The Madness

One astounding fact I notice each year as "March Madness" descends upon is that people who cover the NBA appear to believe that NBA GMs will be non-trivially swayed in their drafting decisions by team success enjoyed by amateur athletes playing in a single-elimination tournament. I think that's crazy. Precisely what's fun about the NCAA Tournament -- what puts the madness into March -- is that the tournament format makes the ultimate outcomes fairly random. It might make some sense to super-weight a player's individual performance during the Tournament since, presumably, you're getting a look at how the guy responds to pressure and to a somewhat more consistent level of competition than you see in the regular season. But Chad Ford says that "if Texas A&M struggles early, [Acie Law] could slide behind all of the freshmen point guards with NBA potential" and that "if [Mike Conley] can help lead Ohio State to a NCAA title as a freshman, a number of GMs will come calling in the mid-to- late first round."

It's a six-round single-elimination tournament! A team that wins 89 percent of the time wins six in a row less than half the time. This just can't be your decisive factor in assessing whether Law is better than Conley. TNR has a March Madness blog, incidentally, for tournament coverage. I'll be rooting for Texas out of deference to the roommate and because I saw Kevin Durant play live in high school so I feel like I discovered him even though every scout in the country already knew all about him.

Comments

Hook 'em Horns woo!

Here's hoping that Rick Barnes learns the individual-performance mantra. He needs to play Durant like he has a star on his hands.

Posted by Kriston | March 13, 2007 11:06 AM

"Hook 'em Horns woo!"

Dude, not that you're living in the big city, shouldn't you start pursuing big city pleasures like the NBA to replace your rustic bumpkin-isms?

For example, within a month after hitting cosmopolitan-ville for the first time, I gave up dating my sister. It was hard at the time, but in retrospect, it was the socially appropriate thing to do, not to mention that it opened up a whole world of non-insenstual women to date.

Posted by Petey | March 13, 2007 11:18 AM

I'm surprised Ford would say that sort of thing as well. I remember back in '96, when John Wallace led Syracuse to the Final Four, a lot of people were talking about how he had improved his stock in the draft. There was speculation that he had played himself into the lottery, right alongside the Big 3 players in the Big East that year (Iverson, Ray Allen, Kerry Kittles), but he wasn't picked until #18 in the first round, by the Knicks. He had generally been considered very talented but a bit of a head case, so even though his tourney performance was better than those other guys (none of them got to the Final Four), he didn't move up in the draft. And, indeed, he was more or less a bust in the NBA.

Posted by Haggai | March 13, 2007 11:19 AM

Your constant deference to your roommate on matters of collegiate fandom is a bit distressing, though I recognize that you didn't exactly grow up on a city full of college sports powerhouses. Nevertheless, my attitude has always been, when I have no dog in the fight, to root against my roommates' teams. Does that make me a bad person? (So, in your case, you should be rooting for A&M.) At very least, why not go the way you did with the NBA and just adopt one of the D.C. teams?

Posted by jhupp | March 13, 2007 11:39 AM

what's fun about the NCAA Tournament -- what puts the madness into March -- is that the tournament format makes the ultimate outcomes fairly random.

And that's what makes any and all pools in which you're involved so fun as well. No matter how much the experts on t.v. and the "experts" in the office bloviate, you have just as solid a chance of predicting at least as well - if not better - than they do.

Posted by Shawn | March 13, 2007 11:41 AM

Petey, there's nothing you can say to make me give up dating your sister.

Posted by Kriston | March 13, 2007 11:43 AM

It's not dating if you have to pay for it, Capps. It's "dating."

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | March 13, 2007 11:48 AM

It's more of a hooking up thing. Why buy the house, when I can throw a rock through the front window for free?

Posted by Kriston | March 13, 2007 12:00 PM

agreed. who were those guys on the last UCLA champion again? otoh, i wonder if Wally Sczerbiak was really on anybody's radar until Miami of Ohio made it to the sweet 16 a couple times.

Posted by paperpusher | March 13, 2007 12:02 PM

Does that make me a bad person? (So, in your case, you should be rooting for A&M.) At very least, why not go the way you did with the NBA and just adopt one of the D.C. teams?

I back the Red Raiders in football pursuits. Guns up! As for the DC teams, the thing is that Georgetown and GW students are intolerable. I'd gladly root for Howard and, like everyone, was psyched about George Mason last year.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | March 13, 2007 12:03 PM

That guns up shit is what's intolerable.

Maryland is the obvious choice, but their fans are annoying—not because they're fanatical but because they're really not. Terps win, fans sort of cheer, woo.

Posted by Kriston | March 13, 2007 12:12 PM

Fuck Maryland. I grew up on ACC basketball. There are two first-rate programs in the league (you can guess who they are), but the Terps have somehow gotten the idea that they're right up there too. Sorry, Turtles, no one fears you. One national championship and a host of overperforming thugs does not an elite program make. And tell your fans to stop storming the court when you win games you're supposed to win anyway.

Oh yeah, and did I mention we play 'em in the first round this year? Go Davidson!

Posted by Ashish George | March 13, 2007 12:29 PM

Maryland is the obvious choice, but their fans are annoying—not because they're fanatical but because they're really not.

MY's complaints notwithstanding, you should be supporting G'Town. I can totally picture you working the t-shirt+jersey look of the 80s, Capps. Fuck, that's how you should meet each and every day of the rest of your life.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | March 13, 2007 12:39 PM

paperpusher-- Bryce Drew, too.

There's surely some overblown claims as to the impact of these few games on a guy's draft status, but drafts are far from a 100% rational process. There's a lot of stock rising-stock falling stuff. Think about Vince Young, or combine heroes like Mike Mamula.

Posted by Elvis Elvisberg | March 13, 2007 12:44 PM

What about Carmelo Anthony?

Posted by Freddie | March 13, 2007 12:58 PM

Given that I was in Vegas I had 20 bucks on Texas and had to watch while they pulled their world-historical choke job (how many fucking unguarded threes are you going to let them shoot?) Sunday, I will be rotting heartily for them to be eliminated in the most humiliating way possible.

Posted by Scott Lemieux | March 13, 2007 1:00 PM

I doubt that Anthony would have slipped very much, if at all, in the draft if Syracuse hadn't won the title that year. Even before the tournament started, he was clearly going to be one of the highest picks in the draft. And Wade also led his team to a surprising Final Four berth that year, but it's not like he was obscure before that--he was a first team All-American that season.

Posted by Haggai | March 13, 2007 1:03 PM

As for the DC teams, the thing is that Georgetown and GW students are intolerable.

Screw you, ya preppy Harvard brat. Go Hoyas!

Maryland is the obvious choice, but their fans are annoying—not because they're fanatical but because they're really not. Terps win, fans sort of cheer, woo.

I think you're forgetting the "whole scale looting and burning of College Park" part.

Posted by Cain | March 13, 2007 1:28 PM

Another case in point: Paul Pierce slipped to the Celtics as the #10 pick in the 1998 draft partly because Kansas was upset by Rhode Island in the second round of that year's NCAA Tournament. That was a boon for Boston and it made me happy.

Scouts generally understand that success in college doesn't always translate to success in the NBA (see: Mateen Cleaves). That's why ACC Player of the Year Jared Dudley might not be drafted but his teammate Sean Williams, who was kicked off the Boston College team in mid-season, will still be a first-round pick.

With all of that in mind, though, the tourney is a good chance to see how a guy responds under pressure. Will he start bawling at mid-court like Adam Morrison?

Posted by Dimmy Karras | March 13, 2007 2:02 PM

Screw you, ya preppy Harvard brat. Go Hoyas!

Oh, yeah, no preppies at Georgetown. That's the very face of working class America over there.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | March 13, 2007 2:12 PM

I didn't say Marylanders weren't thugs—it just seems that they're more concerned with rioting than basketball. It's not a basketball state, it's not an historic program, so it doesn't surprise me.

Posted by Kriston | March 13, 2007 2:19 PM

Reading Ford's comments, I do not think he was saying quite what you think he was saying. His comments about players moving up in the draft if their teams do well seem to be limited to point guards, whose contributions normally are harding to detect in a stat line. If a point guard is able to lead his team to victory under the pressure of the NCAA tourney, that might lead scouts to believe that his game will hold up in the NBA.

Posted by Ephus | March 13, 2007 2:26 PM

Go Buckeyes!

Posted by Matthew Struhar | March 13, 2007 2:30 PM

In addition to the obvious counterexamples like Carmello Anthony, I think Matt's also wrong on the meta-point here; the truth is, while the fact that there are 64 single-elimiination games and this makes the NCAA tournament "unpredictable" in the sense that there will always be quite a few upsets, the overall results are actually quite predictable. With the exception of Villanova in '85 and Arizona in '97, every team that has won in the last 30 years has been a clear top 10 team who either performed well in major conference play or who had established itself against tough nonconference opponents in the regular season. Yes, the number 1 seeds don't always win, but they don't always win in multiple game series playoff formats like the NBA either, do they?

The truth is, I always laugh when this or that team and its supporters complain about not making the tournament (e.g., Syracuse this year). Since the format went to 64/65 teams, there has NEVER been a team excluded from the tournament that could have WON the thing.

Sure, single elimination can mean that the theoretical "best" team will get eliminated many years, and 64 games will mean that there will be enough random results to make it almost impossible to predict an accurate bracket, but the NCAA tournament's CHAMPIONS almost always come from an entirely predictable elite set of teams.

Posted by Dilan Esper | March 13, 2007 2:31 PM

It's not a basketball state, it's not an historic program, so it doesn't surprise me.

That seems wrong to me. Lefty's teams were pretty good for a very long time, and the best high school program in the nation was, IIRC, in Baltimore.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | March 13, 2007 2:31 PM

Oh, yeah, no preppies at Georgetown. That's the very face of working class America over there.

So you're the only one allowed to sterotype based on university attendance, then?

Posted by Cain | March 13, 2007 2:50 PM

a host of overperforming thugs

Thugs? Really? Why do you say that?

Posted by Rambuncle | March 13, 2007 3:36 PM

I don't think it's a matter of the tournament being a determining factor as it is an opportunity to showcase your skills in front of the widest audience.

If A&M loses, Earl misses that opportunity to showcase his skills; an opportunity that will be taken by other players whose teams are successful.

Posted by JohnMcG | March 13, 2007 3:42 PM

Come on now, G'Town is a Catholic school. Ain't no preppies there. What happened, you get carded at the Tombs or something?

Hoya Saxa!

Posted by Al | March 13, 2007 3:58 PM

Don't you live with Catherine, too? Why no love for my Hoos?!?

Posted by Mike P | March 13, 2007 4:40 PM

Come on now, G'Town is a Catholic school. Ain't no preppies there. What happened, you get carded at the Tombs or something?

Well that's just ridiculous, of course there are preppies and rich kids at Georgetown. They're just Catholic rich preppies as opposed to Protestant rich preppies.

I'm not saying that there aren't douchbags at Georgetown; I certainly didn't like everyone I went to school with. My issue is with Matt labeling us all as intolerable, especially since there are many Hoyas who are hipsters, Democrats, policy wonks, and, oh yeah, people who read his blog regularly.

Posted by Cain | March 13, 2007 4:56 PM

So, who lasts longer Alberto Gonzales or Central Connecticut State?

Posted by Tiparillo | March 13, 2007 6:12 PM

You say "rioting in College Park" like it's a bad thing. It's our proudest tradition. That and our 13 percent hoops graduation rate.

Go Terps!

Posted by Alan in SF | March 13, 2007 6:25 PM

I'm not saying that there aren't douchbags at Georgetown; I certainly didn't like everyone I went to school with. My issue is with Matt labeling us all as intolerable, especially since there are many Hoyas who are hipsters, Democrats, policy wonks, and, oh yeah, people who read his blog regularly.

Allright, let me revise my claim. It's not "all G-Town students are douchebags" rather, the problem is that "G-Town students are, in general, douchebags" and I therefore refuse to root for their basketball team. And, yes, Harvard students are assholes. And, yes, there are exceptions to that. But it's still a campus full of assholes.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | March 13, 2007 8:44 PM

and I therefore refuse to root for their basketball team

No worries - the Hoyas don't need another fan.

But they had the most exciting season in recent memory - Big East regular season and tourney champs, Big East player of the year - the unselfish and super skilled Jeff Green - an improving and sometimes dominating legitimate big man in Roy Hibbert, promising freshmen DaJuan Summers and Vernon Macklin, and the manic Patrick Ewing Jr - plus Doc Rivers' kid.

It's a fun team to follow. Go Hoyas!

And, yes, Harvard students are assholes. And, yes, there are exceptions to that. But it's still a campus full of assholes.

So you refuse to root for their chess and debate teams?

Posted by SoCalJustice | March 13, 2007 9:10 PM

Perhaps Harvard fans would be intolerable if they ever had a team worth caring about! I am a PSU bball fan, so I shouldn't talk, but, my newly adopted school of Pitt is a 3 seed, hopefully they were just taking saturday night to rest for the tourney.

Posted by mrpetercollada | March 13, 2007 9:48 PM

"So, who lasts longer Alberto Gonzales or Central Connecticut State?"

CCS. Which gives AG just enough time to shred...

Posted by Bill Gardner | March 13, 2007 10:59 PM

"And, yes, Harvard students are assholes. And, yes, there are exceptions to that. But it's still a campus full of assholes."

As I said when asked to explain why I didn't apply to law school: "I went to Harvard. I already know how to be an asshole."

Posted by Bill Gardner | March 13, 2007 11:02 PM