Sarkozy Wins

Sorry to ruin the suspense for those of you hoping to watch the results on Tivo, but it looks like Sarkozy's beaten Royale as expected to become President of France. News accounts keep indicating that a Sarkozy win heralds big changes but, frankly, I'm pretty skeptical. Sarkozy winning represents . . . the incumbent party staying in power. Yes, Sarkozy had a falling out with Jacques Chirac, but my strong recollection from when that happened was that it was more a personal rivalries kind of thing than a major disagreement over policy.

Obviously, I'm not an expert, but even though the Times says his win "was also a triumph of a platform proposing far-reaching changes for Europe’s third-largest economy over one stressing the need to preserve the country’s welfare state" it's hard to see. This platform sees notable mostly for its platitudinal quality: "conquer unemployment," "schools that guarantee success for all children" -- sure, sounds good to me. We'll see, I guess.

Comments

In his acceptance speech he also talked about a "new Mediterranean alliance" and helping Africa. That was after he got a big cheer talking about the alliance with the U.S. I think he was hinting at playing a peace making role in the Middle East. I like the idea of watching W's bacon being saved by ... the French! Of course, it won't happen, but it's an amusing thought.

Posted by J Bean | May 6, 2007 7:49 PM

Do you know what they call a quarter pounder in France?

Posted by John Emerson | May 6, 2007 8:15 PM

Matt is for once wrong. He is somewhat mislead by the usually flaccid nature of the french political class and their ineffectual internecine jockeying for power. Sarkozy is not just another product of France's enarque elite whispering sweet nothings to get the nominal prestige that comes with the presidency, in order to do nothing much with the immense power that this position is invested with. He is very much an outsider that had to battle against the establishment of the governing UMP party of Chirac, and campaigned courageously on an openly hard right-wing platform of lower taxes, loosened labour markets and pro-american foreign policy. He has a strong mandate, and the skill to use it well. A Thatcherlike war with the unions and with defenders of the welfare state is to be expected. 'Interesting times', as the chinese would say, are coming for France. For better or for worse.

Posted by Otto | May 6, 2007 8:18 PM

Chirac triangulated to govern from the left after he lost Juppe as Prime Minister. Sarkozy is the first politician to explicitly reject the idea of welfarist government in France (which everyone else LePen, Royal, Bayrou, DeVilliers, Laguillier etc... saw as sacrosanct -- even though they proposed completely different means for defending it).

Everything now depends on the upcoming parliamentary elections. If he can get a strong majority, he'll make some radical changes. If not, there's still a chance he'll get a left-of-center PM who agrees on the need for labor market reform as Gerhard Schroeder did.

Posted by Chris | May 6, 2007 8:23 PM

Didn't Sarkozy pledge, among other things, not to repeal the 35-hour work week?

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | May 6, 2007 8:53 PM

I am glad that he won, but does it really matter?

French love to pity themselves for their malady, they usually choose center right presidents and then.. at the slightest -imagined or real- infringement of the smallest privilege, they run off to the streets.

Posted by Nick Kaufman | May 6, 2007 8:57 PM

Sorry to ruin the suspense for those of you hoping to watch the results on Tivo

Gotta love the subtle Petey dig.

Posted by Brian | May 6, 2007 8:59 PM

I think Sarkovy is a menace. I do expect him to "karscherise" people and I bet it doesn't take long to start. I have no idea how serious he is about economic policy changes but I wouldn't want to be a French Arab or African in the near future.

Posted by Ed Marshall | May 6, 2007 9:21 PM

"I wouldn't want to be a French Arab or African in the near future."

I wouldn't want to be a French Arab of African now. The only thing worse than that would be being a French Jew and getting kidnapped and tortured by French Arabs and Africans.

If Sarkozy's party wins enough seats in the legislative elections coming up, this could lead to a rennaisance for France. France already has great infrastructure, copious nuclear power, and quality academic institutions. If its economy were liberalized a little -- say, to the extent that Britain's is -- it could lead to an economic boom for France.

Plus, a more rational immigration and assimilation policy from Sarko could reduce the rampant violence of the French Arabs and Africans.

Posted by Fred | May 6, 2007 9:49 PM

Well, Fred, since most of them are third generation French descended from post-war immigration it's a bit late to close the door on the untermensch. It's gonna take measures a bit more brutal than that to see your glorious dreams for France come to fruition but Sarkozy probably has the tactics in mind.

Posted by Ed Marshall | May 6, 2007 10:04 PM

Hey Otto, Sarkozy doesn't have a "strong mandate"; he won just over 53% of the vote. This is especially not applicable to France given the relatively equal distribution of people on the left and the right, including pluralities of hard-lefties and hard-righties. France isn't America, where most voters are largely apathetic "moderates".

Posted by J | May 6, 2007 10:10 PM

"Well, Fred, since most of them are third generation French..."

Sarkozy could take Steve Sailer's suggestion and offer to pay some of them to leave. I doubt he'll do that though. The ironic reality is that the Arab and African underclass will be better off with Sarkozy as President because if France's economy is liberalized more of them will be able to get jobs. After all, the 35 hour work week, job security, etc. mean nothing if you are one of the 9% or so of unemployed Frenchmen. The Left in France has shown little concern for those left out of the cushy sinecures -- consider the selfish student protests against Chirac's short-lived proposal to liberalize employment rules.

Posted by Fred | May 6, 2007 10:14 PM

it would hilarious (to the extent i can laugh at irony to not cry) if gordon brown pulled the uk out of iraq, and sarkozy sent in french troops. if nothing else, reading the corner would be entertaining.

Posted by matty | May 6, 2007 10:21 PM

The riots have begun already, on Paris and some minor cities.

Posted by Carlos | May 6, 2007 10:40 PM

It's clear that Sarko may be looking for a showdown with the unions or students of one sort or another, the sort of showdown that Chirac had not stomach for. But I doubt that he really wants a thorough-going anglo-saxon overhaul of the labour market or has any plan on how to get there if he does. He'll go for a few foot-in-the-door tokenist changes at the margin, and probably get them, but incentives to hire will remain low.

BTW, I'm not sure France has "quality academic institutions". Some quality 'finishing schools' for civil servants, but no great research institutions. Or am I wrong?

Posted by otto | May 6, 2007 10:51 PM

"Sorry to ruin the suspense for those of you hoping to watch the results on Tivo"

Goddamnit, Matthew. Now I've got a 6 hour block of Tivo time that's utterly worthless.

Thanks a lot.

Posted by Petey | May 6, 2007 11:41 PM

Given how out of sync France historically is with the Anglosphere politically, I'd say the Sarko win heralds a John Edwards triumph next November.

If they're headed right, we must be headed left.

Posted by Petey | May 6, 2007 11:43 PM

The legislative elections in June will decide whether Sarko picks a friendly PM, or instead has to 'cohabit'. I suspect he might like that, because it's always been about being le preznit for the little man. Though for what it's worth, Sarko ain't sending the French into Iraq.

Posted by pseudonymous in nc | May 6, 2007 11:44 PM

And Bush's recklessness causes another country to vote in an anti-American leader. Or not.

Posted by Al | May 6, 2007 11:47 PM

Friends of mine who have studied at Sciences Po have said it was a joke and way too easy compared to high-quality American politics programs. While some liberalization of the economy is probably necessary, that is unlikely to do much to help the Arab and Muslim youths in France if it is not met with a liberalization of social and racial attitudes as a whole. If new jobs don't reach the banlieus, the problem may actually get worse as unemployed white kids get jobs but unemployed Arab kids don't. Will a Sarkozy presidency bring France laws that actually count race in employment and population statistics so that progress can actually be measured? I doubt it. There's hope for positive change with Sarkozy, but not much, which isn't really more than you could say about Royal.

Posted by Reality Man | May 6, 2007 11:53 PM

"And Bush's recklessness causes another country to vote in an anti-American leader. Or not.

Posted by Al | May 6, 2007 11:47 PM"

Congratulations to Bush for making sure that the socialists nominated an empty dress, the Arab and Muslim underclass and the students rioted and that the French economy underwent years of low growth and high unemployment couple with inflexible labor laws. Bush is really smart to know how exactly to manipulate France to get a right-winger elected in France to replace the previous right-winger!

Posted by Reality Man | May 6, 2007 11:57 PM

BTW, I'm not sure France has "quality academic institutions". Some quality 'finishing schools' for civil servants, but no great research institutions. Or am I wrong?

CNRS, Institut Pasteur, INRIA, Paris Observatory, are all world class in their field. The universities tend to go lower in world rankings, partly because the University of Paris was split into 13 pieces in 1970, partly because a lot of top work is done in research institutes rather than universities, and partly because some citation rankings favor English-language publications. But Pierre and Marie Curie, Strasbourg, École Polytechnique, all pretty highly regarded. Also, it's hard to think of a place like the École Polytechnique, which were attended by Cauchy, Poincaré, Fresnel and Mandelbrot, and not be a little impressed.

Posted by me2i81 | May 7, 2007 12:17 AM

"Well, Fred, since most of them are third generation French descended from post-war immigration it's a bit late to close the door.."

The fact that some number arab and african are already in France does not mean that France should not evaluate the merits or demerits of future immigration. Saying "Nothing we could do can make their population zero, so it makes no difference how many more we let in" is a very flawed argument.

Posted by pjgoober | May 7, 2007 12:25 AM

Saying "Nothing we could do can make their population zero, so it makes no difference how many more we let in" is a very flawed argument.

No, but it does take away all the bullshit terms like "immigrant" and just leaves Arab and Black.

Posted by Ed Marshall | May 7, 2007 12:33 AM

Can we please get rid of the canard that France is gripped by crippling, unmanageable unemployment? The job market in the country is not optimal for young employment seekers, I'll grant, and critically, too few youths living in poverty have opportunities, but on the whole it's hardly the dire problem some are painting it as. A few points to remember:

1. Comparing unemployment from one country to another is a fool's game. Saying that the U.S. has a 4.5% unemployment rate and France's is 8.3% is meaningless, because the figures are counted in different ways. Very often the French figures quoted are for the definition of unemployment used by the ILO, which includes not only those who are looking for a job but also those who have stopped looking. The BLS' measure does not include this latter group.

2. Rampant unemployment in France is largely confined to under-25s. See this link: in March, French people between the ages of 25 and 50 have a 7.5% unemployment rate (using the abovementioned ILO definition) and over-50s have a 5.5% rate. Subtracting the inactifs who are no longer looking for a job, something like 2% of the total over-25 population, and suddenly the figures don't look so bad for the vast majority of French people (though as I mentioned, undereducated young people and especially minorities are at a critical disadvantage.)

Posted by Andrew Levine | May 7, 2007 1:55 AM

"This platform sees notable mostly for its platitudinal quality"

All party platforms seem notable mostly for their platitudinal qualities.

One doesn't need to be an expert in the matter to understand that Sarkozy's election represents a rather major right turn for France.

Posted by Petey | May 7, 2007 7:42 AM

Sarkozy could take Steve Sailer's suggestion and offer to pay some of them to leave

Somehow, I am skeptical that offering to pay Arab & African immigrants to leave will go down well with them. More likely, they wouldn't leave, and they'd be even more alienated from mainstream French society.

By the way, given what Steve Sailer has written about Blacks, I am surprised that he hasn't advocated paying them to go back to Africa.

Posted by Peter H | May 7, 2007 11:28 AM

Peter H:

"By the way, given what Steve Sailer has written about Blacks, I am surprised that he hasn't advocated paying them to go back to Africa."

If you had read about Steve Sailer's "citizenist" philosophy, you wouldn't be surprised by that at all.

Posted by Fred | May 7, 2007 1:27 PM

Some of the remarks here show true ignorance of the situation in France. Le Pen had much more radical proposals for the reduction of government bureaucracy and the welfare state than Sarkozy. When the two-year youth employment contract met resistance no one walked it back faster than Sarkozy. He has reaffirmed the idea of “national champion” enterprises that should be sheltered from outside takeover. And get this – in the debate he promised government funded dental implants! The guy is a real Margaret Thatcher. The guy has had powerful positions in the government for years and has never shown much interest in economic libralization. Expect some nice payoffs to his corporate backers though.

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