About Tonight

I think the Rockets can win it at home tonight, and think the Jazz are really going to regret the way that season-end slide cost them home court advantage since this has wound up being a really tight series. I think Yao's low post skills and T-Mac's size and ability to elevate mean Houston won't have Dallas-esque problems with the Warriors, but of course I was quite sure Dallas would beat Golden State so I think everyone's opinions about their next matchup are essentially worthless.

UPDATE: Yikes -- gotta check that schedule. I just assumed they wouldn't schedule a round two game before the completion of round one, but Chicago-Detroit kicks off tonight. My heart says Bulls; if they can dismantle one Eastern Conference dinosaur, then why not two?

Comments

Of course, the really interesting game tonight is the game 1, not the game 7...

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 12:23 PM

I'm not sure I see T-Mac dominating Jackson on the offensive end.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 5, 2007 12:38 PM

If Houston wins tonight, (not a given at all, IMHO), the Rockets/Warriors series will be a contest in who goes down with an injury first: T-Mac or B-Diddy.

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 12:43 PM

Tonight's Houston-Utah game is tough. I'd like to pick the Jazz, for the reason that Yao isn't playing that great. But the Jazz are just a bad road team, so I think that Houston has the edge.

The three series we know the matchups for are tough to pick, IMO. I will stick with my prediction of PHX to get to the finals - they have home court against SA. Chicago - Detroit is a pickem, but I'm going to go with Chicago. I little younger, a little deeper. Despite the last game of the regular season, CHicago been playing well for a while now, and I see no reason they can't keep it up. And sadly, even though I picked NJ to get out of the East, Cleveland's got to be favored. They are not playing well right now (although NJ is playing all that great either) but Cleveland's bigs are going to be too much trouble for NJ. I think Cleveland will kill NJ on the offensive boards, and so even if LBJ doesn't play like a monster (and I don't think he will), NJ will not be able to compete with Z, Gooden, and Verejao.

Posted by Al | May 5, 2007 1:43 PM

OK, my craaaa-aaazy predictions:

Suns over Spurs
Warriors over Houston, or Jazz over Warriors
Chicago over Detroit
Cleveland over NJ

Those should all be very entertaining serieseseses. Like Petey, I have little confidence in any of these predictions. But, let's go all the way with it:

Phoenix over Cleveland in 4 games to win it all.

Posted by too many steves | May 5, 2007 1:43 PM

Wow. Did Al and I just make the exact same picks, apart from me being craaaazy for Golden State?

Posted by too many steves | May 5, 2007 1:44 PM

And yes, my "Cleveland in the finals" pick is a little nuts, and it depends on LeBron playing out of his head. I think Chicago and Detroit are about as likely to make it as Cleveland, but since they play each other next and will presumably wear each other out, I'll take the Cavs.

Posted by too many steves | May 5, 2007 1:57 PM

Lots of geniuses in here picking Chicago. We'll see.

Obviously the Bulls are younger than the somewhat aging Pistons, but to equate Detroit with Miami as "dinosaurs" is a bit much.

Posted by Haggai | May 5, 2007 2:20 PM

"Lots of geniuses in here picking Chicago. We'll see."

I'm picking Detroit, and it's actually the one pick of the four I feel reasonably confident about.

But if Chicago were to win, trust that I'll be rubbing your face in it for kicking the Powder Blues when they were down, Haggai.

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 2:29 PM

Why does anyone care about the infinitely weaker Eastern Conference? And while I'm at it, has anyone else noticed that the AL is much stronger than the NL, and that the AFC is much stronger than the NFC? I can't remember another time when the imbalances between the leagues in the biggest professional sports were so obvious. (I don't know anything about the NHL, so don't yell at me for omitting them.)

Posted by beckya57 | May 5, 2007 2:31 PM

"Why does anyone care about the infinitely weaker Eastern Conference?"

Because the infinitely weaker Eastern conference has won two out of the last three Finals.

Just because the Hornets are better than the Hawks doesn't mean Detroit can't win the title.

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 2:35 PM

Henry Abbot is picking 3 out of 3 road teams to win in the second round. Sucker.

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 2:40 PM

But if Chicago were to win, trust that I'll be rubbing your face in it for kicking the Powder Blues when they were down, Haggai.

Rub away, if it happens. And of course I wasn't kicking the Powder Blues, whom I don't really care about at all...I was kicking you while you were down.

Why does anyone care about the infinitely weaker Eastern Conference?

Why would anyone care about the infinitely weaker Warriors playing the infinitely stronger Mavericks? Comparing their overall regular season records sure told the story in that one.

Anyway, the balance between the conferences was much more off-kilter in 2002 and '03, when none of the Eastern conference teams would have had much hope of getting out of the second round in the West, much less winning it all. It looks a lot more even this year, although I think SA-PHX has to be considered the matchup of the two most likely title-winning teams left in the playoffs.

I would also note that the AL/NL disparity manifested itself last year in an 83-win NL team winning the World Series.

Posted by Haggai | May 5, 2007 2:50 PM

And regarding balance in the NFL, one doesn't have to harken back very far to a time when the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls. Yes, 13 in a row.

Posted by Haggai | May 5, 2007 2:52 PM

beckya57 needs a little more historic perspective!

meanwhile, haggai and i are on the same page: while i don't rule out a chicago win (that's why they play 'em on the court), detroit in the first round did exactly what championship teams do: they defended well, they moved the ball, they had a modest level of turnovers, they executed the offense in the 4th quarter.

3 of my 4 potential championship teams - detroit, san antonio, and phoenix - are still playing, and i still expect 2 of them to be playing in the finals.

as for matthew's comparing miami - with an aging shaq and an injured wade - to detroit, well it won't go down in the record books as one of the sharpest things matthew has ever typed.

Posted by howard | May 5, 2007 3:22 PM

The most interesting matchup, of course, is Deng/Prince.

Everyone is focussing on whether or not Prince will be able to shut down Deng. If I were Flip Saunders, I'd go repeatedly to Prince on offense to try to flip the matchup around.

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 3:27 PM

No one here is going to watch De La Hoya v. Mayweather? This could be your last chance to pay for the privilege of watching either of them.

My guesses: Mayweather wins a unanimous decision; De La Hoya retires from boxing and becomes a full-time promoter; Mayweather works with De La Hoya to try to land one more mega-fight for Mayweather -- perhaps with the old Bernard Hopkins or even an over-the-hill Roy Jones Jr., if he agrees to come down in weight some and Mayweather puts some rocks in his pockets.

Posted by Fred | May 5, 2007 3:27 PM

My guesses:

Detroit over Chicago, Cleveland over New Jersey, Phoenix over San Antonio, and either GS over Houston or Utah over GS.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 5, 2007 3:28 PM

Chiggy over Detroit, New Jersey over Cleveland, Phoenix over San Antonio, Houston over Utah and then over Golden State, De la Joya over Mayweather, Obama/Richardson over Thompson/Brownback.

Posted by Freddie | May 5, 2007 4:35 PM

My picks:

Utah tonight over Houston, though that depends on Kirilenko being as healthy tonight as he was in Game 6 (not a certainty with back problems).

Round 2:
Chicago over Detroit, though this is a very close series;
New Jersey over Cleveland, though this is a chance for Lebron to take the "next step";
Utah/Houston winner over Golden State;
San Antonio (unfortunately) over Phoenix, this is a really bad matchup for the Suns

Posted by Mike | May 5, 2007 5:25 PM

Freddie,

What makes you think De La Hoya's going to beat Mayweather?

Posted by Fred | May 5, 2007 6:35 PM

To be clear "my heart says Bulls" is intended to set up an implicit contrast with what my head's telling me.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | May 5, 2007 7:22 PM

"To be clear "my heart says Bulls" is intended to set up an implicit contrast with what my head's telling me."

My kidney thinks Utah will win the championship.

My femur thinks game 2 of the Cavs/Nets series will hit the over.

Posted by Petey | May 5, 2007 7:46 PM

Three nights ago my tail told me that Phoenix would beat San Antonio.

Posted by Neil the Ethical Werewolf | May 5, 2007 8:07 PM

Wow, I could hardly have been more wrong. Bad news for Obama/Richardson.

Posted by Freddie | May 6, 2007 1:02 AM