This year's two conference championship matchups both seem so lopsided that I forgot to even post my picks before the first game was played. Suffice it to say that I like, I think, almost everyone on the planet, expect to see the Spurs facing (and in all likelihood beating) the Pistons in the NBA Finals. It's really too bad, since we've had some great playoff series thus far, but the current round looks certain to be a dreary momentum-killer. I can't recall both series being this one sided in quite a while.
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Conference Championships
20 May 2007 11:57 pm
Comments (35)
I too think the Jazz have a decent shot at winning the series - maybe 40%.
Agree with Al.
I think home court advantage might work against the Spurs, if the Jazz do beat the odds. Going to Utah 0-2 doesn't kill the Jazz, and if they come out 2-2, I'd pick them for games 5 and 6.
The Cavs did lead the Pistons 3-2 in the conference semis last year. Both teams are better this year, but it's hard to see (other than people's at this point totally unjustified doubts about Lebron) why this is such a lopsided series.
Then again, nobody thought Miami could beat Detroit last year, or that the Eastern team could beat the Western Champ.
But I thought you were a noted contrarian?
but it's hard to see (other than people's at this point totally unjustified doubts about Lebron) why this is such a lopsided series
The parenthetical pretty much covers it. And doubts about LeBron are totally justified - he was unimpresive in the NJ series.
I'm hoping but not expecting a Spurs-Cavs final. The symmetry with Jordan beating the Pistons to face the aging Lakers dynasty would be awesome. Unfortunately, I don't see the Cavs beating the Spurs in the Finals. With as lazy and old as the Pistons can be at times (see previous series), the Cavs have a shot at them, although in all likelihood Detroit will win.
The NBA championships are still in progress?!
"I too think the Jazz have a decent shot at winning the series - maybe 40%."
I also think the Jazz have a decent shot here, but 40% is overstating it.
I'd say 25% is more like it.
Current odds on the Jazz are 14%, so you could make some real money at TradeSports, if your wallet can follow your typing fingers...
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"Then again, nobody thought Miami could beat Detroit last year, or that the Eastern team could beat the Western Champ."
Good to know that my predictions last year were imaginary.
"it's hard to see (other than people's at this point totally unjustified doubts about Lebron) why this is such a lopsided series."
You'd have to actually be following the NBA for it not to be hard to see.
Going down 2-0 would be fatal to the Jazz. Remember that the Spurs have had a better road record than home record in these play-offs, which is not an aberration for them. The same was true the last two years, and they had equal marks in 2003. It doesn't matter where they play; bottom line is nobody stands much chance of beating them four games out of five. If the Jazz lose tomorrow, they will switch to the Blues.
those who refuse to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it, and that includes those who can't seem to recall that "everybody" was sure the lakers would beat the pistons 3 years ago.
i think both series will be hard fought, but should we end up with spurs-pistons, it's a pick 'em series (and i'm coming to favor the pistons slightly but it's too early to get into that).
"those who refuse to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it, and that includes those who can't seem to recall that "everybody" was sure the lakers would beat the pistons 3 years ago."
While Petey thought the Pistons had an excellent shot against the Lakers 3 years ago, (and I can provide links to prove it), the truth is that the Lakers were a 7 to 1 favorite to win that series.
That's very close to being an "everyone was sure the lakers would beat the pistons 3 years ago" situation.
Compare and contrast to the Spurs being a 4 to 1 fav against the Jazz and the Pistons being a 3 to 1 fav against the Cavs...
"Going down 2-0 would be fatal to the Jazz."
While I am somewhat sympathetic to your logic, it's worth noting that the Jazz have already won a series this year where they were down 2-0. (I know. I know. The Spurs are a better team than the Rockets.)
If the Jazz went down 2-0 and then held home court, I wouldn't want to be the Spurs in game 5...
Petey, my point is that "everyone" (not me either, actually, although i can't provide the links, but anyone who knows where matthew's archive is can look it up) did pick the lakers to beat the pistons, and "everyone" was wrong, so perhaps "everyone" should have a little more humility.
you know by now my philosophy: there are teams who do the things that champions do. from this small group generally comes the actual champion (indeed, the only team i can recall winning the title over the last 40+ years for whom this wasn't true was the golden state warrior championship team that i regard as the greatest upset in nba history).
so if you get to a final where one team is of championship calibre and one team isn't, great, then it's easy to be "sure."
but when you have two championship calibre teams in the finals, no one should be that "sure."
PS. after all, petey, you and i were the only people around matthew's site last year who didn't concede the finals to the mavericks before they even started. same principle, plus you and i both recognized that the mavs couldn't defend wade.
I think the Cavs have probably a 40 percent chance, personally. If I were a gambling man... wait, I am. OK, if I were a gambling man with any money ...
Anyway, as unimpressive as Lebron was in the last round, there's always a chance he could go off. If that happens, the Cavs are a better team than the Pistons.
Out West, I don't think Utah is going to stop the Death Star. I'm trying to actually root against both of these teams, but if I have to pick, SA is way more evil. I say Spurs in 5.
As a Jazz fan I was pleasantly surprised by the Jazz in Game 1, but the Spurs is truly a terrible matchup for them. The Spurs are essentially a much, much stronger version of the Jazz. Very similar teams, but the Spurs are better in almost every way. We would have been much better off playing the Suns.
Duncan/Boozer is a good microcosm of this series - Boozer is one of the best power forwards in the NBA, while Duncan is one of the best power forwards in the history of the NBA.
If the Jazz are to have any chance they need Okur to get it going from beyond the arc. If he continues to shoot 27% or whatever, it's over.
APS
"If the Jazz are to have any chance they need Okur to get it going from beyond the arc."
Yup. It's not only the points he provides, it's that Okur knocking down 3 pointers would draw Duncan out of the paint, allowing other Jazz players better opportunities on penetration.
The question is whether or not the grind of defending Duncan in the box takes too much out of Okur to leave him his long range touch.
Was anyone else's blood just boiling when Barbecue Bob Horry got a 3 minute standing O when he checked into game one for the first time? He's the legitimate front runner for playoff MVP at this point, right?
I'm with you, Pooh, and I'm a Spurs fan. I was watching the game with my mom and fiance', and we were all nonplussed.
No, he's not the front-runner for MVP. Duncan reclaiming the throne of greatest active player is the real story of the playoffs thus far. (That, and Dallas crapping the bed.)
The thing for the Jazz to hang their hats on is their strength on the boards. I don't know if the numbers back this up, but I think they are the best rebounding team I have seen this season.
I also think that the Okur is key to their chances; he has made key shots at the end of games to beat the Spurs the last couple of years. The problem is that in crunch time, the Spurs will put Duncan on Boozer and let one of the smaller players chase Okur at the three point line. That keeps Duncan in the middle and it chases Okur off the three point line. The benefit to the Jazz is that Okur then has a big rebounding advantage.
But the Jazz have to fix some holes in the defense and fast if they are going to make this into a long series. Spurs put up 108 points without a huge game from Duncan, without a lot of threes, and without a ton in the open court. The Spurs points were inflated by the free throws in the last minute, but the Utah half court defense was no match for the Spurs offense.
The thing for the Jazz to hang their hats on is their strength on the boards.
No kidding. I think they had 10+ boards on the Spurs in the last game. They don't need Okur to be the third player that goes nuts, they just need someone to do so.
But the Jazz have to fix some holes in the defense and fast if they are going to make this into a long series.
Totally.
curtis, i too have been impressed by the utah rebounding, but i've also been impressed (it's one of the reasons i think the pistons would have an excellent change against the spurs) by the way that between them, mcdyess and weber are averaging about 48 minutes and north of 15 rebounds.
indeed, i took a quick look at some numbers (bearing in mind that i didn't look at total number of rebounds available or anything).
In the playoffs to date, Boozer/Okur/Kirilenko among them have played 1366 minutes and have 305 rebounds.
Prince/Rasheed/Webber/McDyess among them have played 1241 minutes and have 296 rebounds.
so i'm certainly curious in the utah-spurs series whether the jazz can convert their rebounding edge into a winning edge (probably not quite, in my estimation), but it's also full of interesting portents for how the very strong rebounding detroit front line might match up as well, and they've got billups and hamilton....
btw, 85 of the piston rebounds i just noted are offensive; 95 of the jazz are, and of course, they did get to play the height-challenged warriors. we all saw how the jazz got the key offensive rebounds time and again; last night the 3 got 10 offensive boards while the entire spur team had 8. if the the jazz keep that up....
"But the Jazz have to fix some holes in the defense and fast if they are going to make this into a long series."
Yup. Shouldn't AK be glued to Manu?
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Everything considered, I actually think Utah is sitting in perfectly decent position.
They need to find ways to get both Boozer and Okur off, but that seems perfectly doable to me.
I'd expect them to be competitive in game 2, and they've shown they can win close games. That doesn't mean they will win the game, but I'd expect them to have a legit shot to steal one, which is all you can ask for at this point.
And I'm glad Deron finished strong. I think that's healthy.
And are teams really willing to give Vince $15m/yr for 3 years?
And is Vince really asking for $20m per?
Seems like a crazy way to allocate your precious cap space to me for almost any team in the league, even though he's an above average player.
PS. after all, petey, you and i were the only people around matthew's site last year who didn't concede the finals to the mavericks before they even started. same principle, plus you and i both recognized that the mavs couldn't defend wade.
I don't think this is true. IIRC, I always thought the the Heat would win (until just before the Mavs choked), because they're the Mavs. I still can't believe Indy won the Super Bowl this year for the same reason.
The Chuckster just came out for Utah in the series...
pooh, i'm perfectly happy to concede that you gave the heat a chance too! i don't remember it, but tempus fugit and all that....
Rasheed is bizarro Tim Duncan.
since rasheed helped the pistons lose to the spurs by leaving horry one fateful end of game, you would think he would have learned his lesson, but there he was, abandoning marshall. bizarro indeed.
"since rasheed helped the pistons lose to the spurs by leaving horry one fateful end of game, you would think he would have learned his lesson, but there he was, abandoning marshall. bizarro indeed."
I meant it as a compliment, actually.
The final play did have definite echoes of his blown coverage on Horry, though.
Interestingly, in the post-game, 'Sheed said he wasn't coming over to help on LBJ, but was going in to rebound. And considering what a difficult pass LBJ had to make to Marshall, 'Sheed's choice didn't seem nearly as stupid as the blown Horry coverage.
But final play aside, Rasheed is just like Timmy, but crazy. And as said, I mean that as a compliment to Rasheed.
Rasheed is every bit as physically talented as Duncan, but can't control his emotions well enough to be a superstar. He's gotten a lot better than he used to be, though, and he won the game for Detroit tonight, on a night when everybody else other than Hamilton was badly off.
And howard, tonight's game is a nice example of what I see in single game +/- numbers.
At the end of the game, I said that Tayshaun had had a wonderful game for someone who shot 1 for 11. Then I go check the +/- and see that Tayshaun had the best +/- number on the team.
It doesn't prove anything, but it is another touchstone to compare one's observations against.
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Larry Hughes would be a helluva player if he could just shoot the basketball.
petey, i got that you meant it as a compliment; i'm a big fan of rasheed too. but i couldn't help but notice that play (didn't hear his post-game rebound justification).
meanwhile, that's an interesting data point about tayshaun prince and the +/- as i continue to examine it (he more and more reminds me - pace those upset '74-75 warrior champs - of a longer jamaal wilkes, which is also a compliment).
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Comments closed June 03, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
I must say I think the Jazz are a lot better than most folks are giving them credit for. Now, they certainly didn't prove that today (however, most teams would have been blown to hell after that second quarter, and Utah stayed--relatively--strong) but I think the matchups, in a seven game series, could eventually favor Utah. Deron Williams can wear down Parker, Boozer, if he stays out of ft, will give duncan a bad time, and the AK-Harpring-Millsap-Giricek combo is unlike anything--physically--SA has seen before. In the end, yes, I expect to see the Spurs and Pistons going at it. But I would not be too surprised to see the Jazz take this thing.
Posted by Will | May 21, 2007 12:10 AM