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Too Little, Too Late

31 May 2007 10:17 am

Iraq Tank

David Ignatius says the White House is adopting the ISG recommendations after all, and it's a case of "better late than never." But is it, really? It seems to me that to a very large extent we've gotten to the sorry position we're in precisely through the Bush administration's longtime habit of doing the right thing 6-12 months too late.

Sometimes, things just can't be done too late. I keep trying to construct an analogy involving boats going over waterfalls, but the point is this. At each phase of the venture, suggests have been made of ways the US could lower our goals in the hopes of achieving something rather than just letting things get worse and worse and worse forever. The Bush administration then dismisses these critics as unduly pessimistic and things further deteriorate. Then, critics step-up their level of pessimism in response to the deterioration. At that point, the administration says the critics are being too pessimistic and adopts the policy recommendations they rejected months ago. But thanks to the continued deterioration of the situation, those old recommendations don't work anymore.

The ISG, meanwhile, was already several shades too timid back in December. It was, however, at least cleared-eyed about the situation in Iraq. Months later, we're further than ever from sectarian reconciliation, and the other points are essentially moot.

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Comments (11)

i started reading this post and said to myself "what kind of moron thinks that the bush administration is really adopting the ISG" and then i rememberd: a tenure-laden member of the post's op-ed clods and idiots society thinks that.

These reports that the bush administration is 'suddenly' taking notice of the baker-hamilton report can only come from people who never actually read the said report.

The 'new way forward' fact sheet could have come right out of the baker-hamilton report.

i started reading the comments and said to myself "what kind of moron thinks that the bush administration is really adopting the ISG" and then i remembered: the pimp hand strikes! kind of moron!

i mean, sheesh....

The "pimp hand" must be calloused after vigorously rubbing Bush's codpiece for six years.

The Iraq Study Group's final report was released on December 6, 2006. Since then 583 Americans have been killed in Iraq and 3,192 have been wounded.

Actually, this is pretty much what I've been thinking since Petraeus was placed in charge. I've read a number of books recently about the past coupla years in Iraq, and Petraeus uniformly comes off looking like one of the most competent commanders we've got -- someone who truly understands what it means and what it takes to "win the population's hearts and minds."

But -- so what? Had Petraeus's ideas been implemented at the beginning of this debacle, or even after the insurgency started then we might have had a chance. But now we've got pretty much all-out civil war, which is a much different animal than a mere "insurgency."

Every time someone on the teevee mentions that Petraeus is our leading expert on counterinsurgency, I always think: "Big deal. This thing stopped being an insurgency a long time ago. What's his experience with Civil War?"

It's worth stating explicitly that adopting the strategies proposed by one's political opponents _after_ it's too late for them to work is a good way to discredit those opponents. If every time you try the opposition's plans they fail, the opposition starts to look like they don't know what they're talking about, even if it's really your own fault that you've failed. Plus, those opponents become responsible for the time "wasted" on their "bad idea" and the public becomes responsible for pressuring you into doing something you told them wouldn't work, and you can push your own culpability out further into the future.

Re: Galen, I'm sure Rove and whoever is running things for Congressional Republicans is hoping you're right, but realistically, I don't think people are that dumb. Or maybe I should say I don't think people are dumb in that specific way. I think the vast majority of people are either aware of the benefits and drawbacks of the various proposals and demands going back and forth, or they can only see that things are going badly and Bush is the person in the office where the buck is supposed to stop being passed. Except for the contingent that thinks things are going well, but they have other issues entirely.

The only people who see a clusterfuck in Iraq, see that Bush's latest failed step kind of resembles what Democrats asked for six months ago (which he strongly opposed at the time), and think that it reflects badly on the Democrats are pretty committed partisans in the first place.

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Comments closed June 14, 2007.

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