Gilbert Opting Out

Gilbert Arenas says he'll opt out of his contract after the 2007-2008 season in search of more money, though he's hoping to get that money from the Wizards rather than go elsewhere. At his current salary, Agent Zero's a fantastic bargain, but he also strikes me as the kind of guy (tons of scoring, but not terrible efficient and not much as a rebounder or defender) who's poised to get overpaid by someone as a free agent.

Comments

Yup,

The Dan Majerle's (sp?) of the world will always be in demand.

Posted by sherifffruitfly | June 10, 2007 4:08 PM

He did the same thing to the Warriors a few years ago.

Anyway, I agree with Matt -- whoever gets him in the end will almost certainly overpay.

Guy

Posted by Guy | June 10, 2007 4:08 PM

Speaking as a Portland fan, we'd be happy to overpay Paul Allen's money for The Hibachi. We need a high volume scorer to pair with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and soon-to-Blazer Greg Oden.

How's Zach Randolph, Jarett Jack, and $3 millon of Paul Allen's not-so-hard-earned cash sound?

Plus, it would give MY yet one more reason to move to Portland.

Posted by matthew c | June 10, 2007 4:18 PM

Did I miss the economic analysis that precisely demonstrates how much a player 'should' get paid based on his 'efficiency'? Talented and charismatic players like Arenas sell tickets--who would give a crap about the Wizards if he wasn't on the team?--so I would argue that he is much LESS likely to be 'overpaid' even if you could define such a concept.

Posted by SR | June 10, 2007 4:52 PM

Two words: Dana Barros.

Posted by sam | June 10, 2007 5:19 PM

Sam, are you trying to say that Gilbert Arenas is comparable to Dana Barros? Gilbert is a true combo guard, elite scorer (obviously not as efficient as some would like), that can be the cornerstone of a franchise. Barros was an undersized shooting guard that had to play point, who would have been at his best coming off the bench as a 3 point specialist. Overpaying for Gilbert would be understandable, whereas overpaying for Dana Barros would be similar to giving Mike James max money.

Posted by Neil | June 10, 2007 6:43 PM

Actually, Matthew, for Gilbert's level of usage, he is a wildly efficient scorer. According to basketball-reference.com, if you look at the top 25 players in usage over the last 3 years, only 1 player has been more efficient than Gil: the current MVP, Dirk Nowitzki.

That means he's been more efficient than Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Shaq, Yao Ming, etc. I also think that speculation about Gil going elsewhere is nonsense - Ernie will shell out the cash for him, and keep him here. If he leaves the Wizards are right back to step one without a star.

Posted by Ben | June 10, 2007 7:17 PM

think boozer.

Posted by john | June 10, 2007 7:45 PM

Unless the Wizards are incredibly stupid (as they have proven themselves to be over and over again in the past), they'll be the ones to "overpay" him.

There's really no other good reason - day in and day out - to go see hoops in Chinatown.

Posted by SoCalJustice | June 10, 2007 7:49 PM

Of course he'll opt out. The only relevant question is whether you think he is a max money player. If you do, then he'll porbably stay with DC, since the Wiz can pay him more at the max than can other teams. If not, then (depending on where other teams are, cap-wise) some other team will probably pay him the max and get him.

Posted by Al | June 10, 2007 10:51 PM

Re Arenas

I seem to recall that the same complaints that Mr. Yglesias is making about Arenas were made about Richard Hamilton a few years ago. He certainly has gone on to enjoy a fine career with the Detroit Pistons since being traded.

Posted by SLC | June 11, 2007 9:18 AM

Well, game theory predicts that free agents are almost ALWAYS overpaid, regardless of their relative merits. It's the Winner's Curse, which I think I learned about on this very blog.

Posted by OhioBoy | June 11, 2007 10:55 AM