I find reports that it's unseasonably chilly in California at least somewhat reassuring. It's really warm here in DC -- "like California," I would say, except that it's cold in California. I was getting concerned that the entire planet was just going to burn up come August, but I guess it's all evening out in some sense. But what's happening? El Nino? I feel like weird weather always gets attributed to El Nino.
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Weather Inversion
15 Jan 2007 03:23 pm
Comments (29)
Global Warming is like a box of chocolates...
Maybe the unusual warmth in DC is related to Agent Zero being on fire? Hibachi!
It is, actually, El Niño. They don't seem to be talking as much about El Niño as they did back in '97, but I think that's because there was one in 2003 that didn't really do anything.
I have to wonder if you're an advocate for the "flyover country" mentality. Nothing in between Los Angeles and Washington DC is even taken into consideration in this post. "Like New Mexico" or "Like Arizona" or especially "Like Texas" would never enter your mind as a comparison. As for me, here in Utah we've been freezing our ass off with well below normal temperatures for months. I doubt you will ever set foot in our lovely state, however, so wave down at us on your next trip past.
It is El Nino. The easiest way the think about it is to know what it does to the jet stream. Anything above the jet stream gets cold air from Canada, anything below gets warm air. Normally in winter the jet stream dips to the south, over about the carolinas, which means the northeast is cold. This year, it's way up above New England. It is also way down in southern California in the west, which means they're getting weather that NE usually gets. See the latest here.
I read that it's supposed to return to a normal pattern next month.
Dude, I live in Southern Ca. Last night I left my ice cream out for an hour and it didn't melt. So yes, it's unseasonably cold here.
As for why I was eating ice cream in such wintery conditions, well, I really wanted ice cream. So there.
If I'm remembering correctly, during 'El Ninos' (sorry about no tilde, mis amigos), southern California should be getting slammed with rainstorm after rainstorm. (That is, El Nino years are often, though not always, associated with higher than average rainfall in L.A.) But there's been VERY little rain this winter. So I'd be surprised if there's an El Nino going right now.
And yes, it is colder than normal in L.A. right now. I grew up in Wisconsin, so I handle it better than many others here. People 'back east' will have trouble relating, but my apartment has only a single 'space heater' built into the wall in the living room - no central heat, or air conditioning for that matter. I don't think I've turned it on in the last 15 years. But I was thinking about it last night! When I got up this morning, it was 55 degrees in my apartment (right now, its 59).
Remember, its southern California. Lots of windows, and lousy insulation.
As for why I was eating ice cream in such wintery conditions, well, I really wanted ice cream. So there.
Yes, but you specifically had to eat it outdoors?
It's also the fact that "global warming" can be better understood as "global climate change." It's not just going to get much hotter everywhere - [the vast majority of the warming so far is in the polar regions, where it's quite substantial and works to really push up global averages even if the changes are only marginal in some places] - as it is going to get much weirder and more unstable everywhere. Things like the Gulf Stream shutting down (a prediction among many climate change models) could have the effect of substantially lower temperatures in Northern Europe, for example.
Overall, what's happening is that our period of nearly unprecedented (in global geologic terms) climactic stability is coming to an end. A lot of it is going to manifest itself in higher temperatures - some in colder - some in more extreme weather events - but the overall effect is going to be that things are just going to get very, very different.
It is indeed freaking cold in the Bay Area. Temperature are dropping below freezing at nights with the occasional layer of ice on the windshield. Nothing like "normal" north-east winters but very unusual.
December thru march are generally temperate and a bit rainy and gray but right now, it's just cold, windy and pretty darn dry. The wind is the real killer, although the bill from PGE is a close second :)
Weird, weird weather.
Ok, I have had 12 inches of rain at my house in central Austin in the last month. It has rained here for the last 3 days and will be in the 20's tonight with ice storms predicted. We are definitely getting somebody else's weather.
El nino? Goody. I like little boys.
Interestingly, some global warming research indicates that the resultant climate state we are moving towards will be similar to a strong ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) event.
JP - No, I was in my house! I left it on my desk while I did some other things and viola! Still in ice cream form a whole hour later. Admittedly, it doesn't feel that cold here, but I'm no meteorologist. I can't explain wind chills, nor can I explain why ice cream won't melt in my house yet not feel like I'm living in my freezer.
Yeah, it's cold. North of the Golden Gate wine country kind of cold. No leaves on the vines, rich people talking about barrel tasting kind of weather. Frost on the windshield that's beaten back after about five minuets worth blast of the heater.
Three winters in NYC were enough.
Real Climate on El Nino and global warming. Also, Mike Davis wrote a phenomenal book ("Late Victorian Holocausts") about how imperialism and El Nino events worked together to create "the third world."
It's been really cold here, North of the wine country in California (although a lot of our Lake County grapes end up in Sonoma/Napa wines, and we put out some good stuff as well). It's like Chicago weather without the snow. Windy, lows in the teens, highs in the 40s. The freaky thing to me is that last week, just before the cold settled in, I had a rose bush pop 5 flowers. Like it was a false Spring. Now I'll be lucky to save it.
Incidentally, NOOA says we are experiencing an El Niño.
www.noaa.org
What are all these robins doing in my NJ backyard this time of year? Or the cherry trees in bloom? What happens when the first hard cold snap hits?
El Nino being, of course, Spanish for "The Nino".
I WANT HOLYFIELD!
Nothing in between Los Angeles and Washington DC is even taken into consideration in this post. "Like New Mexico" or "Like Arizona" or especially "Like Texas" would never enter your mind as a comparison.
Perhaps no blogs that Matt has on his feedburner have posted recently on unseasonable weather in New Mexico, Arizona, or Texas? I used to live in Utah, and I live in Lubbock now, and this is a truly ridiculous complaint about "flyover country." Everything doesn't have to be about us, and that's OK.
I was just back home in Los Angeles for the weekend. Although the weather seemed fine (it was sunny and in the 50's during the day), if a bit cool, there was ice in our driveway each morning - like a sheet of ice. I've never seen that before.
Flew back to D.C. late last night - it was 68 degrees at 130 am.
Crazy - but looks like it's about to cool off fast.
The heat is only partially attributable to El Nino and not a big part.
A commenter on the RealClimate blog recently reported that the current El Nino is slight and only accounts for ~25% of the temperature anomalies. I don't understand how the calculations were made, but apparently the current temp anomalies are very large, and the heat in the puddle that is the current El Nino is not that great. Basically, the implication was that the extra heat in the atmosphere due to global warming is knocking established weather patterns to hell and gone. Several other discussions have emphasized that even though the projected increase in temps due to GW is spread out over 100 years, there's no guarantee that the steps will be gradual. Some may come with a rush over only a couple of years.
Maybe, uh, it's El Nino in combination with the long term trend of global warming. Washington's average January temperature has gone from 32 to 36 since 1970 (amazingly, I saw this statistic on one of the local weather reports, which usually strictly forbid mention of global warming).
Matthew: You also forget California's catastrophic, record setting heat wave this summer.
Yeah, El Nino. Thing is, I can remember the El Nino's of the past, and how they impacted New York City. And yeah, it was warmer. Like, lots of 40's, and a few outrageously warm 50's in January and February, maybe ONE extremely freakish low 60's day if things were really bizarro. It certainly wasnt the winter we're having this year, in which we havent even had a single sustained period in the 30's the entire winter, low 50's is the norm, and it hits as high as 70 in January. El Nino used to mean it would rain more in winter cuz it was just a little too warm for snow. Now it means you take a towel and a book to Prospect Park for some sunbathing in January.
In any case, El Nino itself is likely to be exacerbated by Global Warming.
Re; So I'd be surprised if there's an El Nino going right now.
Yes, there's an El Nino. That's why there were so few Atlantic hurricanes last summer. The weather pattern generates strong westerly winds aloft which hamper hurricane formation, and deflect those the do form back into the open ocean. Possibly the jet stream has dipped so far south that the rains you expect are going somewhere else instead.
i bet the chargers would have won if it was normal weather. so much for home field advantage. brady felt right at home.
more weather anomalies: snowing in austin.
(as for that climatic stability, is that what you call the little ice age a few hundred years ago and subsequent warming? or the perversely wet 20th century in much of the wet?)
Unseasonably cold? What season is it supposed to get cold in, then? I think you mean "unusually".
Comments closed January 29, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
The swag is phenomenal.
Posted by Petey | January 15, 2007 3:36 PM