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Historical Analogy of the Day

11 Jul 2007 10:10 am

Overextension frequently results from local failures of imperial management rather than simply "foreign policy" dynamics. The Spanish Habsburg's conflicts with England -- which scholars often cite as a key factor in Spanish overextension -- were, in part, a byproduct of a peripheral uprising in the Netherlands. Both Philip II and Philip III hoped that, by either conquering England or forcing it to capitulate to Spanish hegemonic coontrol, they could cut off England's strategic support for the Dutch (e.g., Allen 2000). Sustained rebellions represent, in fact, only an extreme case of these dynamics. As resistance to imperial bargains grows, empires will find it more difficult to garner and direct resources -- manpower, money, trade, and so forth -- from and toward peripheries. As their political capacity to manage peripheries diminishes they will, in turn, be more likely to suffer from overextension. Those who currently advocate American -- or American-backed Israeli -- military action against Syria and Iran embrace very similar reasoning to that of the Spanish: they argue that American problems in Iraq, and in the entire region, might be resolved if only the United States could neutralize those regimes that sponsor resistance to its objectives (e.g., Kristol 2006).

That's Daniel Nexon and Thomas Wright, "What's at Stake in the American Empire Debate?" available in your May 2007 issue of the American Political Science Review. More here.

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Comments (10)

Dan Nexon taught my senior department seminar at Georgetown. He is quite awesometastic and he also blogs.

This reads like the authors were opposed to starting wars against Iran and Syria (the sane position) and then went searching for an historical rationale to support that position, rather than an objective historical analysis that coincidentally finds a modern parallel.

Among other things, the Spaniards' conflict with England was motivated by various other factors beyond the rebellion in the Dutch provinces.

A temptation always exists to expand a limited war with limited objectives. In its' rawest form, it is the desire to "nuke 'em all" that right wingers profess. Bill Kristol's desire to attack either Syria or Iran comes from the same well of emotion. This well of ego and hubris can only be sterilized by logic and fact, but someone like Kristol doesn't have either the emotional distance or personal experience with the events in Iraq in order to determine US interests rationally and logically. Victory and events exist inside his own head.

Among other things, the Spaniards' conflict with England was motivated by various other factors beyond the rebellion in the Dutch provinces.

But of course The Weekly Standard's desire to go to war with Iran is motivated by various other factors beyond the conflict in Iraq. Iran supports proxies who fight our proxy in Israel, we have Afghanistan-related conflicts, Iran has in the past backed proxies who fight our proxies in Riyadh, etc.

The US and Iran wouldn't be battling each other for influence in Iraq if not for the fact that there's a wider context of US-Iranian hostility.

What? History began before the Munich Conference?

Does the Czar know???

This is a clear violation of the AJ- Historic Analogy Moratorium, cease and desist. Even if the Armada had faired a bit better, invading Iran today would be a bad idea.

This is a clear violation of the AJ- Historic Analogy Moratorium, cease and desist. Even if the Armada had faired a bit better, invading Iran today would be a bad idea.

May I recommend the radical practice of actually reading the damn article?

Nexon and Wright are making a general argument about imperialism, supported with examples. The point is that empires consistently find themselves lacking in the resources and support that they need, and commonly seek to lash out ineffectively at those they perceive as holding back the resources or holding back their inevitable success.

You have reduced their point to a caricature - they're making a larger arguments based on historical analysis of structures of empire, and you've reduced it to a banal anecdote, x happened, so y will happen, which isn't what they're saying at all.

Divguy- I was responding to MY, whose presentation, perhaps contrary to the intentions of the original authors, is using the Historical Analogy of the Day as a discrete and esoteric analogy argument against getting involved militarily with Iran. Thus reducing their academic paper to an erudite caricature.

This is way too funny. I'm taking Nexon's class on American Grand Strategy right now. I have a paper on the Hapsburg Spanish scenario due next week.

A very interesting strategic problem for the US government is the huge potential for trade between China/Japan and the EU. It's surprising to compare the current small volume of trade between those two areas with the much greater flows those areas have with the US.

Part of it is the historical geographical barriers. But if Global Warming continues to reduce the Arctic Icecap, a year-long Northwest Passage across northern Canada will reduce the shipping distance between EU and China/Japan by almost 6000 miles.

Russia --with it control over the land corridor from Asia to western Europe -- could also become a new Silk Road. Which may explain the strong effort the US government is making to build ties with Eastern Europe. The chain of Eastern European countries voting to support the US in the invasion of Iraq formed a SOLID wall from Denmark to Turkey. That wall could also prevent economic ties between Asia and the EU -- by blocking the connection of those two areas via fiber optic and railroad corridors.


Comments closed July 25, 2007.

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