Blatche!

Early in the season, I made a habit of loudly shouting "Blatche!" during the fourth quarter of games when the Wizards had a substantial lead, hoping to transform the prospect into a fan favorite victory cigar. Now that Antawn Jamison's hurt, though, Eddie Jordan is seeing fit to give him some meaningful minutes (17 each against Toronto, LA, and Seattle) and he's actually showing some promise instead of merely being "promising." He still can't play defense at all, however. Watching the Wizards over the past few season, I'd become more familiar than my 90s-Knicks-raised self would have thought possible with sub-par defensive performances, but Blatche is truly out of this world. He's regularly out of place, seems to have trouble remembering which player he's supposed to guard even during leisurely transitions, and he fouls constantly.

Speaking of young big men, ESPN The Magazine's "NEXT" feature always puzzles me, but simply proclaiming Dwight Howard big man of the future strikes me as odd. What about Greg Oden? What about Andrew Bynum? Maybe Howard will be better than those guys at the end of the day, or maybe he won't be, but it certainly doesn't look like a sure thing in Howard's favor, does it? The NBA may just be returning to the olden days when you could have more than one great center in the league at the same time.

Comments

"What about Greg Oden? What about Andrew Bynum? Maybe Howard will be better than those guys at the end of the day, or maybe he won't be, but it certainly doesn't look like a sure thing in Howard's favor, does it?"

While Howard is certainly not a sure thing, he does have the greatest physical gifts of all the young big men in the wake of Amare's knee surgery.

Physical gifts don't ensure future success, (see Miles, Darius), but when you're evaluating puppies, they're the obvious thing to focus upon.

Posted by Petey | February 6, 2007 10:11 AM

And I'll mention again, if you're into the 'zards, you ought to carve out 10 minutes of your day to watch the Gilbert / DeShawn $20,000 smackdown.

"I hope this don't fuck you up for tomorrow..."

Posted by Petey | February 6, 2007 10:15 AM

huh, whenever Blatche comes in the game I like to shout "Blatche it up", a clever (if I do say so myself) play off "ratch it up". Anyway Blatche is frequently out of place on defense, sure, but I like that he's a legit 7 feet and when he gets his arms up, as he did a couple of times last night, he can cause problems for opposing players when they are driving. I think they mentioned it on the TV broadcast last night, having to long guys in haywood and Blatche helps discourage trips to the basket, even if Blatche does occasionally switch to the wrong man. Lets not forget, the guy's only 20 and he missed college. Last night was exactly the kind of performance I'd like out of him, hustling after rebounds, etc.. He did miss two gimmie layups though. He's at least taking advantage of his chance more then Hayes is.

Oh and I get your point on Howard, kind of, by how exactly would Andrew Bynum fit in to that conversation with Howard and Oden? He's not on their level. What about Kevin Durant? That would be an inspired choice.

Posted by Jake | February 6, 2007 10:15 AM

I don't think you can say Howard has better "physical gifts" than Oden at this point. Oden appears to be a better shot blocker, for example, although it's hard to say exactly given the different competition.

Posted by Al | February 6, 2007 10:16 AM

Oh and I get your point on Howard, kind of, by how exactly would Andrew Bynum fit in to that conversation with Howard and Oden? He's not on their level.

Clearly, at the moment Howard is the better player. But compare Bynum this season to Howard's 2004-2005 campaign when he was the same age Bynum is this year. Bynum's rebound rate is slightly better, his assist ratio is higher, and his TS% is higher. Bynum's also bigger than Howard. If you made me bet, I'd probably pick that Howard will do better than Bynum over the long haul, but I don't see it as a sure thing by any means.

I'm a Greg Oden true believer at the end of the day. I'm not sure people talking about Kevin Durant fully appreciate that Oden is playing with the wrong hand.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | February 6, 2007 10:22 AM

Oden and what he's doing is quite remarkable, don't get me wrong. I think I fall more into the Bill Simmons camp though in that Durant is doing all his damage while facing the basket. Not to mention he's rail thin at this point. Put some pounds on the guy and he'll only get better, particularly in the post. Durant is averaging over 30 and 10 in conference play in the Big 12, as a freshman. He had 28 and 15 last night against a very good Texas A&M team. IMO he's got a larger upside, at least offensively (Oden is clearly beyond NBA-ready defensively, one hand or not).

Posted by Jake | February 6, 2007 10:35 AM

Oden has underwhelmed me, to be frank. He seems to vanish for alarmingly long stretches of the game, although clearly when he's paying attention he's a force.

Posted by Steve | February 6, 2007 10:40 AM

Howard? Bynum? Please.....it's Amare. And if Amare compares to anyone, it is Elvin Hayes....with a little Dr. J thrown in.

Posted by tupac | February 6, 2007 11:03 AM

Despite the clueless defense and bad passes, Blatche was indeed impressive last night… if he was in college right now he’d probably be rated as a mid to late late lottery pick. Getting him in the second round was a steal.

Does anyone know what his contract situation is?

Posted by RC | February 6, 2007 11:03 AM

How about Big Al Jefferson?

Posted by Berger | February 6, 2007 11:22 AM

the only defense that blatche and haywood seem capable of is off-ball/weak side shot blocking. for 7-footers, that should be a given, so that's not saying much.

Posted by looj | February 6, 2007 11:22 AM

Blatche has energy and quickness, and he's going to get stronger as he matures physically. There's no reason he can't become a pretty good defender eventually.

Posted by RC | February 6, 2007 11:51 AM

How about Big Al Jefferson?

Not actually all that big. I love him, I'm a Celtics fan, and I think he's a future multiple All Star, and if you want to talk about "bigs" then he's absolutely in this conversation...but even I, mister "Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Chris Webber, Dwight Howard, and Amare Stoudamire are CENTERS, dammit," think Jeff's too small to be a *true* center. That doesn't mean he can't be effective at the position, but he's just not a physical beast the way these other guys are. Nobody actually thinks he's 6'10" in his sneakers.

Posted by Quarterican | February 6, 2007 12:09 PM

Point taken - Al's not a center - but he is a Big: Moses Malone!

Posted by berger | February 6, 2007 12:41 PM

You people are psychotic. Oden may be very good, but he is by no means a sure HOFer. Given the AAU circuit for high schoolers, he may be playing against the weakest competition he has ever regularly faced. If, this weekend, I light up some middle school kids for 50, that doesn't mean I should go pro. Also, in the one game of his that I've watched, Oden appeared to have mediocre lateral speed.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | February 6, 2007 12:52 PM

"You people are psychotic. Oden may be very good, but he is by no means a sure HOFer"

Yup. I think there have been two "sure-fire" prospects in the past 15 years - Shaquille and LeBron - and two "almost sure-fire" prospects - Duncan and Yao.

Neither Oden nor Durant is in that league. I think pretty much any GM in the league would take Howard over Oden or Durant.

Posted by Petey | February 6, 2007 12:58 PM

I think Jefferson can become an excellent low post player, but as of now, he's definitely more on the finesse side of the equation. His hands are as soft as any young big guy I've watched and he's got pretty good timing in terms of rebounding, but he's got a long way to go on defense. Still, big men take time, so you never know.

I think what attracts people to Howard is his old school, Moses Malone-style game. The guy plays the way centers used to play - pure strength and power. He's kind of a sure thing as long as he stays healthy, since his hard-working, bruising, style of post play never goes out of style. The question is whether he develops a finesse game and becomes a go-to guy on offense, or becomes a bigger, stronger version of what he is. One thing's for sure: he should finish in the top-4 for rebounding for the next decade.

As for Oden, I'm a little concerned about the wrist. I know it hasn't been very long, but he seems to have zero mobility in his right hand and the wrist looked no better on Sunday then in his first game back. He's going to be a great player, but his success will be seriously stunted if he doesn't get the full range of motion back.

I love Durant. I just love Oden more (assuming the wrist heals). Why? Their respective positions and games. I believe dominant big men get teams farther than dominant perimeter players. Bill Simmons insists that Durant is new and different, but the question is how different. He might be bigger and more athletic than Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Kobe, Paul Pierce, and Carmelo Anthony - but at the end of the day, he's still a wingman with an outside game. And beyond Michael Jordan, there simply haven't been that many high scoring, high flying wingmen to lead their teams to titles.

Just for example, who would you rather have as a young franchise player: Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant? Clearly, the choice is Duncan. Even if Durant turns out to be 25% more productive than Kobe, making him, at worst, the second best wingman in history (behind Jordan), I'm still not sure he'll lead his team to titles without a big man. Just as Kobe probably won't win another title without Shaq. So I'm biased in favor of the center position when it comes to building a franchise. Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan...recent history gives the edge to the dominant big man. Except for Jordan, of course.

Posted by owenz | February 6, 2007 12:59 PM

. Just as Kobe probably won't win another title without Shaq

Wouldn't bet the house on it.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | February 6, 2007 1:12 PM

I too am a bit concerned about Oden's wrist - if he is still playing with one hand, maybe perhaps he shouldn't have come back so early? I'm not a doctor, but it seems to me that he might have gone for a bit more rehab before starting to play.

Re Durant: I clearly have not seen him play enough, but most vivd to me is the game against Villanova - he got completely shut down. Worse, he wasn't even really involved. My perception is skewed by that game, but I am not overly impressed yet.

Posted by Al | February 6, 2007 1:14 PM

Yup. I think there have been two "sure-fire" prospects in the past 15 years - Shaquille and LeBron - and two "almost sure-fire" prospects - Duncan and Yao.

Neither Oden nor Durant is in that league. I think pretty much any GM in the league would take Howard over Oden or Durant.

Have to disagree a little. I think Duncan was as sure-fire a prospect as Lebron, insofar as his game was clearly NBA ready. There was just no question he would be a star. No question at all. As for Yao, there were serious questions about whether he could play in the NBA at the time of the draft. In hindsight, a 7'6" guy with skills looks sure fire, but I recall a lot of skepticism before he stepped on the court (and even after his first season).

Oden would have been the #1 pick if he could have come out of high school after his junior year. So I think he's just a notch below Lebron in terms of hype, if not actual ability. For me, it's all about his wrist. If it heals, I think he's an absolute sure fire superstar. His size and athletic ability are way off the charts, I have no problem with his focus, considering the injury. If it doesn't heal, I still think he'll be a nice player, but his career will have a permanent "what if" asterick next to it.

Posted by owenz | February 6, 2007 1:15 PM

Whoever asked this earlier: as a second rounder, Blatche is probably on a non-guaranteed contract of about $500,000 for a year.

I think Simmons is on point when he identifies Oden's upside as being Ewing-like. That seems about right to me. 20 years ago, that makes him the undeniable best young big man in the game, but speed and versatility is so important now.

The NEXT thing is gimmicky and stupid, but it's supposed to recognize a charming, transcendent, culture-changing talent. And that's definitely more Howard than Oden.

Posted by Jerry | February 6, 2007 1:27 PM

Ewing came out in '85. Hakeem came out in '84. Do you really think there are that many people who prefer pro-Ewing to pro-Hakeem? I wouldn't, till this moment, have thought that there were any.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | February 6, 2007 1:30 PM

"Hakeem came out in '84"

Well, actually, Akeem came out in '84. Hakeem didn't come out 'til '91.

Thank you. Thank you. Please vote for this comment as the most pedantic blogospheric comment of the year!

Posted by Petey | February 6, 2007 1:36 PM

Barring injury, Durant is a lock for the HOF. Tall, quick, athletic, a leader, excellent 3 point shot, handles the ball well, loves to run and can rebound. He just turned 18 in September and yet he's 5th in the country in scoring (1st among tier one schools), hitting 40% from 3-point range, and 3rd in the country in rebounding.

Posted by ostap | February 6, 2007 1:37 PM

I am curious as to how many people commenting on Oden have actually seen him play with his right hand. My sense is not many. Watching him, it's very apparent to me that he's learning to play with his left hand on the fly -- and that there's a whole world of shots, moves, and skills he has but cannot currently display with his right hand. It just seems unfair to make definitive statements like "he is comparable to Pat Ewing" right now, when so few people have seen him play at peak levels. I mean, really, how do you (or Bill Simmons) know?

Posted by owenz | February 6, 2007 1:55 PM

It just seems unfair to make definitive statements like "he is comparable to Pat Ewing" right now, when so few people have seen him play at peak levels.

He is comparable to Patrick Ewing the year after he tore all the tendons in his shooting wrist?

Besides, how is comparing someone to Patrick Ewing in any way an insult? The guy may not have been the best center of his day, but he was clearly the second best. Maybe sometimes third.

Posted by Antid Oto | February 6, 2007 2:15 PM

The Dwight Howard phenomenon is all about the sports writers wanting to have hot gay sex with a sweet-faced beast. He's got a hot bod. I'm totally serious.

Posted by ogged | February 6, 2007 2:37 PM

The Dwight Howard phenomenon is all about the sports writers wanting to have hot gay sex with a sweet-faced beast. He's got a hot bod. I'm totally serious.

Then explain the lack of Kwame-love.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | February 6, 2007 2:39 PM

"Then explain the lack of Kwame-love."

Perhaps closeted gay sportswriters like cake.

Posted by Petey | February 6, 2007 2:48 PM

Besides, how is comparing someone to Patrick Ewing in any way an insult? The guy may not have been the best center of his day, but he was clearly the second best. Maybe sometimes third.

It's not an insult. I just don't see how it's an accurate comparison in any way. Pat Ewing entered the league as a pretty polished college player with 2-3 go to moves that were almost impossible to stop. Oden is a young kid with off the charts athletic ability...but we have no idea what kind of offensive moves he has.

My point is simply that any definitive predications about Oden seem premature. He could be a raw, athletic freak. Or he could have quite a polished offensive game. Until the wrist heals, how can we tell?

Posted by owenz | February 6, 2007 2:51 PM

"Perhaps closeted gay sportswriters like cake."

And I'm utterly convinced it will be in the first sentence of his obit:

Kwame Brown, onetime NBA player renowned for his cake throwing rampages...

Posted by Petey | February 6, 2007 2:55 PM

duncan has to have been about as surefire as LBJ -- he'd already dominated against far superior talent than LBJ faced in highschool, and then he went right out and did it in the NBA. put another way, duncan was not one of those duke-type centers where you weren't really sure they would pan out in the nba (that seems to have changed lately). the other fairly surefire guy in recent memory seemed to be melo (since proven to be pretty much correct).

Posted by dj superflat | February 6, 2007 6:38 PM

Barring injury, Durant is a lock for the HOF. Tall, quick, athletic, a leader, excellent 3 point shot, handles the ball well, loves to run and can rebound.

After Derrick Coleman, I cannot believe anyone's a lock for the HOF coming out of college. If you're of a certain age, there's a decent chance you regard Coleman's career as nearly the tragedy that was Bias's end (from a basketball point of view). This isn't a claim that Durant doesn't look great (though I haven't seen him play), but that we just aren't that good at picking out the very best players in a single draft, let alone the best players in a generation.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | February 6, 2007 7:38 PM

A few things about Oden are a little concerning to me. One is that on the Florida-OSU broadcast I could've sworn I heard one of the commentators say that one of his legs is longer than the other. One of my friends also remembers hearing that, and I just Googled "Greg Oden one leg shorter than the other" (sans quotes) and found this, so at least two other people heard the same thing (search for "Interesting to hear that" for the post). That can lead to chronic hip problems. He's also very slow on defensive rotations (from what I've seen) and his offensive game is still raw. I'm not sure how much of his domination stems from his skills and how much stems from the fact that he's a(n old) man among boys.

Posted by syzygy | February 6, 2007 8:19 PM

Having seen Blatche completely dominate the Raps on the offensive end during summer league, I couldn't believe he wasn't a hyped prospect coming into this season. Then I realized he was being guarded by Andrew Bynum, who seemed to be allergic to lateral movement; Bynum also dunked on Blatche numerous times. Blatche is one of those players who lacks the basketball sense gene. I would liken him to a defective Lamar Odom.

Posted by casey | February 6, 2007 8:27 PM

After Derrick Coleman, I cannot believe anyone's a lock for the HOF coming out of college. If you're of a certain age, there's a decent chance you regard Coleman's career as nearly the tragedy that was Bias's end (from a basketball point of view).

I remember watching Coleman play a game at 'Cuse where he heaved a desperation, 3/4 quarter court shot from the opposite free throw line. He nailed it. With his right hand...and he was a lefty. Absolutely uncanny. Normal people just can't do that.

One of the most purely gifted basketball players I've ever seen. The guy could do anything on a basketball court. And he threw it all away. Without question, could have rivaled Karl Malone's career statistics and overall success if he wasn't a complete idiot.

Posted by owenz | February 6, 2007 10:58 PM

I'm probably too late to this thread for my comment to make much of a splash, but since it's (mostly) the same comment as the last time I was too late to a Greg Oden-related thread that's ok.

Listen carefully: you're fooling yourself if you think Oden's coming out, UNLESS Ohio State wins the NCAA championship. If the Buckeyes win it all, he's gone; if they don't, he's not, for at least one more year.

Also: you boneheads talking about Greg's wrist are simply not watching enough of the Buckeyes. As someone who's watched every minute of every one of their games (like me, for instance) could tell you, his wrist - and, by extension, his offensive repertoire - is improving by leaps and bounds. He has a right-handed jump hook that is all but unstoppable when he has his shwerve on. Right now - when he's only been using it regularly for four or five games - he makes it about half the time.

Posted by El Caballo de Sangre | February 7, 2007 1:52 AM

Also: you boneheads talking about Greg's wrist are simply not watching enough of the Buckeyes. As someone who's watched every minute of every one of their games (like me, for instance) could tell you, his wrist - and, by extension, his offensive repertoire - is improving by leaps and bounds.

Watched him last night and will now retract my (boneheaded) statements about his wrist. It is clearly improving and he's using the right hand more often. As long as it fully heals, this period of learning to play with his left hand is going to be a huge benefit.

What I like is how he has fully integrated his game into OSU's team concept so nicely. Very impressive for such a young kid who's been told he's the next big thing for so long. I think there may be some questions about his intensity, but this is just the flip side of the coin when you're dealing with a smart kid who is trying to fit in. Obviously he could demand the ball and be more aggressive, but would that be a good thing?

Posted by owenz | February 7, 2007 10:29 AM