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From Tragedy to Farce and Back Again

04 Dec 2006 11:37 pm

With Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's visit to Washington, one really might have thought that the cognitive dissonance from the White House would have gotten too intense for the Beltway press corps to keep covering administration "policymaking" with a straight face. Based on Sheryl Gay Stolberg's article one's hopes would be disappointed.

Really, truly do we need to take the idea that Hakim is the solution in Iraq even remotely seriously. The hope, it seems, is that more Hakim means less Muqtada, but what's the point? Why would we want to trade an upstart Iranian-backed vicious Shiite Islamist would-be theocrat for a more establishment-oriented Iranian-backed vicious Shiite Islamist would-be theocrat? Maybe this sort of gambit can win you ten points in Calvinball but here on planet earth we're rearranging deck chairs on the titanic. Or, perhaps, using the deck chairs to poke holes in the hull, hoping to avoid the iceberg by sinking the ship before the deadly collision occurs.

At any rate, now seems like a good time to revisit the political punditry of America's Worst Journalist, Charles Krauthammer, and his eerily prescient column of May 2, 2003:

Before the war even began, the critics were predicting that Iraq was going to be the Bay of Pigs (plus "Desert One, Beirut and Somalia," said the ever-hyperbolic Chris Matthews). A week into the war, we were told Iraq was Vietnam. Now, after the war, they're telling us that Iraq is Iran -- that Iraq's Shiite majority will turn it into another intolerant Islamic republic.

The critics were wrong every time. They are wrong again. Of course there are telegenic elements among the Shiites who would like fundamentalist rule by the clerics. But even the majority of Iranians oppose the rule of the mullahs and consider the Islamic revolution a disaster. The Shiite demonstrators in Iraqi streets represent a highly organized minority, many of whom are affiliated with, infiltrated by and financed by Tehran, the headquarters for 20 years of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

These Iranian-oriented Shiite extremists are analogous to the Soviet-oriented communists in immediate post-World War II Italy and France. They too had a foreign patron. They too had foreign sources of money, agents and influence. They too had a coherent ideology. And they too were highly organized even before the end of the war. They too made a bid for power. And failed.

There is no reason to believe that Iranian-inspired Shiite fundamentalists will be any more successful in Iraq.

Seriously, are there no firing offenses for columnists? Silly critics. Damian Penny hailed Krauthammer's genius

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Comments (18)

The irony deficiency in the neocon lexicon (to say nothing of republicans in general) is staggering. To be kind however think of chuck as a kinda tabula rasa meets etch-r-sketch. He writes an article as if nothing of his existed before and his hand having writ moves on, his head shakes releasing him of all worries of logic or consistency, and soon another screed will flow out. A virtuous cycle of ignorance then belligerence then ignorance again. The Tao of Krauthammer you might say, or maybe it's samsara ?

Why would we want to trade an upstart Iranian-backed vicious Shiite Islamist would-be theocrat for a more establishment-oriented Iranian-backed vicious Shiite Islamist would-be theocrat?

I've followed this as closely as just about anyone for the past three-plus years, and you know what I think the reason is? Adel Abdel-Mahdi of SCIRI, whom the party pushed as its candidate for prime minister earlier this year, went to the same elite Baghdad school as Ahmad Chalabi and Iyad Allawi. Thus, the Bushites think "this guy is someone we can deal with."

I wish to God I was joking.

Isn't that the goal in America today?

Get a good-paying job that you can't be fired from no matter how lazy or stupid you are?

I think such a system is known as an aristocracy...

As for Iraq, we're now in the process of deciding which side of the Civil War we're going to fight on.

Guess that makes the U.S. military a Christian militia now.

Look, ideology is one thing. But there is also someone's openness to acting as a U.S. puppet. It's pretty clear that Al-Sadr is not controllable. But maybe Al-Hakim is more open to working with Washington. Who knows what games are going on behind the scenes? I still don't understand what the actual purpose of this war was.

Actually, I do find that Krauthammer column prescient. I'd never seen the Iraq war opponents' arguments collated quite in that way, and looking at them in this order, they seem analytically brilliant. Krauthammer sees Iraq-war critics as having predicted first that Iraq would be Somalia; then that it would be Vietnam; and finally that it would be Iran. And, lo and behold, Iraq was first Somalia (the lynching of the security guards in Falluja, the US's invasion followed by retreat, rise of the local warlords). Then Vietnam (protracted involvement, vicious political division at home, rising costs, war-because-we-cannot-admit-defeat, official lying, etc.). And finally, in the phase we haven't quite yet entered but are approaching ever more quickly, Iran (the rise of a theocratic Shiite state).

It's like Krauthammer is channeling a voice from the future. Except when he hears it talking, he gives it the name "Iraq war opponents". Charles! Embrace your inner IWO!

What good are those ten points going to be when the score is already Q to 12? Especially when our Iraq policy is already smack in the middle of the Vortex Spot.

At first I thought this was just a throwaway comment, but I just realized that it is a perfectly valid principle similarly lost on Kristol & Kagan.

There ought to be a blog just to keep track of all of Krauthammer's idiotic historical analogies.

Geez, it is too much to ask from Matthew a bit of nuance? Like, maybe, the ability to tell the difference between an Iraqi political party that is friendly toward Iran and the Iranian rule by clerics? I mean, this is simple, simple stuff. It really is quite embarrassing that Matthew doesn't seem up to it. Let's hope his book rises above this simplistic post.

Like, maybe, the ability to tell the difference between an Iraqi political party that is friendly toward Iran and the Iranian rule by clerics?

Remind us, Al, which was the intended result of the invasion. Or even which is considered a good outcome by Krauthammer and the rest of the war hippies.

I think Matt has an open "a" tag at the end of his post.

Remind us, Al, which was the intended result of the invasion.

This is all part of The Decider's great Plan. We foolish mortals simply fail to perceive the Plan's awesomeness.

The intended result (at least in respect of the type of government) was a nascent democracy, rather than a theocracy. Which is exactly what we got.

There are no firing offenses if you support the war.

Easy answers to simple questions.

Right, a constitution that says no law may be made that contradicts the law of Islam looks nothing like a theocracy. A nation where armed gangs prowl the streets summarily executing blasphemers looks nothing like a theocracy. As long as you pay attention to nothing but labels, gee, we sure avoided that theocracy trap.

Please don't drag Calvinball into the Iraqi quagmire.

"But even the majority of Iranians oppose the rule of the mullahs and consider the Islamic revolution a disaster."

No doubt when we invade Iran, the'll welcome us with flowers . . .

"But even the majority of Iranians oppose the rule of the mullahs and consider the Islamic revolution a disaster."

Good to know Iranians and Americans on the same page about the current leadership of their respective countries.

What we have now is much worse than a theocracy. There is nothing worse than thousands of people being slaughtered on the streets in constant waves of uncontrolled violence (unless of course you're Al and the victims are Muslims in a faraway land and you get off on hearing about their deaths).


Comments closed December 18, 2006.

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