Should we respond to the al-Qaeda presence in Pakistan with U.S. military action? Blake Hounshell says no, arguing convincingly that the Pakistani population is supportive of efforts by the Pakistani government to crack down on violent groups but would turn sharply against American incursions.
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Lets Not Invade Pakistan
20 Jul 2007 10:52 am
Comments (13)
It's almost as if we ought to be standing up the Pakistani Army, so we can stand down.
The fact that Pakistan would whomp the s&!t out of any land invader and then make life utter hell for every US base in that 1/4 of the globe shouldn't enter into the discussion by the Serious People(tm) of course.
Cranky
Slightly OT: There's an excellent article by William Dalrymple on Pakistan in this week's New Yorker (with the polar bears on the cover.)
It's by far the most informative description I've read of the present condition of Pakistan and how social class, money, and history interacted to produce it.
It's not clear to me why we should care about whether the Pakistani population is supportive. If we could invade northern Pakistan and take out Osama Bin Ladin and Sheik Omar and if that would actually have an impact on Al Qaeda's ability to conduct further terrorist attacks against the US and our allies, then it would be something worth strongly considering. That would have seemed like a no brainer 6 years ago. Today it's probably the case that taking out Bin Laden wouldn't stop Al Qaeda and its clones and wannabes from carrying out operations in the US, UK, etc.
"Argues convincingly"? That's like a half-screen blog post. Convincing if you're already convinced, I suppose.
As I've been arguing over at Jack Balkin's place, if al-Qaeda and the Taliban are operating out of the NW Province, then we need to get Musharraf to sign onto a "joint U.S.-Pakistani force," which in practice might be a U.S. force with a Pakistani officer or two in tow.
If Musharraf won't buy that, then we issue an ultimatum: control your borders, or we'll do it for you. It's an issue of sovereignty -- if Pakistan's not willing or able to exercise sovereignty over Waziristan or whatever, then Pakistan loses its right to complain about our disrespecting its sovereign rights.
Musharraf is in office right now b/c he's convinced the U.S. that he's indispensable. There are no indispensables.
This is right. Of course, Matthew seems oblivious to the fact that it contradicts every Left-wing complaint that "we haven't gotten Osama yet". I thoroughly expect Matthew to reply, next time he sees some Democrat complain that Bush isn't focusing on getting al Qaeda in Pakistan, that we ought to be giving the Pakistanis time to get al Qaeda. Yeah, right.
"It's not clear to me why we should care about whether the Pakistani population is supportive. If we could invade northern Pakistan and take out Osama Bin Ladin and Sheik Omar and if that would actually have an impact on Al Qaeda's ability to conduct further terrorist attacks against the US and our allies, then it would be something worth strongly considering. That would have seemed like a no brainer 6 years ago. Today it's probably the case that taking out Bin Laden wouldn't stop Al Qaeda and its clones and wannabes from carrying out operations in the US, UK, etc."
You want a coup in Pakistan? Then do something like this. I hope you like loose nukes or nukes in the hands of Islamists.
"This is right. Of course, Matthew seems oblivious to the fact that it contradicts every Left-wing complaint that "we haven't gotten Osama yet". I thoroughly expect Matthew to reply, next time he sees some Democrat complain that Bush isn't focusing on getting al Qaeda in Pakistan, that we ought to be giving the Pakistanis time to get al Qaeda."
The reason we haven't caught bin Laden is that we let him escape into Pakistan in the first place. Once he got into Pakistan, especially fragile, chaotic western Pakistan where the government is trying to maintain some semblance of order by pretty much allowing local autonomy. You want to see the end of American hegemony? Get into a land war in Pakistan. After all, Northwest Frontier Province is the easiest place in the world to buy cheap black market guns. The anti-Soviet jihad was pretty much funneled through the Western part of the country, after all.
You want a coup in Pakistan? Then do something like this. I hope you like loose nukes or nukes in the hands of Islamists.
The Pakistan hands think that an Iran-in-'79 rerun is pretty unlikely -- the population mostly likes being secular. "Apres moi, les Islamistes" is Musharraf's tool for keeping our administration on his side.
An invasion of the Waziristan region of Pakistan would be impracticable and probably counter-productive, but that doesn't mean that a more low-key U.S. role wouldn't be useful. I believe U.S. special forces were active in Pakistan, at least in the last few years, with the tacit approval of Pakistan's government (I don't know if this arrangement lasted past Pakistan's truce with the local tribes). The problem was, IIRC, that when U.S. special operators called in a Predator strike and wiped out a few Al Qaeda types (along with a family member or two), this American involvement was no longer on the Q.T., and thus became a political liability for Pakistan's government.
Anyhow, this subject would seem to warrant some of the 'nuance' lefties usually congratulate themselves for having, not false dichotomies about invading Pakistan versus doing nothing militarily about the situation in Pakistan's border regions.
Oh, but Iraq was such a terrible threat to US security that there was no nuance possible - indeed nuance was treachery, F@ck you!
Hey, I hope this doesnt turn out to be a full blown war. Pakistan has an extremely large army, this could turn into a nightmare for the US. They can't even win in IRAQ or Afganistan, how can they possibly occupy Pakistan.
If the US has the right to attack actionable targets in pakistan, then why doesnt any other country have the right to do the same in America.
American government is a disgrace, they support every terrorist group on the planet when its in their interests. Once they have achieved their goals, they turn against them.
US can never be trusted.
God help us all.
Hey, I hope this doesnt turn out to be a full blown war. Pakistan has an extremely large army, this could turn into a nightmare for the US. They can't even win in IRAQ or Afganistan, how can they possibly occupy Pakistan.
If the US has the right to attack actionable targets in pakistan, then why doesnt any other country have the right to do the same in America.
American government is a disgrace, they support every terrorist group on the planet when its in their interests. Once they have achieved their goals, they turn against them.
US can never be trusted.
God help us all.
Comments closed August 03, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
Also, Pakistan has nuclear weapons . . .
Posted by southpaw | July 20, 2007 10:58 AM