« The Suburbanist Paradox | Main | Tollbooth Trouble »

A Question of Priorities

05 Jul 2007 09:10 am

Brian Beutler quotes Roger Cohen and finds some problems with this snip:

The United States should propose broad, high-level talks with Iran across the range of issues confronting the two countries — Iraq, Afghanistan, nuclear weapons, Lebanon, Israel-Palestine — while dropping its meaningless insistence that Iran suspend nuclear enrichment activities before talks begin....

If the answer to the invitation is no, and Iranian-orchestrated attacks in Iraq continue, America should play hardball.

For my part, not as an objection to Cohen but merely as an observation, the issue here is that it's all a question of priorities. As Cohen notes, there are a lot of issues in US-Iranian relations. There's also the question of escalating the level of US-Iranian conflict. From where I sit, the most important issues on the DC-Teheran docket are verifiably committing Iran to remaining a non-nuclear weapons state and preventing the emergence of al-Qaeda safe havens in Iraq and Afghanistan. These two goals can only be genuinely accomplished through peaceful agreement between the United States and Iran. Under the circumstances, I would regard the outbreak of open hostilities between the US and Iran as a disaster due to its deleterious effects on both the fight against al-Qaeda and our hopes for stopping nuclear proliferation.

Others, though, take a different view of the situation. Some place much higher weight on securing an Iraqi government that's likely to be willing to play host to a large US military contingent for an indefinite period of time. Some place more weight on making Afghanistan a place where poppy for opium export isn't grown. Some place more weight on trying to get Iran to stop its financial support of Hezbollah. What's more, some think unilateral military action isn't the method of stopping Iran's nuclear weapons program that's least likely to succeed -- they think it's the way that's likeliest to work. My guess is that Cohen and I disagree about some of these things, though I'm not quite sure. My view is that it should be quite possible to secure my priorities through diplomatic means, and essentially impossible to secure them through military means. At the same time, my interest in preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and in preventing al-Qaeda from obtaining safe havens in Iraq or Afghanistan is sufficiently strong that I would agree to some deals with Iran that others would reject.

Photo by Flickr user Koldo used under a Creative Commons license

Share This

Comments (20)

I think they just want to invade Iran to steal their resources, and to funnel money into politically allied defense contractors, and all of the arguments these people make are lies.

I also think Matt Yglessias gives too much of a benefit of the doubt to people who clearly don't deserve it. It's clear the resources and corruption were to the reasons that the Iraq war was started, along with the electoral advantage Republicans thought it would bring them. I don't see why we should pretend that these people believe the things they're saying. They might on a conscious level, but deep down it's only about money and oil.

The purpose of US dealing with Iran must be to care about US national interests from this point forward (Iran's nukes, al-Qaeda in Iraq/Afghanistan) and to offer full concessions on everything that does not involve a US national interest from this point forward (opening embassy in Iran, end of all non-weapons related trade prohibitions, Iranian entry into WTO etc, declaration that US will seek withdrawal of all Israeli settlements on the land Israel conquered in 1967, ending direct action towards encouraging regime change in Iran (as opposed to letting Western soft power do its thing over the decades), I'd add no need for US bases in Iraq, since they're unnecessary, etc etc).

But other than listing all of these priorities, the basic point of any negotiation has to be that the US will cease seeking to run the middle east in the interests of rents from oil companies, Jewish colonialism, and US military domination. If those objectives remain, there's no room for negotiation, since interests are entirely opposed. As Matt said a few weeks ago, we need to think about the social basis for US-Iranian (and US-Arab) cooperation. That social basis must allow for the nationalism and anti-colonialism of the Iranians, and for a reasonable (i.e. not dictated) relationship between US and local economic interests, or there's no accomodation possible.

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/05/secular_parties_in_the_arab_wo.php

MI:"My view is that it should be quite possible to secure my priorities through diplomatic means, and essentially impossible to secure them through military means. At the same time, my interest in preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and in preventing al-Qaeda from obtaining safe havens in Iraq or Afghanistan is sufficiently strong that I would agree to some deals with Iran that others would reject."

I wonder why, assuming you don't read this and so cannot answer, anyone would think these can be obtained through diplomacy? America has a lot of things that Iran wants - nuclear technology, an end to trade restrictions, help in building a pro-Iran government in Iraq, help controlling al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and so on. What has America got that Iran wants that America wants to give to Iran? Well the lifting of trade sanctions seems the only tool America has. Iran only has to delay and delay and delay some more. It can try to split the UN from the US (and will succeed), it can try to split Europe from the US (and is doing rather well at the moment), it can refuse to talk and when it does, it can drag talks out forever. Which means that it can continue to build nuclear weapons, a US withdrawal from Iraq is inevitable and Iran can and will ensure that an acceptably pro-Iranian government is formed there, it can sit back and let the US fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan while slowly absorbing most of Western Afghanistan's economy. So what has America got to make Iran do anything that America would like it too? Well that seems to me to be one carrot and one stick - lifting trade embargoes and bombing them. If you take the stick off the table, you're left with the carrot. But that would only help their nuclear program and boost their economy. So it is win-win to Iran either way. Either they get their bomb or they get more trade or most likely they get both. And there is not a lot America can do about it.

Either they get their bomb or they get more trade or most likely they get both. And there is not a lot America can do about it.

Well, hell, if bombing 'em would make you feel better, just go ahead.

Posted by Jeffrey Davis | July 5, 2007 10:49 AM:"Well, hell, if bombing 'em would make you feel better, just go ahead."

Would it make me feel better? Well it couldn't hurt.

I still see no reason to take the one way the West has of influencing the Iranian government at an acceptable cost off the table. They only have to wait us out and they will win everything. Why would they agree to anything America wants?

>>> Nutty neocon alert

Iran is a peaceful country with no history of aggression against its neighbors going back to...when? Ancient Persia? When someone says that "it couldn't hurt" to bomb them, you know you're entering...the world of the nutty neocons.

>>> Nutty neocon alert

Would it make me feel better? Well it couldn't hurt.

really, they're not light-hued enough to count as human beings.

"Iranian-orchestrated attacks in Iraq continue. "

I have seen no evidence tying Iran to attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq.

Yes, that includes Michael Gordons's dutiful recitation of various flights of fancy from Bush P.R. flacks, particularly concerning the "interrogation" of "Hamid the Mute." Gordon's Iraq credentials are unquestionable.

Posted by Jim W | July 5, 2007 11:27 AM:"Iran is a peaceful country with no history of aggression against its neighbors going back to...when? Ancient Persia? When someone says that "it couldn't hurt" to bomb them, you know you're entering...the world of the nutty neocons."

Iran is not a peaceful country. It has been aggressively and stealthily exporting Islamist terrorism for years. It has soldiers in Lebanon over the objections of the Lebanese government who are training Hezbollah terrorists. It has sent military specialists to Gaza to do the same for Hamas. I think you need to look up the Safavids, although I am happy to admit that was some time ago. It couldn't hurt me. It might not even hurt the Iranians - it depends on the type of bombing. And it could hardly be worse than leaving the Mullahs in charge either way.

Posted by Jim W | July 5, 2007 11:27 AM:">>> Nutty neocon alert"

What is remotely neo-Con about my post?

What is remotely neo-Con about my post?

Your belief that American goals in the Middle East are best met through the use of force despite mounting eveidence that this is counter productive, and the implicit assumption that the inevitable staggering loss of life--not to mention the health of any domestic Iranian resistance movement--in the event of American military strikes are small costs, to be born eagerly in the service of a miltaristic vision of American foreign power remaking the world, a vision that makes you feel better.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 12:17 PM:"Your belief that American goals in the Middle East are best met through the use of force despite mounting eveidence that this is counter productive"

Which is ironic because if I were a Communist I'd almost certainly believe that. As it happens not only do I not believe that, I have never said it either. Force is something that has to be taken into account and should not be ruled out from the start. That does not mean it is the best tool. Indeed the whole point of my post was that America has no good tools.

Nor do I accept that the use of force is being shown up as counter productive. The lack thereof perhaps.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 12:17 PM:"and the implicit assumption that the inevitable staggering loss of life"

Why do you think loss of life is inevitable or that it would be staggering? The 1999 bombing campaign over Kosovo killed under 1000 people including the military. That is not massive and it is not staggering.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 12:17 PM:"not to mention the health of any domestic Iranian resistance movement"

Yes, domestic resistance movements do so much better under Islamist regimes.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 12:17 PM:"in the event of American military strikes are small costs, to be born eagerly in the service of a miltaristic vision of American foreign power remaking the world, a vision that makes you feel better."

The world is a mess. It should be remade. In places and at time it has to be remade. This may be one of them. The thought of Iran having a bomb is pretty bad. My vision is not militaristic. Rather I see American military action as preventive. By a little light bombing (and/or other military action) America prevents worse wars. If America keeps the nutters apart or out of power, as it has done in Europe for a long time, they do not kill each other much. Europe's history over the past 50 years has not been militaristic. Nor has Japan's. It is not as if the Iranians and their neighbors have better records at restraining themselves from murdering each other and anyone else that comes across their path. A refusal to allow America to act usually means someone else will at much greater human cost.

What I want to know is, why are all the Iranian guys in that photo wearing the same T-shirt?

Re: "Force is something that has to be taken into account and should not be ruled out from the start. "
Yes, that's obvious. So what? That's different from saying that it couldn't hurt to bomb Iran.

The use of force is always an option in our dealings with any country, ranging all the way from North Korea to Great Britain.

To pick a country at random, do you think we should take the use of force off the table in our dealings with Israel?

Soccer game?

Posted by Jim W | July 5, 2007 12:51 PM:"Yes, that's obvious. So what? That's different from saying that it couldn't hurt to bomb Iran."

It is not obvious around here. I don't see much of a down side to bombing Iran at all except the possibility of casualties. It is likely to make the Iranians are more responsive. How is that a bad thing?

Posted by Jim W | July 5, 2007 12:51 PM:"The use of force is always an option in our dealings with any country, ranging all the way from North Korea to Great Britain."

I am not convinced that is the case with Great Britain actually. In fact I think I can say that force has clearly been ruled out.

Posted by Jim W | July 5, 2007 12:51 PM:"To pick a country at random, do you think we should take the use of force off the table in our dealings with Israel?"

Yes. It is not worth the time or effort over. There are so few situations that would merit the use of force against key allies like Britain and Israel they are not worth the manpower to work out.

Not that I see the relevance of this line of question except, presumably, to muddy the water and prepare a neo-Con accusation.

The point is merely that saying the use of force is "on" or "off" the table is a useless semantic game.

I would say that, for a policeman, the use of force is always on the table with respect to a guy with a long criminal history, just as it is with a citizen who's never even had a misdemeanor.

Similarly, the use of force is always an option for any other country. So, talking about it in these terms is meaningless.

I gotta say, I feel like 1000 is a massive loss of life, but that's just perspective.

Yes, domestic resistance movements do so much better under Islamist regimes.

Better than they do when they can be plausibly tarred with the brush of aiding and abetting American imperialism domestically. Look, the resistance groups themselves are saying that U.S. military action will be counter productive.

The world is a mess. It should be remade. In places and at time it has to be remade. This may be one of them. The thought of Iran having a bomb is pretty bad. My vision is not militaristic. Rather I see American military action as preventive. By a little light bombing (and/or other military action) America prevents worse wars. If America keeps the nutters apart or out of power, as it has done in Europe for a long time, they do not kill each other much.

That's a neocon-ish vision. Also 1) your protestations aside, this is a militaristic view of foreign policy, and a remakably flippant one ("a little light bombing"); and 2) Europe has endured a fair number of nutters since heavy US military presences were established there 60 odd years ago. Franco comes to mind. Should we have bombed Spain? Lightly of course.

Iran is trending politically moderate (relatively speaking). As we saw with 9/11, an unprovoked attack is going to empower the reactionaries and weaken the moderate/liberal forces; aren't we trying to do the exact opposite? If we bombed them, they wouldn't be scared and suddenly open to compromise, as so many neocons seem to think...no, I think they'd remember that a weakened US military is right next door, and, hey, isn't that insurgency thing going on? I don't know if Iran is involved in any aspects of the insurgency or not, but you can guarantee that bombing runs would start/ramp up efforts in this area.

And, Iraq and Iran are primarily Shia, and we've seen how religious identity can take precedence over nationalism. If we attack Iran, I think that Iraqi Shias wouldn't take too kindly to it. The Shiite militias would get all kinds of new recruits, and an even-more-enraged populace could force the government to "vote us out."

I don't see much of a down side to bombing Iran at all except the possibility of casualties.

Do you understand how sociopathic this statement is?

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 1:04 PM:"Better than they do when they can be plausibly tarred with the brush of aiding and abetting American imperialism domestically. Look, the resistance groups themselves are saying that U.S. military action will be counter productive."

I would like to see any evidence of that - and if it is true it point to the real problem which is such deep seated irrational hatred of the West that even the democrats hate us. In which case there can be no positive engagement and bombing is all that is left. The resistance groups are not saying that. Some of them are - presumably the ones in the pay of the Iranian government among them.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 1:04 PM:"That's a neocon-ish vision."

Funny because it is also a socialist vision and a liberal one as well.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 1:04 PM:"Also 1) your protestations aside, this is a militaristic view of foreign policy, and a remakably flippant one ("a little light bombing")"

It is a blog. So sue me. It is not in any way whatsoever militaristic. Military action ought to be avoided if possibe, but if not possible, it needs to be used as sparingly as possible. With Iran I don't see any other credible alternative. Not that force is all that credible, but nothing else is either.

Posted by justin | July 5, 2007 1:04 PM:"2) Europe has endured a fair number of nutters since heavy US military presences were established there 60 odd years ago. Franco comes to mind. Should we have bombed Spain? Lightly of course."

Franco's Spain was little threat to anyone, even the Spanish after 1945. What would be the point? I am not convinced that tolerance of Franco and the other Latin dictators was the best policy, but it was better than letting the south of Europe go Communist. So on that subject the question is confusing. If Franco was developing nuclear weapons? Well now that would be clear.

Posted by Nobody Important | July 5, 2007 1:46 PM:"Iran is trending politically moderate (relatively speaking)."

Given that Ahmedinejad defeated the liberals and the Conservative establishment generally routed them and destroyed all their efforts at reform I assume that is wishful thinking on your part. Or perhaps do you mean that the liberal intellectuals that liberal intellectual Western journalists speak to are trending politically moderate?

Posted by Nobody Important | July 5, 2007 1:46 PM:"As we saw with 9/11, an unprovoked attack is going to empower the reactionaries and weaken the moderate/liberal forces"

Cute.

Posted by Nobody Important | July 5, 2007 1:46 PM:"If we bombed them, they wouldn't be scared and suddenly open to compromise, as so many neocons seem to think...no, I think they'd remember that a weakened US military is right next door, and, hey, isn't that insurgency thing going on? I don't know if Iran is involved in any aspects of the insurgency or not, but you can guarantee that bombing runs would start/ramp up efforts in this area."

Perhaps but the Middle East rarely reacts the way you think it might. The more the Iranians talk tough the more scared they are I think. Right now they are really talking tough. No doubt that on their own, thanks to their bone headed economic policies (and I love fixing interest rates below the prevailing rate of inflation), their economy will slowly implode. But I don't see that a little bit of help that way wouldn't be a good thing.

Posted by Steve | July 5, 2007 1:59 PM:"Do you understand how sociopathic this statement is?"

No although I do understand that most of the Left prefers to demonize their opponents than think about what they have to say.


Comments closed July 19, 2007.

Copyright © 2008 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.