SCIRI Dumps Khameini

It seems that the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq will no longer be claiming to take guidance from Ali Khameini, Supreme Leader of Iran, and instead follow the lead of Ali Sistani of Iraq. Juan Cole has analysis and I'll defer to him on the ins-and-outs of intra-Shiite politics.

More structurally, I think you're seeing here simply that it's hard to exert control trans-nationally. When Iraqi Shiites are politically weak, such Iraqi Shiite organizations that exist are heavily dependent on Iranian support and thus prone to doing things like recognizing the lead to accept spiritual guidance from Iran's cleric-politicians. As they gain more of a power base in Iraq, it's natural for these same Iraqi Shiite leaders to start discovering Iraqi nationalism. That Sistani does not, in practice, seem to be all that interested in directing day-to-day Iraqi politics has to make him an especially desirable "spiritual leader" for the SCIRI leadership.

Comments

Sistani is not far off an Iranian anyway. The change seems like small beer to me.

Posted by otto | May 13, 2007 10:46 AM

Spell check. Khamenei.

Posted by Tom | May 13, 2007 11:15 AM

Your explanation sounds plausible, but then why have Da'wa and the Sadrists taken a consistently nationalist stance, even during the days of Saddam? If the Wikipedia article on Da'wa is correct, SCIRI was formed in part because Da'wa refused to adopt the Iranian position that political power is based in clerical rule. This recent change in spiritual leaders seems to me to be a recognition that being seen as an Iranian pawn is weakening their position relative to the Da'wa/Sadrist bloc.

Posted by Isaac | May 13, 2007 11:22 AM

I think it's a pretty significant move, intended primarily to increase (formerly) SCIRI's nationalist cred, especially vis a vis Sadr.

Written about in more depth here:
http://alterdestiny.blogspot.com/2007/05/new-name-new-attitude.html

Posted by M. Duss | May 13, 2007 1:05 PM

If you check out Helena Cobban's blog today, you will see that the initial press reports on the Khamenei for Sistani switch have not proven accurate.

Posted by Dan Kervick | May 13, 2007 1:51 PM

Juan Cole is a notorious apologist for the Iranian mullahs and the vile Amadinejad; his views have no credibility.

Posted by SLC | May 13, 2007 8:34 PM

Which is why one of the recent prominent postings on his site was a letter from the Committee of Academic Freedom of the Middle East Studies Association (of which I believe he is a member) to President Ahmedinejad denouncing the recent arrest of Dr. Haleh Esfandari.

Posted by MikeN | May 14, 2007 3:15 AM

Re MikeN

Isn't that nice, he is in favor of academic freedom in Iran. Too bad he lies about the threats made by Amadinejad against the State of Israel. By the way, maybe he should say something nice about the availability of academic freedom in Israeli universities. But of course saying anything positive about the State of Israel would cause him to choke on his disdain.

Posted by SLC | May 14, 2007 9:38 AM

Please don't feed the troll.

Posted by hed | May 14, 2007 9:42 AM