Steve Kerr is taking over as general manager of the Phoenix Suns, leaving Mike D'Antoni as a mere coach. This doesn't strike me as a great job to take. Most accounts have it that the priority for the Phoenix ownership is to shed salary, rather than improve the team. It seems like a set-up to become the villain in a column written three years from now.
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Kerr to Phoenix
07 Jun 2007 10:10 am
Comments (34)
Meh.
A job with a contending team is a job with a contending team. Phoenix's window isn't shut quite yet.
And considering just how awful a GM D'Antoni was proving to be, Kerr has a real chance to be a hero here.
In the NBA, everyone except Red Auerbach ends up losing more than they win. So ending up the villain in a column written years from now is just part of the job.
Disagree somewhat - Kerr and owner Corver have been friends a long time, and it almost never works to have the same person being coach and GM. Bottom line is that the core needs to be split up this off-season; this core isn't winning a title, and Nash has only a couple more prime years left.
So Kerr is in the position of win-title or bust, and so maybe it is a bad job if you are looking for job security and a low bar to be successful. At the same time, the Suns will go into next season as one of eight or so teams with a realistic shot of winning the title, and so that sounds like more fun than having to start from scratch.
The Nash/D'Antoni system allows Phoenix to plug in players like Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson and make them work in ways that other teams cannot, at least at the early stage in the players' careers.
Joe Johnson's played really well in Atlanta -- you just never hear about it because he's in . . . Atlanta. Indeed, he's better than he was in Phoenix. Steve Nash is a fantastic player, but he's not a magician (note how D'Antoni plays with a super short bench), Johnson succeeded in Phoenix because he's got mad skills.
Matt Yglesias: This doesn't strike me as a great job to take. Most accounts have it that the priority for the Phoenix ownership is to shed salary, rather than improve the team.
****
As alluded to in previous comments, I think there's a chance that the Suns could have a worse overall squad next year and still be able to compete for the title. With San Antonio, it's likely that Finley/Horry/Bowen/Barry will all start to break down in the next year or two, and if Dallas continues to struggle in the playoffs, the Suns could still be situated to win the west, even if they have to part with Marion this summer to save money.
With San Antonio, it's likely that Finley/Horry/Bowen/Barry will all start to break down in the next year or two
Says you. If I were a Western Conference GM, I'd just be worrying about how many other European borderline All-Stars RC Buford manages to pull out of his ass before Tim Duncan's knees give out.
Mad skills or no, Johnson's Nash-year numbers in Phoenix are amazing. Pre-Nash, he's shooting .305 from the 3-point line in PHO. Then they plug him in to Steve and Johnson's 3-point shooting zooms to .478. Then he goes to ATL where he settles down to .356 and .381.
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/joe_johnson/career_stats.html
this core isn't winning a title
Wait, what? Everyone, I think, believes that
(1) PHX had a much better shot at winning Game 5 with Stat and Diaw,
(2) PHX would be favored in a Game 7 at Phoenix,
(3) The winner of the PHX-SA series was likely to end up World Champions.
Assuming Stern gets back whatever pictures Pop has of Jackson, why can't PHX win next year?
The core needs to be split up? Are you kidding me? For 3 years running, the Suns have been the 2nd-best team in the West (2 years losing in the conf finals, this year losing in the semis to the eventual conference champ), which pretty much makes them the 2nd-best team in the league. Why the fuck would you break that team up? What "core" would you get that would do better?
If they keep the Nash/Marion/Amare core together, the Suns will be one of the top-3 title contenders until Nash starts to break down. Theoretically, that should happen soon, but the guy seems weirdly ageless.
Petey, what's your evidence that D'Antoni's been a crappy GM? I really like the way they've put their team together, but I know most of the work was done before D'Antoni became GM.
"Petey, what's your evidence that D'Antoni's been a crappy GM?"
Good god, you can't be serious. Everything they've done since Colangelo left has been wrong.
Even if you don't think Marion should've been dealt last summer, (which I do), you'd still have to be crazy or not paying attention to think D'Antoni hasn't been a clear and present danger.
Hey, I never said I was paying attention. I have to idea whether Marion should have been dealt last summer. Any idea what they could have got for him? That seems like an important question.
I know they don't want to pay to keep Marion. I've tried really hard to care about the salary-related aspects of the NBA, but I just can't make myself do it.
Anyway, it was a sincere question. I don't think D'Antoni's been doing a good job -- I have no idea what sort of job he's been doing as GM. Seems like he's avoiding fucking up the good team Colangelo left him, but he hasn't done much to improve it. So I guess he gets a C. He'd look like a genius if the Suns had Atlanta's pick, though.
"Hey, I never said I was paying attention."
The biggest crime is giving up three first round draft picks last summer to sign Marcus Banks to a $25m contract. And there are other not insignificant crimes as well.
My favorite moment was when he explained that he couldn't consider trading Marion because they'd been through too much together. Think about that one.
Judged purely as a GM, D'Antoni makes Billy King look smart.
Wow, I'd forgotten all about what they gave up for Marcus Banks. Damn, that was stupid.
On the other hand, I think Marion is really, really important to that team, and I wouldn't trade him unless you're getting comparable value in return. I know, he'll probably leave anyway, but the Suns have a good shot at the title next year, just as they did this year, and neither one would happen without Marion.
"I'd just be worrying about how many other European borderline All-Stars RC Buford manages to pull out of his ass before Tim Duncan's knees give out."
See:
http://www.interbasket.net/players/scola.htm
The first thing Kerr should do is draft Sean Williams, the center dismissed from the Boston College team this year for repeated run-ins with a) his coach, and b) marijuana. Williams is about a fraction of a smidgen behind Greg Oden as an inside defender and, absent the baggage, would be no worse than the third pick in the draft this year. Some good team is going to take him late in the first round and be acclaimed as geniuses by next November.
The second thing he should do is tell Shawn Marion to STFU immediately.
Said it before, I'll say it again: Marion is more important to that team's success than Amare, and less easily replaced.
Also: Marion will never be as good anywhere as he is right now in Phoenix.
Ergo: if for salary or chemistry reasons either Marion or Amare needs to go, it should be Amare.
And yet: Marketing concerns mean that'll never happen.
If Rod Thorn listens to me, Sean Williams will be gone by the time PHX drafts.
As to Matthew's post, if the owner really wants to cut payroll, then I would agree. But we just don't know the degree to which that's true. Marion is a great player (pace Petey), and having to dump him would be a significant blow to the team unless Kerr could pull a rabbit out of a hat...
"As to Matthew's post, if the owner really wants to cut payroll, then I would agree."
I think he want to be under the tax, just like almost everyone else in the league.
If the tax didn't exist, or if Sarver is willing to pay it, then of course I'd keep Marion. But the game gets more interesting when everyone plays under the tax, and under those rules, I would've dealt Marion last summer at the peak of his value.
Again -- dealt Marion for what? (who? whom?) Most of the Marion deals you would have made would have kept the Suns from sniffing the title this year and having a good shot at it next year, unless there was some deal out there I never heard about.
Al:
I think you're wrong about Marion, who strikes me as a lesser Josh Howard. That is, he's an elite garbage man, but I wouldn't want to build a team around him.
A *lesser* Josh Howard? Are you kidding? The only thing Howard does better than Marion is handle the ball and create for other guys, and that's not a big part of either guy's game. Marion is a better scorer, better rebounder, just as good a defender (probably better interior defender).
Anyway, I wouldn't want to build a team around Marion either, but the Suns aren't build around Marion.
Scola will be a Spur next year. How he fits will be another matter. Certainly, the organization has been very high on him for a long time, and has been disappointed not to bring him over the last three seasons.
Tim, you can hold onto that bitterness as long as you want, but the numbers are remarkably consistent. The Spurs have won roughly 2/3 of all games played against the Suns since Nash joined them. In Phoenix, and in San Antonio, in the regular season, and in the play-offs. Everyone may think they would have had been favored to win a game seven, but that just means everyone would be wrong. Spurs have lost twice at home and twice on the road in these play-offs; they are too veteran and impervious to the crowd to be rattled by the setting. Spurs went 5-1 in the playoffs in Phoenix during those two series. The Suns weren't jobbed; they were beaten.
"Again -- dealt Marion for what?"
I wanted to deal him for Tyson Chandler last summer, but there were other interesting offers floating around as well, if you don't see as clearly as I do of how well Chandler would've fit into that team.
At the end of the day, as long as you got a contributor back, it didn't matter what you dealt him for. You just had to ditch his contract. Holding Marion while using the mid-level is why the Suns had to get rid of the three first rounders - they couldn't afford signing their draft picks without hitting the tax threshold.
By keeping him, Marion has less trade value now than he did 12 months ago. And the tax problems still haven't gone away.
He's just too expensive for what he delivers to Phoenix.
Everyone may think they would have had been favored to win a game seven, but that just means everyone would be wrong
Say "Hi!" to Mr. Peabody for me.
The Suns are kinda built around Marion, to the extent that they rely on having a package of skills on the floor that Marion compresses into a single body. Every once in a while someone at the Celtics board I read floats a trade proposal for Marion and I break into hives because I think in another system he'd rapidly revert to what he was before Nash showed up - a borderline all star - but I think he's crucial to the Suns. He's an excellent defender at multiple positions (which allows the Suns to variously hide Amare and Nash on D), in addition to giving them a guy who can rebound very well against big men, stretch the floor on offense, and push the pace of the game incredibly hard. That's crucial. The Suns aren't built around Marion in the sense that the Bulls weren't built around Pippen, but both players' relatively unique skillsets facilitated the construction of the rest of the team in a way that would have been difficult to replace with any other single player. (For the record, I think Pippen was a vastly better player than Marion, but.)
FWIW, Quarterican, I'm not a Marion hater. I appreciate many of the point you're making about Marion's role with the Suns.
But the tax threshold forces hard choices. And by holding onto Marion, the team suffers in other, not insignificant, ways.
And I'm not even sure I'd deal him this summer unless something pretty compelling was put on the table. Last summer was the correct moment to pull the trigger. Now, a lot of the damage has already been done to the team architecture, and Nash has a year less to adjust to any major changes.
Petey -
My point is ultimately that if financial considerations were going to force me to pick between Marion and Amare, I'd pick Marion, because the list of guys in the league who can come close to replacing Amare's skills is a lot longer than the list of guys who can do the same for Marion. BUT dealing Amare would hurt the marketing / image / income considerations of the Suns more than dealing Marion would, so it won't happen. (It's possible that the added income related to Amare's popularity contributes to making him a better financial proposition for the Suns, but I wouldn't know the details on that.)
As I think I wrote here a while back, Garnett is actually a guy I think could successfully slide into either the Marion OR the Amare roles (the only guy in the league who fits THAT description) - but if money's a problem, that's not a solution unless you think KG can be convinced to ultimately resign for a lot below market value.
I agree wholeheartedly with what Quarterican says above. However, I didn't realize the extent to which Barbosa and Diaw's contacts explode this upcoming year. Given the tax issues, I think I would try to trade Diaw.
Joe Johnson's played really well in Atlanta -- you just never hear about it because he's in . . . Atlanta. Indeed, he's better than he was in Phoenix. Steve Nash is a fantastic player, but he's not a magician (note how D'Antoni plays with a super short bench), Johnson succeeded in Phoenix because he's got mad skills.
I agree, but I don't think this diminishes my point. Players like Johnson and Diaw have trouble breaking through when they are young, because they are skilled players, but not highly assertive scorers. I watched every one of Joe Johnson's game in Boston and he was a soft, passive player - in part, because he had no role in Jim O'Brien's isolation offense. You could see the talent, but he couldn't get it together.
Phoenix took full advantage of his skills and he blossomed, giving him the confidence he took with him to Atlanta. I suspect Diaw would do something similar, although he is not as talented as JJ.
My point is simply this: the Phoenix system relies on different skills and attributes than most teams', which (potentially) allows them to identify struggling-but-talented youngters whom they mold into winners. Obviously, it doesn't work with one-dimentional guys like Marcus Banks...but there other guys in the Johnson/Diaw mold that Kerr could target.
Johnson succeeded in Phoenix because he's got mad skills.
No. Johnson has suceeded in Phoenix because he is a moderately talented swing man on a terrible, terrible team that allows him to dominate the ball. There are plenty of swingmen on bad teams who put up big numbers.
I mean Atlanta.
"The Suns weren't jobbed; they were beaten."
They may have been beaten anyway; the Spurs are, indeed, veteran. But they were jobbed, and seriously.
Why break them up any more than you have to? Keep Marion, keep Amare, sign one more sub big man to go with Thomas, maybe even one who doesn't exactly fit the D'Antoni/Nash offense, but who can bring decent D (and 6 more fouls) against the Duncan's of the world, and who has a good attitude about it all. Ah, if only Alonzo were available, or Kevin Willis were, say, 38 again ...
I guess the Phoenix owner doesn't feel like paying a dollar for dollar fine to the NBA for going over the salary cap. My understanding is that as things stand right now, the Suns are set to be $10 million over the cap next season, so that's allot of money.
Seeing how a) the Suns owner appears to be trying to shed $10 million of salary and b) Shawn Marion has an opt out after next season...
Who is going to want Shawn Marion for with his $15 million salary? He's a guy they may only have for one year, and there doesn't seem to be a ton of teams beating down the door's to pay the NBA fine of exceeding the salary cap.
All this tells me that if they deal Marion, they will have to deal for less. Then they will just have to hope that their judgment is good enough to sign a free agent or two, make a good decision in the draft, and hope that Nash and Amare stay 100% healthy next year.
I don't keep up with this too close, so I'm not sure how the Bucks salary cap situation looks, but I would be interested in Villanueava from the Bucks. Also that Pavlovic guy from Cleveland looks like he could fit it to a more up-tempo team. He's a restricted free agent making almost 2mil.
Obviously getting someone like Garnett would be great, but if the Suns owner means what he says about getting under the cap, then Suns fans will have to hope that a couple or a few lesser than Marion types will round out the team enough to put them back into a position to contend.
Still weird that Kerr's dad was assassinated as the president of the American University of Beirut.
Comments closed June 21, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
On the other hand, as long as Nash and D'Antoni remain in place, the Phoenix GM position is a pretty unique and attractive gig. The Nash/D'Antoni system allows Phoenix to plug in players like Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson and make them work in ways that other teams cannot, at least at the early stage in the players' careers.
Guys likes Diaw and Johnson start their careers as versatile-but-passive players who struggle in the slowed down, isolation-based offenses that teams without PG's are forced to run. What Phoenix does is unique and different enough to exploit player skills that are less valuable on other teams. It's a good place to be.
As long as Nash and D'Antoni remain in Phoenix, Kerr will be able to plug in young, talented guys who don't quite fit on other teams. And they will thrive in Phoenix. If Nash finally gets old, of course, the party will be over and Kerr will be in the same boat as everyone else, with the added burden of a somewhat cheap ownership group.
Posted by owenz | June 7, 2007 10:35 AM