Amazing stuff. Who has the Baron Davis sneaker endorsement deal?
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Warriors Win!
30 Apr 2007 01:20 am
Comments (74)
It will almost make the horrible, collapsed freeway, traffic tomorrow all worth it. It is not over but damn it feels good to win both at home. At least Baron is getting some much deserved National love. And damn it was nice to see Sir Charles struggling with being so so wrong.
So when was the last time the two NBA finals teams from the previous season both lost in the first round?
According to Ernie Johnson, 1957.
So Matt recently quoted an expert analysis determining that Dallas was about 800 times as likely to win the title as the Warriors. Might be time to revise that estimate a bit.
Hmmmm . . . I seem to remember Petey berating a commenter that thought that GS just might beat Dallas . . . while at the same time proclaiming that it was, more or less, Denver's series to lose against San Antonio.
Petey, what do you have to say now about your NBA prognostication skills? Petey? . . . Petey?
For Edwards sake I hope Petey's a little more polished when it comes to political prognostication.
I'm actually surprised Dallas put up as much of a fight as they did tonight.
The Warriors are just a matchup nightmare for them, especially with Nelson knowing the Mavs' traits inside out.
I was at the Oakland game a couple of months ago when the W's blitzed the Mavs, and my primary memory was Avery Johnson visibly flailing as he shuttled players in and out, trying in vain to find five guys on his roster who could match up. Looks like he still can't.
In 1990, the Lakers had a 63-win team that was heavily favored to come out of the West and claim the title.
In the second round, they suddenly found themselves behind 3-1 to a devil-may-care Phoenix team. I felt they still had a reasonable shot, being a solid team of playoff veterans. "Are you nuts," my friend said to me, "the Lakers are done in 5, even with the game at home." He was right.
This looks like the exact same scenario to me. It's clear beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dallas is not a championship team. They actually look scared out there, and they apparently have no ability to put teams away down the stretch like a championship club needs to. Stick a fork in them.
"Petey, what do you have to say now about your NBA prognostication skills? Petey? . . . Petey?"
I could be incorrect, but if memory serves, it takes 4 wins to take a playoff series, not 3.
"For Edwards sake I hope Petey's a little more polished when it comes to political prognostication."
I do only slightly better than 50/50 on my NBA bets, but I make a killing on my InTrade political bets.
And, of course, I'm on record as saying that I think Hillary is most likely to win the nomination. Edwards is the no-brainer bet at the moment only when considering the odds.
Matthew,
Dude, how complicated is it to not include playoff game results in your blog title posts for those of us with RSS readers and DVR's? Seriously?
You've just been removed from my RSS feeds until the end of the playoffs. Hence, I now can't read your political posts until I make my way through my Tivo-ed games.
And I don't think having a commentator's name repeated both before and after a comment is nearly enough.
I think a commentator's name should appear at least six times with every comment.
If I recall correctly, Petey has Denver at 5 to 1. Seems like a pretty smart bet to me.
"If I recall correctly, Petey has Denver at 5 to 1. Seems like a pretty smart bet to me."
My two first round wagers were Denver at 6 to 1 and New Jersey at 3 to 2.
So even if the Spurs emerge victorious, I'm still quite likely to be profitable for the first round.
(And lets not even talk about all the contacts that foolish people sold me a month or two ago on Detroit to win the title at 14 to 1...)
For Edwards sake I hope Petey's a little more polished when it comes to political prognostication
Hope all you want, but remember that hope is not a plan.
Davis is just outrageous. Isn't he supposed to have knee/back problems? Shouldn't he be at least a little slowed? Just remarkable.
"I could be incorrect, but if memory serves, it takes 4 wins to take a playoff series, not 3"
Does this mean you still think Dallas will win?
"Does this mean you still think Dallas will win?"
It means that folks celebrating a GS series victory are somewhat premature.
Isn't he supposed to have knee/back problems?
I have no idea whether he is still supposed to have knee/back problems. But I do know that he is supposed to shoot a terrible percentage from the field due to a propensity to jack up all kinds of awful shots. I'd like to know what the heck happened to THAT.
"Isn't he supposed to have knee/back problems?"
Davis has been quoted already during the series as saying he doesn't know if his knee is going to last through the playoffs.
It could be Jason Kidd style gamesmanship, but considering his history, and considering that he had knee surgery two months ago, I'd take him at his word.
The Tradesports market still has Dallas' value at around 40 cents on the dollar. That's ridiculously high.
"The Tradesports market still has Dallas' value at around 40 cents on the dollar. That's ridiculously high."
Bet against it then. If you can help drive the price down to around 33 or so, I'd love to get some serious action on the other side.
I'd put fair value on the series at somewhere around 50/50.
50/50? Ha! Have you been watching these games?
You think Dallas is 50/50 to win three straight games, but you won't bet it at 40? No successful bettor can afford to pass up that big of an edge.
"You think Dallas is 50/50 to win three straight games, but you won't bet it at 40? No successful bettor can afford to pass up that big of an edge."
If I think fair value is 50, then I wouldn't bet it at 40. But I'd get interested at 33.
I didn't bet the NJ series at 40 because I thought it was a pick 'em series. I bet it at 40 because I thought NJ was pretty likely to win the series.
I only put money where I think actual value diverges drastically from fair value. I only bet two of the eight first round series before the games started, for example.
The idea is to make money, not get more action.
what i love about sports -- these games are going to make me a warriors fan for life, because this is one of the better series i've seen (awesome crowd, too). and, while perhaps heretical, i find the warriors far more entertaining to watch than the suns. the warriors demonstrate more passion, play some great D, take it strong to the hoop in a different way from the suns, etc.
this series and the heats defeat may also force us to revise our assessment of the mavs (last year and this year). they barely snuck by a hobbled san antonio, beat the suns w/o amare and with raja hurt, then lost to one of the weakest champs of recent years. so maybe they really aren't all that. but they've got the opportunity now to prove they're big time. next few games should be entertaining.
I know I am the only person who cares about this, but still... my other FF tab has the espn.com page for the Utah / Houston. Five of five 'experts' pick the Rockets. But I note that the series is tied.
"i find the warriors far more entertaining to watch than the suns."
Ditto. Unlike the Suns, they've got a serious Cinderella story going on. And they've got absolutely great personalities. I watched a few of their games down the stretch of the regular season because I thought they were so fun.
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Speaking of betting, here's my 'shoulda seen the size of that fish' story from this year.
I bet a few teams to beat or not beat their regular season win number over/under. I thought the Knicks and 'zards were absolutely no-brainers on the over, although they both finished so badly that they just barely hit the over. My biggest bet was on on the over on Indianapolis, which seemed to be trading way low due to the fact that the home town fans hated their team, and thus weren't doing the normal home town buying.
When the Jackson-Harrington deal went down, I immediately sold my position in Indy at right around break even. I turned around and used the money to buy the over on GS, since I thought Jackson and Harrington were an enormous upgrade, and since I knew J-Rich was coming back.
Then Baron Davis went down with his knee injury. I knew they were only talking about him being out a few weeks, but I didn't imagine he'd be back at full strength very quickly. So I sold the position at a big loss.
Of course, GS ended up beating the over/under number quite handily. I blame Larry Bird and Donnie Walsh for my financial loss, and am quite seriously considering a lawsuit.
Five of five 'experts' pick the Rockets.
Yeah, I was thinking about that. Everybody thought that the second round matchup of Mavs-Rockets would be an incredible series. Turns out it might be Warriors-Jazz instead. Yikes.
If that's the case, we know one thing: we can rename the SA-PHX series "NBA Finals".
If that's the case, we know one thing: we can rename the SA-PHX series "NBA Finals".
Dunno. If the Mavs have paper feet, what does that say about the teams that fell behind them in the standings. The winner might come out of the East. Again.
Al, al, al: c'mon man, don't tell me that you've already succumbed to the notion that because the western conference is the better conference, detroit can't possibly win it all.
i came into the playoffs with the expectation that there were 4 championship calibre teams: the pistons, the suns, the mavs, the spurs. i have no idea why anyone would write off the pistons, who are doing all the key things - move the ball, block out, limit turnovers, offensive rebound, play lockdown team defense when needed, execute your offense in the 4th quarter - that championship teams do.
i'm not picking 'em to win, mind you: i have no idea yet which of the 4 will emerge (although, of course, dallas is obviously in trouble). i'm just saying that writing detroit off now would be like a barcelona fan having written off real madrid 3 months ago (you didn't do that, didja?).
yes yes, the warriors story is amazing. Davis is amazing. Nellie is finally getting his due. And it could possibly be the best thing to happen to the NBA since the Jordan era.
But there are other amazing stories that are being overshadowed. Like the friggin' Chicago Bulls. Where you at now Petey?
"Like the friggin' Chicago Bulls. Where you at now Petey?"
What have they done? They beat an injured team that they are a matchup nightmare for even when that team is healthy.
I have trouble seeing them actually beating Detroit.
"I don't think Chicago has a serious shot at beating Detroit/Miami in the conference finals. They've got a better shot at losing to Toronto than they do of beating one of the big boys."
They beat one of the "big boys." and they beat them real good
The reason I discount the East is that I'm not seeing it from the Pistons. They don't have the lockdown defensive style they had when they were serious contenders. I love their 4th quarter offensive execution, but I'd rather have a defensive team.
Then again, my picks for the Finals were Phoenix and NJ, so I'm not exactly consistent on this point. Nevertheless, I think Chicago will win this series against DET.
Mark:
let's go Warriors. Anything that makes the
( Mark )
Suns' path to the title easier is good news.
Al, it's true Detroit's defense isn't quite as consistently stifling as it was their championship year, but that's why i threw in the "when needed" proviso: it's still plenty tough.
at least, in my estimation!
Aha. I just figured what metric I am basing my PHX-NJ Finals prediction on: assist ratio. Top two in the league. It's the clearly the metric most associate with winning, right?
Nevertheless, I think Chicago will win this series against DET.
Drunk.
Al, as Petey once noted, the stat most associated with winning is that the team that outscores the other team wins 100% of the time!
Ready or not, Baron Davis taking over...
Objectively, this series is exposing Dallas's one true weakness, and that's dealing with physical athletes on both ends of the court. A lot has been made of GSW's offense, which has been primarily dribble around and let B-Diddy muscle to the hole or have Richardson or Jackson jack one up which either goes in our Pietrus and Bierdrins tip dunk it, but the thing that struck me last night was how ugly Dallas's offense has become. Josh Howard is a nice player, but if your O is him stutter stepping and pulling up from 20, you might be in trouble.
Subjectively, these games are about as much fun as any I've seen for the simple reason that the Oaktown crowd is ridiculous.
Also, and belatedly, Baron Davis's Beard...
Nevertheless, I think Chicago will win this series against DET.
Drunk.
Why? This baffles me. The Bulls killed the Pistons this year. Based on what evidence?
"...this series and the heats defeat may also force us to revise our assessment of the mavs"
Whatever. The 67 wins will still be in the top ten for decades. The equivalent of what, 110+ wins in baseball, or 13+ wins in football? This is not a terrible or lucky team.
"Objectively, this series is exposing Dallas's one true weakness, and that's dealing with physical athletes on both ends of the court"
I can't deny that I am wondering about character.
Of course, in this series GS has nothing to lose, and Dallas is scared witless, since they were expected to be Champs. And I can't blow off the many comebacks and tough playoff series I have watched them play. I have seen Dirk grab games by the throat, not just last year, but for many years. So color me confused.
The horror.
"Also, and belatedly, Baron Davis's Beard..."
In Soviet Russia, beard grows you.
Why? This baffles me. The Bulls killed the Pistons this year. Based on what evidence?
2-1, post-Webber. The Pistons are basically the antithesis of the Bulls--their strength is the depth of their post game. I think height matters more than youth. But no part of me would have predicted most of this post-season, so....
bob, let me get this straight: you're discussing "character" as an issue for the mavs? i thought you (quite rightly) disdained analysis that relied upon "will to win" and similar pseudo-psychological mumbo-jumbo?
i will say this: if the mavs go down in the first round to the 8th seed, their 67 wins will be remembered about as long as the (what was it? 113?) huge wins that the seattle mariners had a few years ago before doing nothing in the postseason, which is to say, the fans will remember the season favorably but no one else will.
The Pistons are basically the antithesis of the Bulls--their strength is the depth of their post game.
Is this really true?
As far as I can tell, their biggest offensive strength lies on the perimeter in Billups and Hamilton. Sheed and Webber are certainly better low post scorers than the Bulls have, but Sheed and Webber tend to take a lot of jumpers.
I don't see low-post scoring being a huge advantage. It's an advantage certainly, but it's not like they have Duncan down there.
Petey said that Dallas would "obviously" win the series. When I said that this was not obvious and that GS had a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset, Petey basically called me stupid and said he didn't need to explain why Dallas would win because it was so obvious. Petey has yet to offer any explanation why he thinks a Dallas victory is so obvious.
"Petey said that Dallas would "obviously" win the series. When I said that this was not obvious and that GS had a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset, Petey basically called me stupid and said he didn't need to explain why Dallas would win because it was so obvious."
All completely true.
And if GS actually wins the series, as opposed to just being the first team to 3, then you'll have a point.
But that's not where we are.
The Reebok site has Davis wearing a "Pump Unanimous" shoe.
To quote some old dead white guy, "there you you go again, Petey." (He really called Jimmy Carter "Petey," the cameras just didn't catch it.)
OK, I understand that you still think Dallas has a 50-50 chance. I think that's nuts, but whatever. But now you seem to be saying it's still "obvious" that Dallas will win the series. Don't you think that requires some sort of explanation?
i've said it time and time again, but I stand by the fact that Dirk is a dripping wet ___.
can I use bad words on this new fancy site? the playoffs won't be nearly as fun without the ability to curse my enemies.
"Don't you think that requires some sort of explanation?"
No. My original position is still operative.
If GS were wins the series, then my press secretary will issue a statement. But we're not at that point yet.
I think the sun will come up tomorrow. If it's 4am and you're telling me it's still dark outside so I must be wrong, that doesn't add much to the discussion.
FWIW, I think Petey is right that Dallas at .33 would be a good bet. How loose will GSW still be if Game 6 at home is 'must win'?
That said, I'd give 3:2 if you wanted to take Dallas right now...
Don't you think that requires some sort of explanation?
Mistakes were made...
"Mistakes were made..."
Not yet, they haven't been.
Y'all sure like counting your chickens early. FWIW, I thought Dallas looked good in Game 4.
I think the sun will come up tomorrow. If it's 4am and you're telling me it's still dark outside so I must be wrong, that doesn't add much to the discussion.
That's obviously a terrible analogy.
Y'all sure like counting your chickens early.
Ain't nobody counting nothing yet. We all saw the Phoenix-Lakers series last year (right, SCMT?).
"That's obviously a terrible analogy."
Stay the course. No cut and run. We must fight the Warriors in Oakland so we don't have to fight them here.
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You know what I'd pay to see?
Anyone remember the All-Star game a few years back when Shaq won MVP and celebrated by doing the Cyrus "Can you dig it?" speech from The Warriors at center court?
If GS wins the series, (which they obviously won't), I'd pay to see Baron and S-Jax do the Cyrus speech.
We all saw the Phoenix-Lakers series last year (right, SCMT?).
At the moment, I'm hoping the Lakers saw it.
I gotta say, I don't understand doubling the post if you're playing against a guy who can pass out of the double - and if you have the defenders to avoid it.
Ben Wallace's teams can always avoid having to double team Shaq, and so Ben Wallace's teams are 3 and 1 against Shaq in the playoffs.
I couldn't figure out why the hell Avery Johnson doubled Shaq in the first 4 games of the Finals last year. He has Erick Dampier just for occasions like that. You live with whatever Shaq gets, but at least you don't let everyone else play 4 on 3. I thought it lost them the series.
And George Karl has two defenders who can play Tim Duncan, but he doubled Duncan a bit in game 2, and doubled him relentlessly in game 3. I just don't get it.
If he doubles frequently in game 4, I'm going to reach through the television screen and strangle him.
And free Linas Kleiza!
While the odds look long for Dallas down 3-1, unless Nellie can get Harrington and Ellis to start playing, he is down to a 6 man rotation. That seems to even the odds a bit.
All of these minutes for Davis increase the chance that his knee will take a turn for the worse - I think he had nothing left for Game 2, and we saw the results.
And can someone explain why the Warriors settle for so many contested 3s when Dallas has not shown that they can stop anyone off the dribble?
One of the best things about the Warriors broadcast last night was the scoreboard image of Warrior mascot Thunder hitting Barkley with a creampie. I laughed about as hard as Kenny and Ernie.
The second best thing was the shots of Cuban looking like his head is about to explode.
Since this is the sports post for the day, I'd be remiss if I didn't give Al the raspberry for Saturday morning. There's only one Roonaldo, son...
"Everybody thought that the second round matchup of Mavs-Rockets would be an incredible series. Turns out it might be Warriors-Jazz instead. Yikes.
If that's the case, we know one thing: we can rename the SA-PHX series 'NBA Finals'."
Yes, by all means, everyone should think this way. It might give the Jazz a chance.
44-43 Utah at the half. The world balances on a knige edge...
Or maybe a 'knife edge'. Man, when you can't even get a cliche right, it's time to hang it up.
'zards gone fishin'
Petey, care to share your thoughts on Big Shot Bob?
(I should really wait until after the game to post this, but it's so obvious that Denver has lost)
Wow! Petey, your NBA "smarts" exposed as a fraud so quickly. It's got to hurt. Hope you sold your Denver contracts after game one. Let me know your thoughts on the remainder of the playoffs though. I think some George Costanza betting -- do the opposite of Petey's intuition -- is the way to make some serious cash.
I'd be remiss if I didn't give Al the raspberry for Saturday morning.
Grrr. If I were petty, I'd say it was because ManU was afraid to face Timmy Howard in net for Everton, even though he's no longer on loan. And since I am, I did say it! All in all, ManU deserves the title this season - Chelsea didn't play great the whole season, needed too many last minute winners and in the end, they couldn't get that last one. If we win the FA Cup and Champions League, I'll take it, though.
As for C. Ronaldo - yeah there's one one of him, but Messi's better. Perhaps you've seen the goal against Getafe? There's a player who can actually stay on his feet.
Petey is annoying, sure, but Denver at 6:1 odds was still a pretty solid bet. However, you have to wonder about a guy who still won't admit that Golden State has a "legitimate shot" to win their series.
al, messi's goal was impressive and he does have terrific ability to stay on his feet, but howzabout if messi (like robben), you know, actually plays 90% of his team's games first!
me? i'd still take rooney over messi, robben, or cristiano if i were to pick the "young star around whom to build my team," and as a united supporter, i'm just glad both rooney and cristiano are both on the squad.
but i'm still nervous as hell about ac milan.
Have we found Petey's secret identity?
"[Dave] Berri says he still expects Dallas to win three straight to take the series, but he confesses to less faith than before."
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-23-137/Stat-Geek-Smackdown--Checking-In.html
And keeping with the "stuff I just read on TrueHoop" theme -- Jason Kidd made 2nd-team all-defense. Wow. Battier and Marion were both left off the 1st and 2nd teams.
So yes, NBA coaches really are as dumb as I've always thought they were.
but he confesses to less faith than before
Well, then it's not Petey. At least, I haven't seen Petey confess to having any less faith in the Mavs now than he had before Game 1.
Jason Kidd made 2nd-team all-defense
Deservedly so. He can't stay with the quickest of the tiny PGs any more, but he does so many other things out there incredibly well. Perhaps you may have noticed that Chris Bosh has SUCKED so far this series? That's Jason Collins (who inexplicably didn't get a single vote), but it is also Kidd, who is the primary help defender.
i've always thought that the all-defense team is an odd thing for coaches to be voting for, in that if i'm a coach, i know who can and can't play defense on my team, but i don't see any other team often enough to really know who does and does not play defense 82 games a year.
to put it another way, i have more confidence in al's assessment of jason kidd on defense, since he probably watches most of the nets games, than i do in coach hill or coach musselman's assessment of kidd on defense....
Comments closed May 14, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
It's not over yet -- not by a long shot -- but holy smokes, the Warriors could actually win this thing.
GO WARRIORS!
Posted by Guy | April 30, 2007 1:30 AM