Ebb and Flow

Iran's local elections seem to have gone poorly for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with his slate facing a variety of setbacks in local council elections. Someone who knows more about Iran than I do indicated that there was more significance in the results for something called the Experts' Council, where Ahmadinejad's allies also fared poorly. As Sam points out, however, despite all the attention he's gotten in the West, Ahmadinejad doesn't control Iran's foreign policy nor neither his ascendancy nor its reversal should have any potential implications. One doubts that such minor things as "recent events" or "accurate analysis of the Iranian government" will deter America's Iran hawks, however.

Speaking of which, two good policy papers on Iran out recent. Here's Justin Logan on why starting a war with Iran is a bad idea. Here's Flynt Leverett on how to strike a deal with Iran. And here's the White House trying to stop Leverett from publishing.

Comments

The Assembly of Experts will elect the next Faqih. Most Ahmadinejad allies did not survive the vetting process. Someone once suggested to me that Khamene'i was trying to use Ahmadinejad as a broom to sweep away his rivals; maybe there's something to that.

Posted by Brian Ulrich | December 18, 2006 3:28 PM

For all the neocons' scaremongering about Iran's nuclear ambitions, they're strangely silent about the fact that Iran has let its conventional weaponry stagnate. This is particularly true with respect to the primary tools of offensive warfare - tanks and combat aircraft. In both cases Iran's arsenal consists mainly of rotting old U.S.-built equipment acquired when the Shah was in power. Many of the tanks and aircraft probably aren't even operable today. While Iran has built up its short- and medium-range missiles, weapons of that sort are reasonably effective at making life difficult for countries in range but utterly useless for projecting force into other countries.
We aren't going to see a massive Iranian army storming through the streets of Tel Aviv anytime soon.

Posted by Peter | December 18, 2006 3:29 PM

neither his ascendancy nor its reversal should have any potential implications

Hard to believe it won't have anyimplications. At the very least, surely his use of the bully pulpit creates a political environment within Iran and in the neighboring region that we would usually deem unfavorable towards US interests. This is not nothing.

Posted by right | December 18, 2006 3:33 PM

Does Iran still have these?

Posted by Brian Ulrich | December 18, 2006 3:33 PM

Bobby Gates says we can't afford to fail in Iraq. Can we afford to die trying?

Posted by Hedley Lamarr | December 18, 2006 4:56 PM