I keep not blogging about David Iglesias' firing from his U.S. Attorney's job in New Mexico because it doesn't seem like the central focus of the post should be our similar last names, but I can't really get past it. My last name frequently gets misspelled, so when I see blogs writing about "Iglesias" on some level my instinct is to assume they're talking about me. But, well, they aren't. Get over it. The salient thing about the involvement of Heather Wilson and Pete Domenici is that their seats are both somewhat vulnerable. Domenici, in particular, is a classic case of a guy who as a clean incumbent is hard to beat, but where the GOP could easily lose an open seat and/or a race where the incumbent is tainted by scandal. My understanding is that the strongest possible Democratic contenders have been shying away from entering the race unless Domenici decides to step down. They should probably reconsider that.
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Smells Like Pickup
02 Mar 2007 10:02 am
Comments (10)
Oh come on. It is all about you. And we love it.
After he's done testifying, I hope he considers more duets with Willie Nelson.
Seriously - doubtful Mr. Iglesias will have such a post-firing soft landing as his colleague Debra Yang.
How'd a Jewish kid end up with a last name of Church?
Petey's point seems a little pessimistic.
First, incumbents almost never lose.
Second, Wilson is a pretty entrenched incumbent who outspent her opponent by $1.6 million, not counting NRCC efforts. Madrid was an OK candidate but her deer-in-headlights moment late in the campaign was immediate commercial fodder. She only squeezed out an 875-vote victory. In 2006, the GOP incumbents who survived tough campaigns were more likely to be those early targets (Gerlach, Shays, Reichert, Pryce) with moderate credentials like Wilson; they were running hard for a year and a half. Wilson's district has a slightly D presidential lean. I don't think she's a goner, but not beating her in 2006 doesn't mean she's unbeatable.
Second, Domenici would be really hard to beat under normal circumstances, but an open seat would be a coin flip, especially when bth parties will be targeting NM pretty hard.
"Madrid was an OK candidate but her deer-in-headlights moment late in the campaign was immediate commercial fodder. She only squeezed out an 875-vote victory."
Both quite true.
But we didn't lose many Kerry CD's in '06, and I think the odds are against us having nearly as strong a wind at our backs in '08. I'd be reasonably un-nervous about '08 if I were Heather Wilson or Chris Shays. I think they're likely past their moment of greatest peril.
All of the above is true about Wilson until you factor in the scandal. If she is part of a concerted attempt to lean on U.S. Attorneys to go easy on Republican elected officials, and go hard on Democrats, that changes the dynamic completely (especially since she has a close shave pretty much every election).
we didn't lose many Kerry CD's in '06
I'll quibble with your point here. There weren't many R-held Kerry districts before 2006; we picked up about half of them.
Out of 18, we won 10 and lost 8. Two of those pickups were open seats. Some of the others were surprises; nearly all were very, very close. Many more of our pickups were in Bush districts, including several where the challenge was unexpected and thus not taken very seriously.
Among the 8 we missed were some of the D-Trip's most heavily targeted seats (Shays, Gerlach, Wilson, Reichert). The fact that they were targeted early and hard by the Democrats meant that the GOP dumped huge amounts of money to save them.
I agree that Wilson should be less worried now than in 2008, but that's never going to be a "safe" district for her. It's always one that should be targeted, and hammering Wilson on a scandal helps soften her up for that purpose.
"Out of 18, we won 10 and lost 8."
I love actual numbers.
"It's always one that should be targeted, and hammering Wilson on a scandal helps soften her up for that purpose."
No doubt.
Sorry, isn't "Iglesias" a more correct spelling?
Comments closed March 16, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
If we couldn't take Wilson down in the perfect storm of '06 with a well-suported candidate, I wouldn't bet on taking her down in '08. She's a terrifically strong candidate - very good on TV with a very good resume. In fact, if Domenici doesn't run, I'd expect her to win the Senate seat unless it's another extraordinarily good year for us nationally.
As to Domenici, even with the Yglesias (sic) scandal, I still wouldn't advise a Dem contender to take Domenici on if he cared about losing. (Of course, if the Attorney scandal has legs - which I'm guessing it won't - all bets are off.)
Posted by Petey | March 2, 2007 11:26 AM