« Arguing About Nothing | Main | Could Be! »

No Facts, We're Reporters!

03 Apr 2007 09:46 am

"I regard myself as a supply-sider for sure," Rudy Giuliani told Larry Kudlow on March 27, "I watched Ronald Reagan do it and learned it, saw it work. Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in." Thus, my latest column:

Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in. It's a nice idea. Nice, but not true. What's more, it's known to be untrue. Reagan did try it, but it didn't work.

Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in. Again, this is something Republicans like to say -- but it isn't true, and people who follow politics closely all know it isn't true. Elections, however, are decided by the broad mass of voters, the vast majority of whom don't follow politics especially closely. For that, they turn to the professionals -- the corps of campaign correspondents working for the country's major newspapers and television networks.

These professionals do follow politics closely and use their years of experience in the field to write stories that provide meaningful information to their readers. Thus a person who doesn't follow politics all that closely and reads an article about how Giuliani puts a debunked theory at the heart of his economic policy will come away newly in possession of that key piece of information. "Giuliani: Crank or Liar?" reads the headline, as the author explores whether Giuliani is deliberately misleading people or just too dumb to know the truth. That's how the papers cover the story, because the papers are in the business of informing their readers about politics. It's a no-brainer.

I kid, of course.

Read the rest!

Share This

Comments (16)

Only problem with your argument here is the facts.

Government revenue today is higher than it was before the Bush supply-side tax cuts.
The deficit doesn't exist because of changes on the tax side, it exists because of shifts on the spending side.

Government revenue today is higher than it was before the Bush supply-side tax cuts.

Here are some facts:

2000 1,004.5 207.3
2001 994.3 151.1
2002 858.3 148.0
2003 793.7 131.8
2004 809.0 189.4
2005 927.2 278.3
2006 1,043.9 353.9

The second column is the federal government's individual income tax revenue. The third column is corporate income tax revenue. (Figures in billions.)

Assuming that a tax cut does not impair the operations of government so much as to cause the collapse of the social order, in a growing economy, eventually tax revenues will rise to their previous level following a tax cut. Only profoundly stupid people believe that this means that tax cuts increase government tax revenues.

Giuliani believes in one thing, and that is Giuliani.

No real conservative would give him the time of day. I for one already signed the COnservative Exodus Project

http://www.conservativeexodusproject.com/

I'd never vote for him.


I think the view that tax cuts can increase tax revenue is a very narrow definition of supply-side economics. If Giuliani thinks that cutting federal tax rates beyond their current levels will increase revefnue, then he's a moron.

But the (supply-side) view that we should reduce tax on capital has some very reasonable men as proponents (e.g. Robert Lucas)

And I think that is another thing about Guiliani that will sink him -he can only produce the flatest and shortest one-liner platitudes and repeat them ad nauseum. He spits them out like a two-bit character actor playing the harried DA or CEO in a movie - a hard-bitten get-it-done sorta guy, too busy rushing to glorify himself the next epic emergency crisis situation spotlight to do anything other than breahthlessly spit out some short pithy platidudinous mush. And then repeat it over and over and over and... over... and over...

I listened to a couple of the guy's speeches on his recent California tours. Yeesh. He repeated crud like "Progress is making decisions and progressing ahead forward with those decisions, and making decisions based on going forward with progress." Lordy.

Guiliani: Empty, meet suit.

Yglesias is doing noble work here, and I am glad he is taking on Giuliani rep demolition as an ongoing project, a difficult ugly job, but someone needs to do it.

Is there a thorough or definitive debunking of supply side economics that I could read somewhere? Intuitively, if taxes are too high, they stifle (or cause negative) growth, which reduces revenue - and in general, lower taxes may increase growth which eventually increases revenue - but how long that "eventually" is, how much do tax cuts contribute to increased growth, when do we reach the point of diminishing returns from new tax cuts (i.e. are all 20% cuts equal - does going from 60% to 40% produce as much growth as going from 25% to 5%?), etc...

I know supply side economics is supposed to be thoroughly discredited, but has anyone taken the time to lay down how/why it's discredited?

Way back when, I seem to recall that Matt reported a colleague's explanation to him about why our press gets it wrong so often. It isn't because they don't know their stuff; it's for other reasons.

Nudge, nudge.

Of course, the first proponent of the "trickle down" theory was Andrew Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury for Presidents Harding, Coolidge and Hoover.

One of Reagen's old economic policy guys at CATO produced a paper not too long ago showing that cutting taxes did not lead to sufficient increased demand, economic growth, etc. to increase revenue. As Sebastian Mallaby pointed out in a column in the WP responding to the study, this can only work when you cut taxes from extraordinarily high rates (such as in the 70-90% range) by a great amount (e.g., moving from a 75% tax rate to a 35% tax rate). I am, however, too lazy to look up links for either of these arguments right now.

Since has been so thoroughly proven that lowering taxes will always create larger tax revenue, we simply have to reduce taxes to zero in order to create infinite tax revenues.

PG: In May 2002, the House Committee on the Budget tried to bully the CBO into admitting that their budget estimates must be flawed because they didn't treat all tax cuts as guaranteed revenue raisers. Dan Crippen, head of the CBO, testified in defense of the CBO's methods and in the course of that testimony knocked down a number of what might be called supply-side myths. The testimony is well worth reading.

Meant Giuliani, not Guiliani. I keep thinking his name is Ghoul-iani, which takes me to the misspelling. Sorry.

Noto: Lucas is not a supply-sider. Words mean what they mean. "Supply-sider", in the context of American politics, means that you believe (among other things) that cutting taxes will cause government revenue to grow.

Walt: I take your point. In political discourse "supply-sider" has a very clear meaning that is somewhat different from how academic economists use the term.

For what it's worth, Lucas made a late-career switch and became a self-described supply-sider (at least under the academic defition of the term). This is from the Oxford Economics Papers:

"The supply-side economists, if that is the right term for those whose research I have been discussing, have delivered the largest genuinely free lunch I have seen in 25 years in this business, and I believe we would have a better society if we followed their advice."

He argues in the paper that eliminating capital income taxation would increase the capital stock by 35 percent. The notation-heavy paper is behind the JSTOR gate here http://www.jstor.org/view/00307653/di015383/01p03147/0, and a nice interview with the Minneapolis Fed is here http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/93-06/int936.cfm.

Back in the 1970s, it was common around the world to see absurdly high marginal tax rates that were obviously destructive of economic wealth-creation, so much so that more revenue could be generated by lowering them. That's much, much less common today.

In effect, the supply siders won. Today's much more prosperous world owes them thanks.

But, like most movements, they refused to declare victory and disband, so they are still around even though we are now clearly into the left half of the Laffer Curve with most taxes.

Steve Sailer:

"Back in the 1970s, it was common around the world to see absurdly high marginal tax rates that were obviously destructive of economic wealth-creation, so much so that more revenue could be generated by lowering them. That's much, much less common today.

In effect, the supply siders won. Today's much more prosperous world owes them thanks.

But, like most movements, they refused to declare victory and disband, so they are still around even though we are now clearly into the left half of the Laffer Curve with most taxes. "

Good point, particularly with respect to personal income taxes, though it could be argued that the United States is behind the curve on corporate income taxes -- especially when you consider that putative high-tax countries such as Sweden have lower corporate income taxes than us.


Comments closed April 17, 2007.

Copyright © 2007 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.