What Do Iraqis Think?

George Packer in an interesting reader dialogue about his article on Iraqi collaborators with the US and how the US government is screwing them over, writes:

You have expressed Iraqi opinions in your own words. The ones I talk to—and, for various reasons, it’s an extremely limited pool—want America to leave. They also want to live normal lives, and they don’t see that happening with an American departure. Everyone I met on my last trip feared a wider catastrophe without American troops. They aren’t particularly concerned with the terms of the debate in Washington—time lines, benchmarks, departure dates, troop numbers. They would like security and order, however possible. They have little faith that the U.S. can achieve it, but even less that their own government and security forces can.

I was pondering this on the arc trainer while wondering if society really needs ESPN News segments specifically about fantasy baseball (duller than the real thing!) and the thing is that the set of Iraqis Packer talks to is likely to be not just "an extremely limited pool" but a wildly unrepresentative one. I'm guessing that Iraqis inclined to talk to American reporters at this point are incredibly inclined to believe that their lives will improve in the short run if US troops are withdrawn. Iraqis who think that are probably wrong, but I could imagine people believing it (people believe lots of stuff). Indeed, the most recent comprehensive polling of Iraq that I'm aware of indicates just that.

Now I know that statistically valid surveys are no substitute for anectodal evidence but the clear and consistent evidence that Iraq's citizens want us to leave and don't share doomsday views about the consequences of an American departure plays shockingly little role in the public debate.

Comments

The most obvious bad scenario if the US withdraws would seem to be massive ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis by the Shia majority.

The fact that 83% of Sunnis want us out within 6 months demonstrates that this concern is simply misplaced. Surely if ethnic cleansing is in the offing, the Sunnis would be smart enough to realize it.

Posted by Steve | April 9, 2007 5:58 PM

Possibly, Packer thinks that the opinions of Iraqis who want us to leave "because then my co-religionists and I can wipe out the deviant Shiites/Sunnis at our leisure" should not weigh heavily in our evaluation?

As for Steve on the 83% of Sunnis, perhaps they think that if the U.S. is out, their Sunni friends across the border will protect them.

Posted by Anderson | April 9, 2007 6:01 PM

Sunni friends where? In Saudi Arabia? I'm not sure you're being serious. 83% is a big number.

Posted by Steve | April 9, 2007 6:14 PM

Baseball is great, you un-American pinko.

Posted by JP | April 9, 2007 6:27 PM

Yeah, I agree that it's sort of perplexing that the same people who supposedly believe in freedom and democracy are themselves so authoritarian.

Posted by MJ | April 9, 2007 6:30 PM

Wanting the US to leave is different from wanting the US to leave within a defined timetable of six months or two years.

One is immediate, the other carries with it the implicit wish that in setting up the timetable, things would improve.

I am of the opinion that Iraqis are wildly ambivalent about the US presence. In all probability the vast majority don't harbor the best of feelings for the american presence, but I don't think they ll be wildly happy to see americans depart tomorrow either.

Posted by Nick Kaufman | April 9, 2007 6:31 PM

Wanting the US to leave is different from wanting the US to leave within a defined timetable of six months or two years.

There's really no practical difference between immediate withdrawal and a six-month timetable, though. And certainly a six-month timetable is at the leftward edge of the Beltway political spectrum.

Posted by Steve | April 9, 2007 6:38 PM

tomorrow tomorrow i love ya tomorrow
your always a day away

And the Iraqi and American people who said they favor U.S. troops leaving Iraq in 6 months to a year over a year ago?

Posted by alphie | April 9, 2007 6:47 PM

No there isn't a practical difference between tomorrow and 6 months.

I think -but obviously I cannot be sure- that there is a difference in the attitude and the implicit assumptions poll respondents hold.

Posted by Nick Kaufman | April 9, 2007 6:50 PM

I think this is the most revealing question in the poll:

The 35% of respondents who took the position in favor of the near-term exit of US forces from Iraq (six months) were asked: “Which of the following reasons for withdrawing US-led forces is the most important to you?” and given four options. The most commonly selected answer is: “It is offensive to me to have foreign forces in my country.” This was selected by 20% (of the total sample) overall, 52% of Sunnis, 11% of Shia and 7% of Kurds. The second most common answer is: “The presence of US forces attracts more violent attacks and makes things worse,” which was selected by 11% overall, 26% of Sunnis, 6% of Shia and 4% of Kurds. Far fewer chose the other two options: “It is no longer necessary to have US-led forces in Iraq: Iraq can take care of itself” (2%), and “I do not like the way US forces have treated Iraqi civilians” (2%).

So of the Iraqis who choose the 6-month position - and this subgroup is overwhelmingly Sunni, for what it's worth - relatively few of them are making a judgment that things would be safer or "better off" without the US presence. It's that they simply don't want a foreign army on their soil, period, the end.

Regardless of how things would actually play out following a US withdrawal, it seems to me that any argument which says "we ought to stay in Iraq because, if we leave, there will be massive ethnic cleansing of Sunnis" is belied by the overwhelming 83% of Sunnis who want us out within 6 months. They obviously don't think they need our protection.

Posted by Steve | April 9, 2007 6:57 PM

Can't defend Packer's reasoning in the Q & A, but I gotta give some props to that piece on our Iraqi employees. It's just devastating, an expertly reported and passionately written indictment of an administration who pays lip service to democracy while casually abandoning the Iraqis who believed in the democracy project most and sacrificed nearly everything to be a part of the rebuilding.

Packer's liberal hawk agitation can be irritating, but no matter where you stand on the war (and I was against it from its inception), it's hard to dispute that we should be doing much more for our Iraqi translators and local contacts, including granting than refugee status. Of course, that's tantamount to admitting failure which means we're end up leaving these folks to trapeze from Arab country to Arab country as nomads.

Posted by Ryan | April 9, 2007 7:00 PM

I like Baseball...

Posted by DRR | April 9, 2007 7:07 PM

The views of Iraqi citizens should most certainly play a greater role in the public debate. At the least, it would require trying to explain Iraqi public opinion, instead of just assuming things or making explanatory leaps as though they were obvious, the way Steve does when he says that

The fact that 83% of Sunnis want us out within 6 months demonstrates that this concern [massive ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis by the Shia majority] is simply misplaced.

It would be worth considering other aspects of public opinion to see how there might be other explanations. For instance, how many Sunnis accept the fact - truly, simply accept as true - that they constitute a mere 20% of the population? How do Sunnis assess their relative strength as compared with those of the Shiites in Iraq? How many Sunnis believe that they can defeat Shiites in a civil war, and that it is only American support for the Shiite-dominated government that is keeping them down? And so on.

Posted by Jeff | April 9, 2007 9:04 PM

If the US said something like the following what would be the reaction?

- We'll give you $50 billion now if you want us to leave in less than 6 months.

- We'll give you $5 billion if you want us to stay for more than 6 months.

- You will pay us $50 billion if you want us to stay for more than 12 months.

It should be time for the purple fingers again. Let the Iraqis decide by national ballot within 90 days how long we should remain in THEIR country - with or without the money incentives I hypothetically mentioned above.

Why should OUR US election outcomes depend on our guesses as to what is best for the Iraqi people?

My guess is that the purple fingers would vote for the less than 6 months option, overwhelmingly across sectarian boundaries.

Last question: If the Iraqi's did the purple finger thing and asked us to leave in 6 or 12 months, and Bush said that was not acceptable for the US to leave, what should the Congress do about George W. Bush and US funding for the Iraqi war?

Posted by JimPortlandOR | April 9, 2007 9:30 PM

If we DON'T grant asylum to large numbers of Iraqi refugees, then the single most likely nationality for anti-American terrorists, 5 years from now, will be Iraqi. Sort of the way Palestinian refugees tend to target the country that turned them into refugees, y'know?

Posted by mattsteinglass | April 9, 2007 9:46 PM

"I'm guessing that Iraqis inclined to talk to American reporters at this point are incredibly inclined to believe that their lives will improve in the short run if US troops are withdrawn. "
Missing a not, or is it me?

Perhaps too eager to bash the great sport of baseball?

Posted by berger | April 9, 2007 10:08 PM

Steve: that's a terrific poll question to pick out. You're right -- it sheds a lot of light on the reasoning behind various Iraqi responses. But this, then, is misplaced:

They obviously don't think they need our protection.

Didn't you just finish pointing out that their desire for the US to leave had nothing to do with their assessments of the likely security consequences?

Posted by mattsteinglass | April 9, 2007 10:16 PM

Didn't you just finish pointing out that their desire for the US to leave had nothing to do with their assessments of the likely security consequences?

My assumption is that, if the Sunnis believed their lives and homes were in grave danger in the event of a US withdrawal, that belief would trump their desire to get the foreign army out of town. Not everyone would see it that way, of course, but the Sunnis would have to be the stupidest people in the world if 83% of them want the US to leave immediately even though they're most likely going to get ethnically cleansed as a result.

If we DON'T grant asylum to large numbers of Iraqi refugees, then the single most likely nationality for anti-American terrorists, 5 years from now, will be Iraqi.

At least a few Iraqi leaders have made the case that it's better for refugees to settle elsewhere in the Middle East, rather than the US, because if the cream of their society moves to the US the resulting brain drain will surely be permanent.

Posted by Steve | April 9, 2007 11:35 PM

It might not be so much that the Sunnis are stupid, but that they're misinformed. Wasn't there a poll showing that a majority of Sunnis believe that they, not Shiites, are in the majority in Iraq?

Posted by AlanC9 | April 10, 2007 2:46 AM

It's entirely possible that the Sunnis are misinformed, but I'm not arrogant enough to presume that I, learning about the war from blogs, have a better notion of what will happen to the Sunnis after a US withdrawal than the Sunnis themselves do. Again, 83% is a huge, huge number. Is it really that plausible that 83% of Sunnis don't know or don't care that they will be killed or driven from their homes?

Posted by Steve | April 10, 2007 9:27 AM

I couldn't help noticing that this poll was taken in January 2006. That's a bit dated.

This poll of Iraqis was conducted in late February and early March of 2007.

On the question of how long American troops should stay, it's considerably more ambiguous:

27. How long do you think U.S. and other coalition forces should remain in Iraq? They should…
3/5/07 All Sunni Shiite Kurdish 11/22/05
Leave now 35 55 28 11 26
Remain until security is restored 38 41 39 28 31
Remain until the Iraqi government
is stronger* 14 3 18 28 19
Remain until the Iraqi security forces
can operate independently 11 1 13 24 16
Remain longer but leave eventually 2 * 2 7 3
Never leave 1 0 * 2 1
No opinion * 0 * * 4
*In 2005, “Remain until the Iraqi government elected in December is in place”

I know - that's hard to read. See the original.

The absence of a 'leave over 18 months' (or 2 years, or whatever) question skews things, IMHO.

Posted by RT | April 10, 2007 9:44 AM

55% of Sunnis say "Leave now"
41% of Sunnis say "Remain until security is restored"

However, 94% of Sunnis say US presence is making security situation worse (question 28 from the March '07 poll).

Not clear how the restoration of security is supposed to happen, in the minds of that 41%....

[Another interesting response: to the question, "How often do you attend mosque?" - 49% said "Never"; granted, 14% said more than once a week or daily.]

Posted by Mischa | April 10, 2007 3:34 PM

Oh, and in the World Public Opinion poll Matthew cites, note Q12: If the US withdraws, do you think ------ will increase/decrease?

Only 18% (9 + 9) of Sunnis thought the amount of inter-ethnic violence would increase with a US withdrawl. 87% (40 + 47) thought factions in Parliament would be more willing to compromise. So, in Jan. '06, at least, 83% of Sunnis wanted us out within 6 months, AND largely were not expecting ethnic cleansing to result. No such question in the Mar. '07 poll....

Posted by Mischa | April 10, 2007 3:46 PM

The political landscape in Iraq is one huge clusterfuck. If everyone was acting in own their rational interests, the Sunni would be begging the US to stay while the radical Shia would be trying to bomb the US out of the country. The Sunni have the most to loose when the US leaves: they'll be politically marginalized and butchered in large numbers by Shia nutjobs. Shia extremists have the most to gain by a US withdrawal in that they'll have the opportunity to take revenge against the Sunni. In this light, moderate Shia factions and most of the Sunni should be able to find common cause with the US to create a workable political compromise on how to run Iraq south of Kurdistan.

Instead, have a situation where the Sunni are trying to bomb the US out of Iraq while virtually all Shia factions are not hostile to US forces. This makes utterly no sense if the rational actor model is considered a valid theory of conflict.

It's enough to make any IR policy wonk throw their hands up in frustration.

Posted by turkey turkey turkey | April 11, 2007 12:23 AM

gaotm oifza gokjhbu vtcrnsamh hovxu tgnz hwekvxcj

Posted by mbxnokqvu bfvrqp | June 11, 2007 5:22 PM