War On

Ethiopia decides to really go for it, unleashing warplanes to attack the Islamic Courts Movement that controls most of Somalia in support of that country's feeble de jure government. The Islamists are being supported by "several thousand soldiers from Eritrea" along with "a growing number of Muslim mercenaries from Yemen, Egypt, Syria and Libya who want to turn Somalia into the third front of jihad, after Iraq and Afghanistan." The Ethiopian military, meanwhile, has been trained and equipped by the United States, is the class of the region, and appears to be intervening in Somalia with American support:

The question now seems to be if Ethiopia will go into Mogadishu and try to finish off the Islamist military, which many fear could spur a long and ugly insurgency, or simply deal them enough of a blow to force them back to the negotiating table with the transitional government. Ethiopia’s prime minister recently told American officials that he could wipe out the Islamists “ in one to two weeks.”

I still don't know much about the Horn of Africa (I read this International Crisis Group material but it's all a bit outdated) but on general principles fear of spurring a long and ugly insurgency seems sound. A war under these circumstances would seem to have a basically religious character insofar as we agree with Jeffrey Gettleman's characterization that "While Somalia is almost purely Muslim, neighboring Ethiopia has a strong Christian identity, even though it is actually about half Muslim."

Comments

The CIA factbook says that Ethiopia is 40-45% Muslem and 35-40% Ethiopian Orthodox, with animist and "other" taking up the rest. Eritrea also has a sizable Christian population (Catholic, Coptic and Protestant), but the CIA doesn't break down how many Christians vs Muslems there are in Eritrea. But Eritrea and Ethiopea are arch-enemies, and their quarrel has nothing to do with religion.

The point is that a war between Ethiopia on one side and Somalia and Eritrea on the other side would have both Muslems and Christians fighting on both sides. Especially if Somali factions opposed to the Islamic Courts side with Ethiopia. So calling it a religious conflict is not strictly true--one side, the Islamic Courts, is Islamist, but willing to fight alongside Christians. The other side is mixed, as far as I can tell, and is mainly fighting for nationalist reasons.

Posted by RWB | December 24, 2006 11:40 AM

Ethiopia's own 1994 census came up with a much different ratio, 61 percent Christian, 33 percent Muslim, and the rest traditional religions. Most alarming seems to be Ethiopia's shockingly rapid population growth, which went from 37 million in 1984 to 53 million in 1994 to more than 70 million today. No wonder Ethiopia's so ready and willing to tangle with its neighbors-- it must have a huge pool of prime military age young men.

Posted by Hank Scorpio | December 24, 2006 12:13 PM

Huh. If you can't trust the CIA to give you good intelligence, then I don't know what this world is coming to! Heh. But I wonder if Ethiopia cooked the census books for political reasons? I'm not suggesting they did, nor do I even really know what the political reasons would be. It just seems strange that the two counts would be so different.

(And sorry for writing "Muslem" over and over again. Spelling brainfart...)

Posted by RWB | December 24, 2006 12:36 PM

The CIA factbook says that Ethiopia is 40-45% Muslem and 35-40% Ethiopian Orthodox, with animist and "other" taking up the rest.

My understanding is that the Ethiopian government and state apparatus is dominated by Christians, irregardless of exactly how large the Muslim minority is.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | December 24, 2006 12:46 PM

No wonder Ethiopia's so ready and willing to tangle with its neighbors-- it must have a huge pool of prime military age young men.

This is a total guess, but I imagine that population explosion has more to do with absorbing refugees than a baby boom.

I also find it incredibly hard to believe this foreign policy initiative came out of the Ethiopian regime all on their own. We almost certainly told them to do this.

Posted by Ed Marshall | December 24, 2006 12:47 PM

Washington must be giving a nod to this, and its frankly moronic. Its merely taking a policy that didn't work in the first place, but this time doing it even harder, like pretty much any US foreign policy disaster ever. Think of dialing a wrong number, and deciding that youll dial the same number but this time push the buttons really really hard. (apologies to whoever i stole this joke from).

The US's original plan was to counter the Council of Islamic Courts by backing various 'secular' warlords through the CIA. The point was to presumably create an environment where the internationally recognized government, which was based in Ethiopia and now in Badoia, Somalia, could waltz in to Mogadishu. Problem is, Somalis found out about it (the NYT strikes again...reporting facts...those bastards), and support for these warlords virtually dried up overnight. This made the CICs capture of Mogadishu and further cosolidation of power much, much easier.

Rather than learn from that mistake, the US has tolerated the Ethiopian backing of the recognized government as well as its troop presence in Somalia. Ethiopia has denied this presence, despite numerous eyewitness reports by locals and journalists of Ethiopian troops...well...standing around in Somalia, i guess.

These airstrikes are not only going to escalate the fighting, hundreds have already died in the past few weeks between CIC and government forces, but will more than likely rally most Somalis around the CIC as guardian against Ethiopia's aggression, forever delegitimize the internationally recognized government as a complete tool of that aggression, and create a battle-ready Islamist Somali state. you know, the exact opposite of what Washington was hoping for.

Add to all this the sordid complexity of the region and a regional war is not unlikely. Eritrea is rumored to be backing the CIC. Both are likely to start backing Ethiopian separatist groups, namely the Oromo Liberation Movement. The border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely to flare up again, since Ethiopia has still refused to cede the town of Badme which was required under the UN supervised ceasefire. Eritrea's dictator is probably thrilled, as the situation will offer even better circumstances to justify his repression. As if this werent bad enough, Somaliland, the relatively prosperous and stable part of Somalia, would like to make its break permanent, and judging by the CIC's rhetoric, theyre unlikely to let it go quietly.

In other words, exactly what the Horn didn't need...more pointless proxy and border wars, radical Islam, beefed up military budgets, repressed dissent, and lots and lots of suffering people. The US throughout has seemed to choose, by sheer idiocy (i hope), the path that makes all the most horrible scenarios more likely. Well done indeed

Posted by Mr. Todd | December 24, 2006 1:51 PM

When you think Somalia and Ethiopia, think France & Germany. Years and years of battles and tension over pieces of territory. Eritrea is the wild card, ready for any reason to get their war on with Ethiopia.

The religion angle misses the point. Neighbors make great enemies.

Wars in third world countries truly suck, because everywhere the infrastucture falls apart. And that means 1 of 2 babies born will be dead before their 5th birthday. This death rate continues long after y'all are done looking up stuff in the CIA Factbook.

The battlefield deaths are beside the point, and who really cares about the Ogaden Desert anyway. Oh right, 18 year old males with no future.

Posted by Peter Robinson | December 24, 2006 1:54 PM

"Muslim, neighboring Ethiopia has a strong Christian identity, even though it is actually about half Muslim.""

Well, you know, anything to get the chance to use your kewl warplanes even if it means stoking the flames of civil war in your own country.

Also, should any country most known in the world for literally millions of people starving to death have warplanes?

Posted by Linus | December 24, 2006 11:18 PM

Washington must be giving a nod to this, and its frankly moronic. Its merely taking a policy that didn't work in the first place, but this time doing it even harder, like pretty much any US foreign policy disaster ever.

I don't know, I think these African countries can pretty much just do whatever they want, since no one really cares what happens there.

Posted by Chad Okere | December 25, 2006 3:05 AM

I believe Ethiopia's East is strongly Muslim, so the Ethiopians must fear the Islamist militancy spreading there.

Posted by bob h | December 25, 2006 8:03 AM