« And Then There's Rudy | Main | Seriously, This Again? » More Haywood Blogging15 Feb 2007 02:04 pm Ric Bucher writes: Laugh if you want, but Etan Thomas' -- and many analysts' -- favorite punching bag, has the team's best plus-minus ratio and the Wizards are 10-2 when he starts. Really? The only source of plus-minus I know of is 82 Games.com which has the Wizards' plus-minus leader as Gilbert Arenas. Just as you would think, after Arenas comes Caron Butler and after Butler comes Antawn Jamison. Haywood comes after Jamison. Comments (36)
Number two for the Lakers in plus/minus? Kwame Brown. Yeah, baby! 
The Wizards are 7-0 on days when I eat broccoli.
Number two for the Lakers in plus/minus? Kwame Brown. Number one for the Nets in plus/minus? Jason Collins. Which should pretty much destroy any credibility the stat has.
+/- numbers should be computed based on a multivariate regression model. The variables are which players are on the floor and the output is points differential. It shouldn't have much impact on star performers' numbers who are on the floor a lot, but it might help with guys who play 20-25 minutes a game. Do they play with other backups a lot or are they a starter who spends a lot of time on the floor with the A team?
Where are Rex Champan and Gheorghe Muresan on that fancypants table?
I've never been willing to spend the time sorting out +/-.
SomeCallMeTim: Sports like basketball are tough, b/c there are a lot of interaction effects. What you are pointing to is looking at the performance of 5 man teams. That's pretty useful- possibly the most useful aggregate type stat to a coach or manager. But it is a little different than what I am talking about. As fans, we kind of like to argue about who the best players are, or who is more valuable. You could use the 82game.com stats to compute what I'm talking about, but I want the impact of a single player with an attempt to separate the contribution from other players. To some extent, this is nonsense; players don't have individual contributions that add together like a simple sum, but its an approximation. The way you would do it is through a regression that has a variable that is 0 or 1 for each player on the team 0 in they're off the court, 1 if they're on. Then you do a regression to determine the predictive value of each of those variable on the score differential on court. Its not very hard to do if you have the raw data, and I think its better than simple +/- type data.
You want to find the variation in contribution per player as he cycles through different teammates. So Arenas always gets his points, no matter whom he plays with, but Haywood is dependent on a specific set of players to get his good outcomes. Is that correct?
I emailed Ric Bucher in 2003 after he wrote a column claiming the Spurs would be idiots not to trade for Jason Kidd, since Tony Parker was such a limited player. Tim Duncan was in need of a contract at the time, and I let Ric know that I didn't think adding Kidd's max deal made much sense considering the fact the Spurs just won a title with Parker, who was a nice 2nd year player. The whole email was very respectful - basically just me making an argument based on the facts. To say that Ric was a condescending prick in his response would be a gross understatement. I felt coated by slime after exchanging two or more three emails. Just an unbeliavably arrogant guy. I saved our exchange and sent him a follow up in 2005, after SA got another ring. No response.
SomeCallMeTime- that would be one way to put it, yes. Al- yes, that is what I am talking about. Its good to see that somebody has actually done this work. Apparently, I should be visiting 82games.com more regularly.
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Heads in the Sand
Here's an alternative +/-: NBA.com. It has Haywood third on the team over all and second on a per minute basis. 'Course that doesn't make Bucher right.
Posted by Al | February 15, 2007 2:41 PM