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Pre-emptive Strikes

05 Dec 2006 11:30 am

The Baker-Hamilton Commission's come in for its share of criticism from the right, but in my latest column the left speaks up: "Bipartisan adoption of the ISG's recommendations, in other words, may not solve America's Iraq problem, but it just might solve the Iraq problem facing the bipartisan American national security elite that got the country into this mess."

By my read of the working group’s personnel roster it is the case that the May-style neoconservative intellectuals who largely formulated the Bush Iraq policy and took the lead role in pushing for its implementation have been sidelined. Also scantily represented on the commission, however, is another important category of people -- those who saw the direction things were heading and took a strong stand against the march to war. I don't want to say that none of the experts here were against the war, which is almost certainly false. But while many of them wrote in support of invasion or worked for institutions like the Heritage Foundation or the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that backed it, virtually none of them -- none at all that I recognize -- engaged in public opposition to the war before it happened.

This, however, is just the very mix of silence, collaboration, and complicity on the part of "respectable," "credible," "mainstream" analysts that produced the war in the first place. The more courageous and farsighted voices who got things right were treated as marginal at the time and, shockingly, are still treated as marginal -- excluded from all the coolest bipartisan commissions.

Read it all at The American Prospect Online.

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Comments (15)

The solution to the tragic fiasco that is our occupation of Iraq, is to leave. The Baker Commission will do nothing to take us from Iraq and will be of no help to those who are devastated by yet another 13 American soldiers needlessly killed in Iraq this weekend. We must leave Iraq, immediately.

1) Well, if we're going to talk about the
"mix of silence, collaboration, and complicity
... that produced the war in the first place"
let's look two names on the list:
------
William B. Quandt
...Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle
East Policy, The Brookings Institution
Shibley Telhami
...Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center
for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution

2) I don't know Quandt or Telhami, but the name "Saban Center for Middle East Policy" certainly rings a bell. Hee hee hee

Founded by Haim Saban, the Israeli billionaire who --at around $14 Million --was the largest individual donor to the Democratic Party in the 2000-2002 election cycles.

I hope it will recalled that the record of the "realist" school--
Waltz, Betts, Jervis, Pape, Schelling--for prescience and passion in opposition to the Iraq war is unsurpassed. See the ad they took out in the New York Times in September of 2002.
www.geocities.com/tom_slouck/iraq/scholars_against_iraq_war.html

What they said then everyone can see now.
"# Even if we win easily, we have no plausible exit strategy. Iraq is a deeply divided society that the United States would have to occupy and police for many years to create a viable state.
"# Al Qaeda poses a greater threat to the U.S. than does Iraq. War with Iraq will jeopardize the campaign against al Qaeda by diverting resources and attention from that campaign and by increasing anti-Americanism around the globe."

If representatives of this viewpoint were excluded by Baker and Hamilton, that led to a substantial loss of acumen and discernment.

It's too bad Giuliani quit the Baker-Hamilton commision after a couple of months...he was the only one on it who has a future in politics.

Given his personal stake it the topic, the report might have been something more than a hamper to hide dirty laundy in.

Matt Yglesias: Trying to take the politics out of policy making. Good luck with that.

Matt, Pelosi has now nominated Murtha over Hoyer and Reyes rather than Harman. Murtha is identified with his speaking out against the war and Reyes was against it from the beginning, while Hoyer was a supporter and Harman is a hard-core defender of the war. I know that Pelosi has animosity for both Hoyer and Harman, but do you think her picks have anything to do with their positions on the war? Or was it just personal?

Kevin Drum wrote about this saying:

"There also seems to be more than a whiff of retribution here against any Democrat who supported the war resolution, and that strikes me as pretty counterproductive. After all, nearly half the Democratic caucus supported the resolution, and we really don't want to declare every one of these folks persona non grata on all issues related to national security."
Based on the outrage you express about how people who were wrong on the war are still treated as the serious ones in this column and other places, what do you think? Should Pelosi reward people for being against the war and punish those who supported it? Is doing so conterproductive? Inquiring minds want to know and all that.

Murtha was certainly picked because of the war issue. The Reyes issue is trickier. I'm not sure I get Kevin's objection - sure, we don't want to put anyone's head on a pike, but doesn't it make sense that we should listen to people who get big issues right and stop listening to people who get them wrong? Harman was really, really, really wrong on the war and the intelligence which supported it. Is it so awful to say gee, maybe she's not the person who should be in charge the next time there's important intelligence to be reviewed?

I don't get what Kevin finds so troubling about the simple notion of accountability.

Re representatives from the Saban Center being on the Baker Commission, I was kinda disappointed that Haim Saban didn't send his "Director of Research", Ken Pollack. Remember what
deep insights ole Ken gave us back in 2002 re Iraqi policy in his best selling book "The Threatening Storm"??
-----------
page xxvii(Introduction): "Today, we have information from key defectors and a consensus among knowledgable experts that the Iraqis are hard at work on such a [nuclear weapon development] program and that they have all the know-how and the technology to do it. The only question is how long it is going to take them....Because Iraq has natural uranium deposits, all the Iraqis need to do is build a process to enrich that uranium to weapons grade and then enrich enough to make one or more Hiroshima-sized weapons"

This is strictly speculation.

I wonder if it's only vanity behind the continuing marginalization of Iraq War opponents. (The neo-con sordid academicians? Yes, it's largely vanity. Let's not kid ourselves.) Particularly the marginalization of those who have been right from the start. I wonder if there isn't money involved. If your basic impulse is to NOT do something, either from prudence or habit, then you're not going to be advocating spending money. If you're not spending money, you're not helping out the people who spent money to send you to Washington.

So, the lesson for politicians and pundits is this: you can only be right if your analysis involves doing something costly. Not doing anything, if it involves actually not doing anything, isn't going to get you -- or your idea -- anywhere. You're job, should you decide to accept it, involves moving money around because its easier to filch moving money than money in stasis.

Like I said, this is strictly speculation. (And I'm the King of Bohemia.)

Some more deep foreign policy insights from Haim Saban's Center for Middle Eastern Policy. On December 19, 2002, in a Los Angeles Times op-ed "Lock and Load", the Director of Haim Saban's Center for Middle East Policy ,Martin Indyk
and "Director of Research" Kenneth Pollack, beat the drums for War on Iraq:
----------
"Saddam Hussein has failed to come clean. His denial of possessing any weapons of mass destruction makes that clear ... As former U.S. government officials who had access to the most sensitive U.S. intelligence on Iraq, we are well aware of Iraq's continued efforts to retain and enhance its weapons capabilities"
Ken and Marti then go on to advocate launching a war on Iraq.
[See http://www.brook.edu/views/op-ed...yk/ 20021219.htm ]
-----------
Ha ha ha. You can't BUY policy advice like that.
PS You might want to take that Web page down, Ken.

Ah, bugger. Link in last post didn't copy. Try this:
http://www.brook.edu/views/op-ed/indyk/20021219.htm

The Saban center does a lot of bad-to-mediocre work. Shibley Telhami, though, is very good (he also holds an Anwar Sadat Chair at the University of Maryland if you're interested in just going by names) probably the top guy in terms of actually looking at Arab public opinion on issues.

Mitch

"Matt, Pelosi has now nominated Murtha over Hoyer and Reyes rather than Harman. Murtha is identified with his speaking out against the war and Reyes was against it from the beginning, while Hoyer was a supporter and Harman is a hard-core defender of the war. I know that Pelosi has animosity for both Hoyer and Harman, but do you think her picks have anything to do with their positions on the war? Or was it just personal?"

Nancy Pelosi is supporting people for senior positions who are independent courageous thinkers who wish to bring us from the morass of Iraq.

Kevin Drum:

"There also seems to be more than a whiff of retribution here against any Democrat who supported the war resolution, and that strikes me as pretty counterproductive. After all, nearly half the Democratic caucus supported the resolution, and we really don't want to declare every one of these folks persona non grata on all issues related to national security."

Idiocy; what are Democrats still to support the craziness of the George Bush Presidency? Grow up, Kevin and learn what toughness is all about.

Democrats were elected because of oppostiion to the insane occupation of Iraq. Thank you, Nancy Pelosi for understanding.

Kevin Drum's warning to Democrats to not start a round of nutcutting re who enabled the Iraq War seems to have a nervous grin behind it. For example, look at some of the leftist bloggers who are beating on Bush today over the Iraq War.

Anyone remember Josh Marshall's review of Ken Pollack's "The Threatening Storm" back in November 2002??? See
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0211.marshall.html . Some excerpts:
-------------
" Pollack manages to eschew the cant, stupidity, and obfuscation which are the common currency of much of the current public debate over Iraq policy and has produced one of the key books--probably the key book--for anyone trying to grapple with the Iraq question. "
--------


Comments closed December 19, 2006.

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