago)
Illinois 6 Duckworth (this was Hyde's district - it still tilts Republican and is probably a doubtful pickup)
Iowa 1 Braley (this is a Democratic leaning swing district - could go either way...one to watch)
Iowa 2 Loebsack (doubtful - it's a close race but I think Leach wins)
Minnesota 6 Wetterling (doubtful - this is a GOP-leaning district and the Independent is more likely to take Democratic-leaning votes)
Nebraska 3 Kleeb (doubtful - this is a safe Republican district in a safely Republican state)
New Mexico 1 Madrid (another one to watch - it includes Albuquerque and environs)
New York 26 Jack Davis (another potential swing district down the road, but doesn't include Buffalo itself [my guess is it stays GOP now])
North Carolina 8 Kissell (this is on the border with South Carolina, won't happen)
North Carolina 11 Shuler (this may be a close race; Dems can win Asheville but they'd need and maybe won't get the rural areas)
Ohio 1 Cranley (this is a GOP-leaning district in SW Ohio; what would Dems do for small manufacturing again?)
Ohio 2 Wulsin (Schmidt is nuts but sadly they'll prefer nuts to Wulsin)
Pennsylvania 6 Murphy (another potential swing district but probably too rural for a Democratic pickup)
Pennsylvania 7 Sestak (a previously solid Republican district that is liable to become less so in the future [but not quite yet])
Pennslyvania 8 Murphy (yet another potential swing district but not quite yet)
Virginia 2 Kellam (a GOP-leaning district, not a likely pickup)
And here are my senate predictions...
Probable Democratic pickups:
Montana - Tester
Tennessee - Ford
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Possible Democratic pickups:
Missouri - McCaskill (this will depend I think on turnout, and it is a rare instance where an initiative [on stem cell research] is on the ballot that could boost turnout of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents [although it seems just as possible if not more likely that opposition to stem cell research will boost turnout among an otherwise demoralized Republican base even more {which won't be enough to defeat the initiative but may be enough to put Talent over the top}]. I think many Republicans will vote for the initiative and for Talent, and I think the advantage is still slightly Talent.)
Rhode Island - Whitehouse (too close to call but I think the advantage is slightly Chafee's)
I don't think Webb wins. Conservatives privately respect his service to his country but he's too liberal on social issues for southside and the DC suburbs don't turn out for congressional midterms.
"I haven't actually been following the midterms especially closely for someone in my line of work, largely because..."
...your worldview wildly underrates the importance of electoral politics.
"remember that if you heard this prediction 12 months ago it would have sounded wildly optimistic."
Huh? The wave was clearly visible in November 2005 to the naked eye. No binoculars needed.
And just for the record...
House +31
Senate +5
I change my mind about one thing. I still think the Missouri senate race could go either way, but I think McCaskill may have the slightest advantage.
Comments closed November 21, 2006.
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Heads in the Sand
A rundown of what your prediction would change in Washington:
1. Dems now have a strong chance to filibuster if Bush (God forbid) gets to appoint another SCJ. Even w/o JoMentum you gotta figure that no deal will be cut this time and Reid is in a good place to hold the party together.
2. The Dems take the house and get to run committee and investigate Bush/Cheney corruption.
3. Dems now set the agenda for legislation and although Bush won't let them pass much, they can certainly push popular programs like a minimum wage increase and force Dubya to either veto (against the will of 60% of Americans) or grudgingly sign on...
Sounds good to me!
Posted by Dan K | November 7, 2006 8:03 AM