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A New Kind of Politics

25 Jun 2007 11:53 am

Barack Obama attempts to rise above the trivial matters (i.e., chemistry and economics) that divide supporters and opponents of liquid coal technology and makes everyone unhappy with a nonsensical compromise position.

UPDATE: To say more, I think Obama had an opportunity here to just tell the truth -- it's pretty obvious he backed liquid coal because he was representing a coal-producing state even though it's not actually a good idea, and now he's flip-flopping to the correct position because as president you need to respond to matters of pressing national and global importance.

UPDATE II: The good news, though, is that an Obama presidency promises to sharply raise the value of pundits capable of making NBA analogies. For example, Obama may be like LeBron but Hillary Clinton is like the Spurs.

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Comments (23)

To be fair to Obama, this is a nearly impossible issue for a liberal Midwestern politician to deal with. The coal industry was hammered by the Clean Air Act, and while reducing air pollution obviously benefits everyone, the costs were primarily borne by the blue collar workers who lost their jobs and the rust belt communities that collapsed economically.

Ever since then, coal liquification has been pitched as the miracle solution to the coal industry's woes. People who live in coal country have been told a thousand times that this great new technology would make coal viable again as a clean-burning fuel that will provide jobs without hurting the environment. It was the win-win solution to everyone's problems and politicians on both sides of the aisle lined up to help.

And then all of a sudden, just as the process appears to be on the verge of becoming practical, environmental concerns shift 180 degrees and everyone is worried about carbon emissions instead of sulfur dioxide. And coal country gets screwed again.

A politician who wants to support his constituents in Carbondale, and simultaneously win the support of environmental groups, is in an impossible position. I suppose that Multiple Choice Mitt would have cheerfully tossed his prior commitments overboard and toed the interest group line. In which case, he would be roundly denounced as a flip-flopping sellout. Obama's "new kind of politics," based on a desire to transcend our political divisions, seems destined to produce nonsensical compromises that make no one happy.

But what the hell, in this particular case, should he have done differently?

I respond to this a little bit at my own sporadic blog, but it seems like the overwhelmingly likely outcome here is that Obama has just found a gracious way to switch his position without admitting that he's switiching it. While it's not 100% inconceivable that the 20% benchmark could be met, it seems like quite a stretch - and even if it is met, it might be far enough in the future that Obama could just ignore the promise anyway.

It's not the most honest thing in the world to effectively reverse a position by attaching a new, practically impossible condition on your promise. But that's politics, and I don't see why we shouldn't, as a policy matter, just consider it the effective reversal that it likely is.

While your analysis of the issues sounds pretty accurate, sometimes LaFollette, you have to make someone unhappy. Not all differences can be fudged. The most damaging thing is Obama's insistance that his position hasn't changed, which isn't true in any practical sense, and just adds to thing feelings of distrust on both sides.

It's doable. You bag the liquefaction step and just gasify the coal into methane (saves you some money). You have to sequester the CO2 produced (and incur the cost). You burn the methane in cars instead of gasoline or diesel. IC engines that run on methane instead of NG are already been done.

I generally agree, AJ. I guess I should have been more clear that I'm saying what Obama has done is EXACTLY the sort of phony compromise that inevitably results from the qualities that everyone admires in Obama... namely his ability to bridge the chasms between competing interest groups for the benefit of the greater good. Sometimes a self-serving flip-flop is the best policy for a Presidential candidate. Obama tried to flip-flop without breaking character. It didn't work.

But it's also worth noting that the coal liquefaction idea was originally hatched as an attempt to make coal a more environmentally sound option. The people who tried to serve both labor and the environment are, unfortunately, once again, paying the price.

"You have to sequester the CO2 produced (and incur the cost)."

What are the counter arguments to trapping the CO2 below the ground (assuming this was mandated)? It seems that once the word "coal" is introduced then the global warming alarms go off and the discussion ends.

If there aren't any arguments to counter sequestering the CO2, then the argument against coal liquefication really isn't about the C02 released in making liquefied coal, it is a argument against creating another source of fossil fuels. If coal and oil shale can be made into crude oil, then fossil fuels will be around a lot longer.

"For example, Obama may be like LeBron but Hillary Clinton is like the Spurs."

John Edwards is like the Spurs, of course. He may be the #3 seed, but he has the strongest actual game.

Hillary is like the Mavericks. Having the #1 seed is nice, but if you've got fundamental weaknesses that can be exploited, it doesn't get you very far.

Barack indeed has skills, but fake right, veer left, and then shoot 6 for 24 with 5 turnovers only takes you so far.

I stand by it: HRC is like the Spurs, no flash, no love from the media, but probably going to crush her opponents anyway. (You agree, don't you Peter, that she's probably going to take the nomination?)

Edwards is like the Warriors.

I'm for Obama, and what LP said above about the difficult position of environmentalist and pro-labor Democrats in the Midwest is true (both Obama and Durbin support corn ethanol subsidies and blocking the importation of Brazilian sugar cane ethanol). However, at some point you have to make a choice. Nobody was going to be for Alan Keyes. He is one of the most pathetic guys in the GOP. What, he would have won with 60% of the vote instead of like 76%? Also, I doubt at this point ethanol subsidies are really the key to winning Iowa or even completely necessary. Iowan politics are more complicated than that, including with regard to ethanol and other alternatives, such as switchgrass. Democrats have to be willing to talk honestly with their base about these things. He was a community organizer and as his New Yorker profile showed, he knows how to communicate with farmers in the Midwest relatively honestly about these issues. Every politician flip-flops, but if Obama wants to be above that, he is going to have to tread more carefully and honestly.

"For example, Obama may be like LeBron but Hillary Clinton is like the Spurs."

Are you implying that Obama is overpaid or that Hillary has multiple-personality disorder?

"You agree, don't you Petey, that she's probably going to take the nomination?"

I agree that she's the legitimate favorite. But I also thought the Mavericks were the legitimate favorite heading into the playoffs.

Being the #1 seed is not without meaning. It confers advantages.

But, much as with the playoffs, Hillary's #1 seed has vulnerabilities that can be exploited, and Edwards' #3 seed actually has the strongest game.

Home court advantage can't actually win you the game on its own. Players win games.

"HRC is like the Spurs, no flash, no love from the media"

You crazy. The lefty blogosphere ≠ The media.

And no flash? The wide play of the Sopranos parody was the the essence of the Hillary campaign.

Edwards, on the other hand, just plugs away on the unglamorous nitty-gritty work of policy and identification that actually wins games. It's Tim Duncan continually putting up the boring 20/10 line.

And Edwards, like the Spurs, recognizes that you win titles in the playoffs, not during the regular season. Hillary, like the Mavs, is concerned with putting up a 65 win regular season.

Petey, if Hillary is the Mavs, then who's the Warriors? Who's the unorthodox 8 seed that just happens to give her nightmarish match-up problems? Your analogy seems destined to lead you into predicting a Ron Paul upset over Hillary in the general.

What are the counter arguments to trapping the CO2 below the ground (assuming this was mandated)? It seems that once the word "coal" is introduced then the global warming alarms go off and the discussion ends.

1. It costs a pile, unless you are pretty close to an exhausted oil well or a cavern.

2. The permanence of sequestration is subject to some debate. This is somewhat countered by the fact that it only has too last 100 years or so and we'll be all out of hydrocarbon fuels anyway.

3. If you're not near an oil well or a cavern you can drill under an aquifier. This hasn't been tried on a large scale, though, as far as I know.

What are the counter arguments to trapping the CO2 below the ground (assuming this was mandated)?

1. We can't do it yet. 2. We don't know if we can actually get it to stay under ground once we've "trapped" it there. 3. There are a host of potential unpleasant environmental consequences associated with carbon sequestration. 4. All of this requires massive subsidies that could go towards funding better, cleaner, more efficient energy alternatives.

What are the counter arguments to trapping the CO2 below the ground (assuming this was mandated)?

Two linked arguments: First, it has never been done, and we don't know if it can be done permanently, with no leakage. If there's leakage, it becomes worthless. Second, there's an opportunity cost to pursuing unproven technology that is even theoretically iffy (no matter how many times people talk about it as a real possibility) rather than promoting known near-term opportunities such as denser development, wind power, or plug-in hybrids. We have a finite amount of money to spend on problems.

Am I the only person who would rather see the subsidies going towards displaced coal miners even if it's German 70's style, pointless, einsturzende neubauten type public work projects?

That was weirdly unanimous.

"Petey, if Hillary is the Mavs, then who's the Warriors? Who's the unorthodox 8 seed that just happens to give her nightmarish match-up problems?"

Edwards, obviously, is both the Warriors and the Spurs.

He's the Warriors in that his ability to run to the left of the field while simultaneously having the best general election strength of the field is the precise scenario that takes away Hillary's strengths.

Hillary's decision to vote against the war appropriation was her Avery Johnson moment to start game 1 without a center. Her whole gameplan went out the window because she recognized she was facing a nightmare mismatch.

So much for the Warriors. The multitude of absolutely eerie similarities between Edwards' position and the Spurs position is outlined above. The uncanniness factor here approaches Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln territory.

Perhaps the best comparison is that of Edwards to Bill Russell. But that one is so blindingly plain to see that I obviously have no need to go into details. It's an even better fit than Edwards to Tim Duncan.

Implement regulations to solve the energy problem and you will get more of what we've already got - a welter of cross subsidies, CAFE rules, etc. whose real purpose will be (what else?) short term political gain. Or, implement a carbon tax that reflects the true cost of fossil fuels and let the market find the best solutions.

Any reasonably competent economics grad student can demonstrate that the welfare loss of higher fuel prices via a tax is more than offset by the welfare gain of preserving market choices. So obviously our whore-a-ticians will choose the regulatory nonsense.

"For example, Obama may be like LeBron but Hillary Clinton is like the Spurs."

Two points.

(1) Isn't it a Cardinal sin for Obama, an Illinois politician to compare himself to LeBron, who has usurped the number 23, rather than Jordan?

Okay, maybe Jordan is inappropriate because no one is allowed to put themself in the same sentence with Jordan. I'd go with Devin Hester then.

(2) then who is John Edwards? The Golden State Warriors? The Pistons?

The uncanniness factor here approaches Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln territory.

It is worth noting that while Kennedy did in fact have a secretary named Lincoln, Lincoln did not have a secretary named Kennedy.

this comment thread is dead to me for comparing hillary to the spurs.

"For example, Obama may be like LeBron but Hillary Clinton is like the Spurs."

Look, I happen to be an expert in these matters. Here's how it works.

Obama: LeBron
Clinton: Duncan
Edwards: Rick Fox
Giuliani: Rasheed Wallace
McCain: Patrick Ewing
Romney: No NBA analog

Consider yourselves enlightened.


Comments closed July 09, 2007.

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