Somiliblogging

I basically share Brad Plumer's take. Jonathan Edelstein tries to lay out two scenarios -- one optimistic and one pessimistic. His inclination is to be a pessimist. Obviously, though, nobody can know for certain about this kind of thing. Sufficiently wise leadership by various relevant actors could save the situation.

Comments

Sufficiently wise leadership by various relevant actors could save the situation.

If this whole blogging thing doesn't work out, maybe you could write horoscopes for a daily paper somewhere.

Posted by snark | January 7, 2007 12:35 PM

"Sufficiently wise leadership by various relevant actors could save the situation."

Shorter Matthew Yglesias: We're doomed.

Posted by michael farris | January 7, 2007 1:04 PM

Sufficiently wise leadership by various relevant actors could save the situation.

MY makes his bid to re-enter the world of responsible Beltway punditry.

Posted by SqueakyRat | January 7, 2007 1:09 PM

Well, the phrase in question is probably just Matt's dry-witted way of saying "Who the hell knows? Not me!"

Posted by live | January 7, 2007 4:10 PM

Is there a single instance of an African country in a terminal state of chaotic dissolution and active or dormant civil war which has actually been put back on the road to recovery through the intervention of a foreign peacekeeping force and disarming local militias?

Well, yes, I guess there are a few. Sierra Leone. Angola. And the UN peacekeeping force in eastern Congo has at least pushed a situation of low-grade persistent slaughter with occasional genocidal flareups towards one of mere nonlethal failed-state status.

But in general, "Disarm the militias" is starting to have the ring of "win the war on drugs".

Posted by brooksfoe | January 7, 2007 8:30 PM

Unjustified pessimism, brooksfoe. How many African countries are there where that approach hasn't worked recently? I think the odds are actually quite good.

Posted by ajay | January 8, 2007 6:54 AM