Better Security Through Ethnic Cleaning

Eric Wong and Damien Cave tell the story of a Baghdad success story where Shiite militias have consolidated control and the (Shiite) population enjoys a great deal of security and prosperity, at least by Iraqi standards. As with the troop training issue the point in these cases is that the mission can't be chasing "success" we need to decide what we're trying to succeed at. If the underlying conditions of political pluralism aren't there, then they aren't there, and the bravery of American troops isn't going to change that.

Comments

"If the underlying conditions of political pluralism aren't there, then they aren't there, and the bravery of American troops isn't going to change that."

If this rationale were applied consistently, we wouldn't have troops in the Balkans or Afghanistan either.

Posted by Fred | May 22, 2007 9:34 AM

The Sunni Arabs are leaving Iraq. Read someone yesterday that said Jordan & Syria & SA must accept them as citizens, so they aren't refugees like the Palestinians. It doesn't work that way.
A decade from now, will Jordan be shelling Iraqi refugee camps, as in Lebanon?

We have apparently underestimated the general animosity between Sunni & Shia. I would view this division as much less than 30 Years War level, even less than Northern Ireland or I/P, perhaps more like 19th America Protestant prejudice against Catholics in America. Saddam & those before him could mostly keep it under control, but it will emerge in violence under stressful conditions.

The Shia controlling Baghdad will be like German Lutherans controllng Rome. I expect there will always be SA/Wahhabist elements who find it intolerable; they will be financed for a while;and Iraq will have to deal with a level of violence and terrorism a little lower than I/P.

Or it could be somewhat worse, but not I think, any clash of armies.

Posted by bob mcmanus | May 22, 2007 9:52 AM

"If the underlying conditions of political pluralism aren't there"

What a liberating phrase! Imagine where else we could apply that: "The U.S. is giving up on a two-state solution for the Israel-Palestinian conflict because it's clear that the underlying conditions for political pluralism aren't there in Gaza".

Posted by Harry | May 22, 2007 10:11 AM

Nir Rosen wrote a lot about the Iraqi refugees.

I don't think "the Sunni Arabs are leaving Iraq" is an accurate statement. Also, I can't imagine that millions of refugees can be absorbed by small countries like Jordan and Syria. According to Rosen:

...But the numbers and the welcome became unsustainable: Jordan and Egypt have made it very difficult for Iraqis to enter, and even Syria, with a long history of welcoming refugees, has passed regulations, like restrictions on the purchase of property and on access to free health care, that are intended to ensure that Iraqi refugees are only temporary residents. Iraq’s neighbors take the position that Iraqi refugees are not in fact refugees at all, because refugee status enables refugees to make claims on the host country. Iraq’s government has itself taken roughly the same position, because it cannot afford to acquiesce in the loss of its population or acknowledge its own failure to provide security.

So, it's exactly like the Palestinians.

Posted by abb1 | May 22, 2007 12:18 PM