Mikki's Millions

It seems that the Sacramento Kings want to pay $18 million over three years for the services of Mikki Moore, based on his breakout season lats year. The trouble, as Dave Berri points out, is that there was no breakout -- he just played more minutes, and had essentially the same per minute production.

His scoring efficiency was up a bit from his career average, but his rebounding was down a bit. Overall, it was an above average year, but not enormously above average, and the dude's 31 so it's not as if these were flashes of promise likely to be built on in the future.

Comments

Hey he's cheaper than Etan "the Poet" Thomas. By that standard he's a steal.

Posted by bjk | July 16, 2007 12:34 PM

Hey, if Flip Murray got his, why hate on Mikki Moore?

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | July 16, 2007 12:39 PM

Nothing could be more obviously doomed before the ink was dry than the Jerome James contract.

Posted by Peter | July 16, 2007 12:39 PM

You mean nothing more doomed than the Jared Jefferies contract, right? Man that was a bust.

Posted by bjk | July 16, 2007 12:48 PM

Take your pick of the JJ's who are currently signed for the full mid-level exception.

Jerome James, age 31

PPG 1.9
RPG 1.6
APG 0.1

Jared Jeffries, age 25

PPG 4.1
RPG 4.3
APG 1.2

I'll take Jeffries any day of the week, but it's painful to think the Knicks are shelling out 120 mil for this pair (taking luxury tax into account)

Posted by Peter | July 16, 2007 12:58 PM

Even when Dave Berri gets something right, it's so blindingly obvious as to be trivial.

Posted by Pooh | July 16, 2007 1:34 PM

He doesn't even fill a need for the Kings who could really use another rebounder and a frontcourt player who can player defense, rather than a tall skinny guy who can shoot a high percentrage around the basket.

Posted by NickS | July 16, 2007 1:46 PM

"Even when Dave Berri gets something right, it's so blindingly obvious as to be trivial."

If you actually read the piece, Berri's conclusion is utterly idiotic. As is Matthew's concurrence that the fact that Moore didn't increase his career per minute averages last year somehow indicates "trouble" for the contract.

Moore's situation is identical to Steve Blake's. Both found themselves in a situation last year where a competitive team needed them to play more minutes than they'd been getting. They both proved they could perform at an average level at high minutes, and they're both receiving contracts which pay them at the fucking league average.

(That's the definition of the MLE, y'know: league average.)

Sacto now knows precisely what Moore can provide, and they think they can use it. Before seeing his performance last year, it would've been a crapshoot to think you could rely on getting decent performance from him at high minutes. Before seeing his performance last year, you couldn't really know how he'd fit in with your team.

Now, there is past performance to make the investment more reliable. Now there is film to watch to project exactly how he'll fit in with the other guys on your roster.

That knowledge of Moore's boxscores and film from last year has value, even if his per minute averages are unchanged. You can sell a new washer and dryer for more than you can sell a really big mystery box.

How fucking complicated is this stuff? I understand that Berri is an idiot, but I expect Matthew to be able to figure it out.

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And FWIW, $5.5m is indeed slightly high for Moore. NJ made an offer for Moore closer to Petey's True Value, but supply and demand is how the market sets prices. Sacto had a need. And if you have to outbid folks to fill a need, you'll have to bid slightly high sometimes. Otherwise you don't fill the need. It's only when you're bidding more than slightly high that stuff starts to become "trouble".

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And separately of the analysis, I'm happy to see Mikki finally get paid. It's a feel-good story, y'know.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 2:03 PM

"And FWIW, $5.5m is indeed slightly high for Moore. NJ made an offer for Moore closer to Petey's True Value, but supply and demand is how the market sets prices. Sacto had a need. And if you have to outbid folks to fill a need, you'll have to bid slightly high sometimes. Otherwise you don't fill the need."

Similarly, look at DeShawn. Another average player who you can throw out there for minutes. Washington is paying him $4m, which is close to Petey's True Value. If another team wanted to steal him away, they'd have to have gone slightly high to outbid the Bullets, and offered him the full $5.5m. And if he'd fill a hole you need filled, there'd have been nothing wrong with doing that.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 2:14 PM

"Now, there is past performance to make the investment more reliable."

Hey, Petey! Can I introduce you to the concept known as the "contract year"? See Blount, Mark for a recent example. And you might want to ask the Boston Celtics about how playing with Jason Kidd can make someone seem a lot better than they really are, see Scalabrine, Brian.

Mike

Posted by MBunge | July 16, 2007 2:17 PM

"Similarly, look at DeShawn. Another average player who you can throw out there for minutes. Washington is paying him $4m, which is close to Petey's True Value. If another team wanted to steal him away, they'd have to have gone slightly high to outbid the Bullets, and offered him the full $5.5m. And if he'd fill a hole you need filled, there'd have been nothing wrong with doing that."

On the other hand, you can again look at Boston's signing of Scalabrine. They gave him a 5 year at about 3 mil a year because they NEEDED a back-up power forward for Al Jefferson and wanted a guy who wouldn't complain about being a limited minutes, bench guy. Two years later, they've got two second round picks (Leon Powe and Glen "Big Baby" Davis) who are more than capable of being back-up 4s and that Scalabrine contract may be the biggest reason they don't sign a veteran back-up point guard, which might play a HUUUUUUGE role in how successful they are next season.

Mike

Posted by MBunge | July 16, 2007 2:27 PM

"And you might want to ask ... how playing with Jason Kidd can make someone seem a lot better than they really are"

This is a far more valid criticism of the contract than Berri's criticism in that it at least makes sense.

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That said, he's only being paid the league average. While NJ certainly offered a perfect platform for his modest talents last year, if Sacto has a gameplan to give him a role that will take advantage of what he has to offer, it's not a bad contract.

Playing the averages, I'd bet with Petrie's judgment.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 2:29 PM

"His scoring efficiency was up a bit from his career average"

And FWIW, that's what got him the contract. (It was up more than just "a bit", BTW.)

What changed for Moore is that he started knocking down the open jump shot for the first time in his career. This is important, because it means the opposition can't ignore him and defend his teammates 5 on 4.

A big man who can knock down the open jumper dramatically increases his value over one who can't.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 2:58 PM

Petey - What is Petey's True Value?

Posted by Flint | July 16, 2007 3:23 PM

"Petey - What is Petey's True Value?"

Too short to rebound. Too slow to defend. Can't knock down the open shot. On the court, I'm sorta like a poor man's Eric Snow. If a GM owed me a favor, I'd happily take the veteran's minimum to play cards on the plane with the guys.

In GM / league analysis / crystal ball land, however, I'm pure Jordan.

I wouldn't just pay me max, I'd alter the CBA to grandfather in a special Petey Contract that would let me earn what Jordan got in his last year with the Bulls. And like Jordan, I'd still be underpaid.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 3:30 PM

I am happy for Mikki, as he played pretty well for us last year, but, contra Petey, he's not an "average" center. He is below average. He has developed a very reliable open 18 footer, but his rebounding is terrrrrrible, he doesn't have a post game and his defense ain't great. Maybe some teams can use a guy like him (Sacto? No), but NJ really didn't need him if Krstic is healthy - Krstic is a better version of Mikki. NJ is much better off signing Magloire for $4 million for 1 year.

Posted by Al | July 16, 2007 4:13 PM

"In GM / league analysis / crystal ball land, however, I'm pure Jordan. "

So you were behind drafting Kwame Brown #1 and building a team around a washed up 36 year old SG who's only remaining move was a post-up turn-around fade away?

Posted by Sigh | July 16, 2007 4:20 PM

"NJ is much better off signing Magloire for $4 million for 1 year."

Maybe. Jamal certainly is a more talented player. But I'd guess the Nets would have preferred Moore to have taken their offer. Stability counts, and Moore was producing with that roster.

"He is below average"

Not last year. He was an average defender, and he didn't hurt them on the offensive end with the way he was knocking down the shot and spreading the defense.

In +/- terms, Mikki was -1. And the team as a whole's +/- was also -1.

In other words...

He didn't hurt them. He didn't help them. And he did that all that for an average team playing hefty minutes. That's the very definition of a player's year at the league average, not a player's year below the league average.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 4:27 PM

"So you were behind drafting Kwame Brown #1 and building a team around a washed up 36 year old SG who's only remaining move was a post-up turn-around fade away?"

In GM / league analysis / crystal ball land, I'm pure Jordan as he was on the court.

On the court, however, I'm pure Billy King as he is in the executive suite.

Have we muddled it enough yet?

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 4:31 PM

I knew what you meant. Just had to say it.....

;)

Posted by Sigh | July 16, 2007 4:42 PM

Also, what does Sacto play? Do they play a lot of pick and pop? I can't imagine that too many teams blitz the pick on Sacto like they did when Mikki set a pick for VC - because VC was good for at least a couple of assists per game where Mikki dove to the rim when the opposition blitzed the pick, Vince found him, and Mikki had a wide open dunk.

As far as plus-minus goes, the stat doesn't overly impress me. If you go by that, Jason Collins (he of the 3.4 PPG) was the second best Net.

Posted by Al | July 16, 2007 4:45 PM

"Also, what does Sacto play?"

I haven't thought much about Sacto, since their roster has been through so many near trades already.

But if they need minutes for him, then he plays average defense on one end, and hangs out by the lane to either keep the defense from leaving him since he can knock down the shot, or to get left open to knock down a hi percentage shot, then the Kings will be getting just what they appear to want.

Who knows what Sacto is going to look like, so who knows if it'll work. I assume Petrie has a masterplan that isn't idiotic.

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 4:53 PM

"As far as plus-minus goes, the stat doesn't overly impress me. If you go by that, Jason Collins (he of the 3.4 PPG) was the second best Net."

Say, whaaaaaaat?

By my stats, Collins had the third worst +/- of anyone on the team, and the very worst +/- of anyone playing major minutes.

The second best Net in +/- was Kidd, who ran below Carter in first. I'd link to the accurate numbers, but Matthew won't let me post links, and I think he should.

Or as Joe Strummer put it:

Matthew won't let me post links and we think he should
Matthew won't let me post links and you know that it ain't no good
Matthew won't let me post links for his hamburger Momma
Matthew won't let me post links gonna be a napalm star

Posted by Petey | July 16, 2007 5:02 PM

I get my plus-minus at 82games.com. Howboutchoo?

Posted by Al | July 16, 2007 5:44 PM

I find 82games.com site impossible to navigate. I know they did a feature a while ago on adjusted plus/minus. (basically a statistical regression to remove the effects of any given teammate from your time on the floor) and also some smoothing by finding correlated statistics and using them to create a player ranking which they add in to help reduce noise and remove outliers. But I can't find it now. Does anyone have the link to that? Do they publish those stats on a regular basis?

Posted by mpowell | July 16, 2007 6:20 PM

Most recent adjusted +/- number here.

Posted by NickS | July 16, 2007 7:01 PM

There is also current adjusted +/- available at basketballvalue.com

Interestingly enough MikKi Moore rates as the best Net by their numbers.

I have to admit that I'm somewhat prejudiced against Mikki Moore as a player (he seems like a great person) because I was really excited when seattle signed him two years go, based on his play for the Clippers in limited minutes, and then he dissapointed in Seattle. On a young team that needed a veteran big man, he never found his niche.

Posted by NickS | July 16, 2007 7:06 PM

Reading a little more carefully, it looks like they don't have adjusted +/- for 06-07 yet, and the rankings linked above are for the playoffs.

Here are their rankings for NJN during the regular season

Posted by NickS | July 16, 2007 7:10 PM

"I get my plus-minus at 82games.com. Howboutchoo?"

Mea Culpa.

I was looking at the wrong column in the table. Stupid mistake on my part. Collins does indeed have a good +/-.

Posted by Petey | July 17, 2007 1:20 AM