Trusty correspondent B.U. writes "Since my TV is down I can't check for myself, so you might want to check with others before allowing it to affect your thinking/blogging/whatever, but I'm told Channel 2 now puts Olmert's approval at 0%." Legends of the Israeli Prime Minister's unpopularity do seem to grow by the day. This article has him at three percent. Here he's at two percent. So I don't know for sure, but he's unpopular and with this new report out officially rebuking his handling of the summer 2006 Lebanon War, he seems unlikely to grow more popular.
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Everybody Hates Olmert
01 May 2007 08:57 am
Comments (21)
at the time of the lebanon war, i bet my posting buddy haggai that olmert would be out within a year. i have a few months to go, but i'm looking good.
Actually I remember you saying it would be by the end of the calendar year, howard, though maybe I've got that wrong. In any event, you were obviously right that it dramatically decreased his popularity, though perhaps not quite right in terms of which direction the dis-satisfaction came from (not that he decided to go to war, but that he prosecuted it poorly).
Remember, Israelis are not Americans. Israelis are citizens of what is at least nominally a Jewish state (even if Israel hardly ever acts in a Jewish manner). So imagine asking a bunch of Jews "do you support the Prime Minister?"
I figure 2% is a darned high figure, actually. I'd figure the breakdown would be 10% for "no", 40% for "could you define what you mean by 'support'?" and 50% for "mneh ..." ;)
That's what you call a democracy. To have people proudly trumpting "I support our leader" is a cult of personality not a republican government, if you ask me.
haggai, like magic, you appear! just in time to cheer me on for tomorrow's match with ac milan.
i'm 98% sure that i said olmert would be out within a year, but i'll leave the 2% hedge: to tell you the truth, i've been working on my concession speech, but this report restores my expectations.
as for the basis of dissatisfaction, at some point, haggai, when the criticisms of the government include, as this report does, a failure to look at alternatives to war and a failure to assess the costs of war, i'm not sure we can anymore divide things into a "he failed because he chose war" and "he failed to deliver the war competently."
for example, at this moment in time, do americans feel like the problem in iraq is bush incompetence or that it was a bad idea in the first place? it's a fine point indeed.
The Winograd Report basically came out and said going to war was a stupid idea, in portions I excerpted at American Footprints, though the site seems to be down now. I'm not sure Olmert will survive next week, as nationwide protests are beginning in earnest, with people marching to Rabin Square Thursday to demand his ouster.
Contrasting the "failed war" response here in Israel with the Bush dead-enders in the U.S. is really disheartening. Nasrallah even latched onto the report as propaganda, and I don't see anyone mounting GOP-style attacks on its authors' patriotism.
as for the basis of dissatisfaction, at some point, haggai, when the criticisms of the government include, as this report does, a failure to look at alternatives to war and a failure to assess the costs of war, i'm not sure we can anymore divide things into a "he failed because he chose war" and "he failed to deliver the war competently."
Sure, but I'm just talking about where Israeli public opinion was on the issue. The post-war rise in polling numbers for Bibi and Avigdor Lieberman pretty clearly didn't correspond to a widespread sentiment along the lines of "we shouldn't have rushed to war." Although things seem to have stabilized a bit with public opinion on that front, as a potential Kadima bloc under Tzipi Livni (who was less hawkish on Lebanon than Olmert, as is generally understood) generally polls OK against Likud under Bibi.
The one thing everyone agrees on is that they don't want Olmert in charge. Even if he survives the post-report pressure that Brian mentions, the Labor primary near the end of the month will probably see a new leader elected to that party to replace Amir Peretz (either Barak or Ami Ayalon), who would probably then withdraw Labor from the coalition. The only way to avoid early elections in that scenario would be for Kadima to form a new coalition, which seems highly unlikely to happen under Olmert. Maybe Labor under Barak or Ayalon would agree to the defense ministry under Livni as PM, if there's an internal Kadima coup, but early elections might be more likely in any event.
Re Olmert
If the incompetent Olmert is not gone by the summers' expected war with Syria, there is a good chance that the result will resemble the result in Lebanon last summer.
haggai, understanding american public opinion is hard enough for me and i'm not going to pretend that i have deep expertise on israeli public opinion.
still, my contention was that the war was a mistake and that olmert would pay the price. the fact that in the immediate aftermath of the war (if, indeed, "war" is the right term for what took place) there was a rise in "hawkish" public opinion doesn't surprise me: israel is as susceptible as any other country to a "rally round the flag" effect.
but my operating assumption was that the israeli public would come to see the loss of blood and treasure as a mistake and that would cost olmert his job (which is why i'm 98% sure i gave it a year).
i'm curious, though, haggai: are you aware of any israeli polling on the question of "in retrospect, do you think the war was: a.) a good idea gone awry through poor leadership; b.) a bad idea?" now that would be interesting....
Time to put a firecracker in that toad's mouth!
Wait we've got our own ...
Ayalon would definitely pull out Labor, but last I heard Barak was essentially campaigning for Defense Minister, which suggests he'd stay in. That said, Barak is tainted with pulling out of Lebanon in the first place, and I'd give a slight edge to Ayalon at this point.
If Labor withdraws, Olmert would be left with 59 seats. He's trying to get two more from one of the Haredi parties. Yisrael Beiteinu has said they're standing behind Olmert, and I can't see the Pensioners making waves, though it would be funny if they did.
i'm curious, though, haggai: are you aware of any israeli polling on the question of "in retrospect, do you think the war was: a.) a good idea gone awry through poor leadership; b.) a bad idea?" now that would be interesting....
No, I haven't seen anything like that. Although the real split would be between people who supported (a) a limited response, but less than what the government did or (b) a stronger response than what happened (basically, an earlier and bigger use of ground troops). Very, very few people would choose "the war was a bad idea" as an option. Even people as strongly to the left as David Grossman, the novelist who lost his son in the final days of the fighting, supported an initial military response, while arguing that the fighting went on too long without gaining anything they couldn't have gotten diplomatically or politically in the first few days.
If Labor withdraws, Olmert would be left with 59 seats. He's trying to get two more from one of the Haredi parties. Yisrael Beiteinu has said they're standing behind Olmert, and I can't see the Pensioners making waves, though it would be funny if they did.
Latest reporting seems to indicate that an internal coup from within Kadima might be imminent. A Livni-led coalition with Labor back in under Ayalon or Barak might be the most likely outcome now.
A shadowy, perhaps mythical group called "Olmert supporters" reportedly wants him to resign in a few months rather than immediately.
haggai, for the record, and not to put too fine a point on it, "a limited military response followed by diplomatic/political efforts" is saying "the war was a bad idea." it concedes that the cost-benefit calculus didn't favor war.
Well, OK. As long as people agree on what things mean. I was just pointing that almost no one in Israel would have supported "no military response at all" (including today, in retrospect). But I guess we were referring to the same thing, just with different phrasing.
I would mock the emailer's expression "My TV is down", as opposed to "broken", but given that my Sony LCD came with a GPL license sheet explainingmy rights as a user of open-course software, I guess I shouldn't.
sb "explaining my rights as a user of open-source software". Meant to preview...
Actually I should have specified my satellite connection is down, but it has since occurred to me that I don't understand Hebrew, so it wouldn't matter much anyway. This should tell you something about my experience getting news from TV.
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Comments closed May 15, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
I'm pretty sure those polls are not approval polls, but rather polls where people are asked who they think should be Prime Minister. So all it means is that Olmert is essentially no one's first choice. He's really unpopular (and deservedly so), but he's not *that* unpopular.
Posted by David J. Balan | May 1, 2007 10:17 AM