Uh-Oh

I'm now wishing I'd paid more attention to that whole "Islamists take control in Somalia" story back from a few months ago. Apparently, we're looking at war: "The inevitability of war hangs over Mogadishu, Somalia’s bullet-pocked seaside capital. But unlike the internal anarchy that has consumed the country for 15 years, the looming battle is now with Ethiopia, threatening to further destabilize the troubled Horn of Africa."

I have, obviously, a very weak grasp of the specifics here. In a broad sense, though, giving Ethiopia "tacit approval" to begin "slipping soldiers across the border" seems like a mistake unless the idea was to deliberately try and start a Christians versus Muslims war in East Africa. Our track record of intervening in the region is not so hot:

Memories are still fresh of the botched American-led relief operation in the early 1990s, and more recently of the covert American effort to bolster Mogadishu’s warlords in an 11th-hour bid to prevent an Islamist takeover. That strategy backfired, driving more people into the arms of the Islamists.

“I’ll be honest,” said Sheik Muktar Robow Abu Monsur, the deputy security chief for the Islamists. “America is the best friend of Islam. It wakes up the sleeping Muslim.”

The concern in this case is that the Somali Islamists are too pro-terrorist, so we should help the Ethiopians intervene on behalf of Somalia's powerless de jure government but the potential for backfire seems obvious. Anyone know of any good East Africa websites to read?

Comments

well, you could start with allafrica.com. it's a pretty good news aggregator, although not specifically for East Africa.

Posted by joe | December 14, 2006 12:21 AM

I'm not sure it would really be a Christian vs. Muslim war since Muslims are the majority in Ethiopia- about 45%, it seems, w/ about 10-15% animist and the rest Christian. Still, it seems like a pretty bad situation.

Posted by Matt (not the famous one) | December 14, 2006 12:23 AM

The question is not whether we intervene but whether we try to stop the Ethiopians from doing so. They certainly don't need any prodding from us to act against a radical Islamist regime on their border. They're probably not insane enough to go to Mogadishu. More likely is trying to to establish a sort of buffer state centered around Baidoa. The positive outcome is that it could lead the Islamists to real negotiations for a more pluralistic, if not democratic, regime. The negative is a conflict that spirals out to the whole region. The Islamic Courts movement is unpleasant enough (note the public whippings scene in the article) to make this a close question. Would the Ethiopians listen to us if we did try to stop them?

Posted by rd | December 14, 2006 12:31 AM

Matt (not the famous one):

I'm guessing you are using CIA factbook numbers which are broad estimates based on sources that I'm unsure of (12% Animists is way out there, most non-Abrahamic faiths in Ethiopia aren't Animist). The 10+ year old Ethiopian census put the breakdown 61% Christian, 33% Muslim, and 5% traditional religions. Prime Minister Zenawi is Christian and the Ethiopian federal government is heavily Christian. If the Islamists want to (and I'm unsure to what degree they are doing it already) they can twist that as they like.

Posted by HK | December 14, 2006 1:32 AM

Which Somalia are we talking about? Because last I heard, there were three de facto states in Somalia.

Posted by Wade | December 14, 2006 2:09 AM

The one that's not Puntland or Somaliland.

Posted by teofilo | December 14, 2006 2:26 AM

Jonathan Edelstein is great, though he tends to only post on a situation when he has something meaningful to say. You can probably get a good outline from a few posts in his archives.

Posted by Brian Ulrich | December 14, 2006 4:05 AM

"though he tends to only post on a situation when he has something meaningful to say"

yeah, I hate that in bloggers. Violates the whole spirit of the blogging enterprise, you know?

Posted by kid bitzer | December 14, 2006 4:47 AM

For an ethiopian muslim perspective try http://ewenetethiopia.blogspot.com/index.html

She's anti-Ethiopian government, but alot of people are. has links to alot of other blogs as well

Posted by baroule | December 14, 2006 6:39 AM

The War Nerd's latest is on the Horn of Africa: "Somalia: Me So Horn-y" -
http://www.exile.ru/2006-December-01/war_nerd.html

He's a big fan of the third player in the Horn: little Eritrea, the Prussia of Africa.

Posted by Steve Sailer | December 14, 2006 6:51 AM

The vast majority of Somalis really, really dislike Ethiopia. This is why the Islamists have been as strong as they have - because they antagonize Ethiopia. This is why, despite a ceasefire over the summer, the ICU sent fighters towards Baidoa, in an attempt to provoke Ethiopia into actually fighting them. It doesn't matter that they only sent about 30 fighters - hardly enough to actually accomplish anything, but plenty to piss off Ethiopia. If Ethiopia sends lots more troops, then the ICU gets to declare a general jihad, to which a large number of Somalis will flock - not because they like the ICU, but because they really hate Ethiopia. It's a basic strategy - take unpopular cause, link it to popular cause, win hearts and minds.

Anyway, it's exactly this dynamic that led the US to propose the most recent UNSC resolution, which authorizes a regional security and training force to help the TFG. We're footing the bill, the Ugandans are supplying the troops. The idea is to create a buffer between the TFG and the ICU so that they can negotiate in good faith. Until now, every time they sit down, they hammer out an agreement, and then the ICU violates it and fights a little with the TFG (we've seen a number of assassination attempts and now a couple of suicide bombings - entirely new is Somalia). If we send a regional force, we eliminate Ethiopia's reason to send in troops and we eliminate the ICU's ability to negotiate in bad faith.

Regarding the political status of Somalia: there's a de facto independent regime in Somaliland, which has functioned since 1991, is democratic, and which has declared independence but has yet to recognize independence. I hope the AU does so soon. In Puntland, there's something of a stable government under the Darood clan, but they have not declared independence. The south, while not quite as simple as this, is divided between the ICU and the TFG. The US backs the TFG, which came into existence in 2004, because it represents the best chance to create a functioning, stable government that brings in multiple clans. Unfortunately, it's not working out so well. Best stuff to read on this is the International Crisis Group.

Posted by I Know a Guy Who Knows a Guy Who Knows a Guy Who Knows Actual Shit About Somalia | December 14, 2006 8:18 AM

Not directly relevant to this situation, although a fascinating window to the thinking of a new senator, James Webb's 1992 novel Something to Die For is about the US getting mixed up in a Eritrean-Ethiopean war for reasons of political distraction.

Posted by Brian | December 14, 2006 9:11 AM

"He's a big fan of the third player in the Horn: little Eritrea, the Prussia of Africa."

Let me guess, he calls them that because they still use WWI tactics?

The fact that we're encouraging more war in the chaotic mess that is Somalia is depressing. It's like our new slogan is an Islamist variation on "Better dead than red." And of course we aren't talking about Americans there.

Posted by daveNYC | December 14, 2006 9:44 AM

somalinet.com/news/
Ainashe.net
civilexpression.blogspot.com/

headheeb.blogmosis.com/archives/033239.html
headheeb.blogmosis.com/archives/032623.html
headheeb.blogmosis.com/archives/032996.html
headheeb.blogmosis.com/archives/033152.html

Posted by Ikram | December 14, 2006 10:03 AM

Memories are still fresh of the botched American-led relief operation in the early 1990s . . .

This is confusing the relief operation with the stabilization ('nation building') operation. The relief operation was at least moderately successful, feeding thousands of people.

Posted by David Tomlin | December 14, 2006 11:47 AM

While Ethiopia has a significant Muslim population, it is concentrated in the south and amongst less-favored ethnic groups (the key group here is the ethnic Somalis of the Ogaden region.) The government itself remains, if I remember correctly, dominated by the highland Amhara, who are predominantly Orthodox Christians.

And I second the Head Heeb.

Posted by mcsokrates | December 14, 2006 1:23 PM

Well considering the Ethopians are the only historically independent African my sympathies tend to lie with them--but by God if they are the ones that escalated this war that fucking sucks. Support them in defending the integrity of their borders but not in any offensives.

Posted by MNPundit | December 14, 2006 1:34 PM

And, I just read somewhere online that Libya (Quadaffi) hates Ethiopia, so . . . . buy those armament stocks now and pretty soon you'll be driving to church in a Lexus!

Posted by ferd | December 14, 2006 3:32 PM

My use of links (the horror) in my last attempt to comment appears to have led to it being swallowed by the spam filters, so it looks like you'll have to google them yourself, but check out the Power and Interest News Reports' Africa archive for a number of reports on Somalia over the past month. The Jamestown Foundation and CFR also have archives on the subject.

Posted by mc_masterchef | December 14, 2006 8:29 PM

Two words: Jello Biafra.

Posted by fishbane | December 16, 2006 2:44 PM