« Post-Jewish Poland | Main | Health and Cigarette Taxes » Mitt's Money14 Jul 2007 10:58 am
Marc Ambinder notes Mitt Romney's decision to release some financial information in the form of a Friday dump. In particular, "now we know why ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney wrote himself a 'nightmare' $5M check at the end of the second quarter: he spent more than five million more than he raised. Put together, Romney's burn through about 99% of his receipts." Good news for Fred Thompson? Victory NH photo used under a Creative Commons license Comments (19)
These Republican candidates don't seem so good at balancing their checkbooks. 
what in heaven's name is he spending it on? PS. Petey, i'm not sure assuming that you understand the mind of the republican primary voter is such a good bet (not just for you but for anyone who isn't part of the authoritarian cult that constitutes contemporary republicanism).
Aparently Mitt has about $500m of his own cash, so he can top up by $5m a quarter without too much trouble. It's only for another six months.
"what in heaven's name is he spending it on?" TV, staff, and winning straw polls. "Petey, i'm not sure assuming that you understand the mind of the republican primary voter is such a good bet" I indeed have lower confidence in my ability to correctly forecast the dynamics of GOP Presidential primary races than of Dem Presidential primary races, but it's still just politics. And in particular, I don't understand the fine details of the GOP's method of allocating delegates. The presence of winner-take-all primaries make a plurality candidate like Giuliani more likely on the Republican side than he would be on the Democratic side, but again, I don't know the fine details. But at the end of the day, it's just Presidential primary politics. I may understand DailyKos better than I understand Little Green Footballs, but the forces leading to a Thompson or McCain nomination still seem pretty damn compelling to me.
Petey, you don't think the Fred-as-pro-choice-lobbyist is a stake in the heart of Thomson's chances?
Er, ThomPson is the pro-choice lobbyist of course.
Petey, I'm with you on Thompson being a serious player, but McCain? Given the staff turmoil, horrible fund-raising numbers, and lousy polling numbers, what are the factors you're seeing that allow The Straight Tal— uh, Pander Express to remain in serious contention for the nomination? While I follow the campaigns from a generic horse race standpoint, I'm far from intimately knowledgeable about the GOP nominating process, so maybe your reasoning lies there.
Otto: Would that the potential GOP nominees were Thompson and Thomson. (Or Dupont et Dupond)
McCain today = Kerry four years ago The obvious choice on the way in, humbled by some serious blunders with the base, written off by a media that loves a loser, but still holds enough institutional support that a sudden comeback shouldn't surprise anyone. Also, McCain will lose a relatively close general election.
"Petey, you don't think the Fred-as-pro-choice-lobbyist is a stake in the heart of Thomson's chances?" Likely not. It's only a problem is the GOP thinks it's a problem. And I fully assume they'll give him a pass. Similarly, I don't think the current McCain woes are a stake in the heart of his chances. I've said it before and I'll say it again: McCain '07 = Kerry '03. McCain's not inevitable, but don't underestimate his strengths come voting time. All that said, this is a weird cycle for the GOP. Guys like Giuliani and Romney who would be utterly unnominatable in a normal cycle do have some kind of real outside shot this cycle. One can definitely imagine scenarios where both Thompson and McCain both don't seem viable come January, and if that comes to pass, someone's going to have to win.
Curses on you DivGuy for hitting the Kerry comparison before I could get to it. That was simply rude.
Kerry could - like Mitt - write himself checks of course. But McCain is not out and he's the closest to being a serious mainstream conservative politician of the main runners.
"Kerry could - like Mitt - write himself checks of course." I believe the even more apropos comparison is that McCain - like Kerry - can write himself checks using his wife's money, but will wait until the last moment to do so.
You are right that it's pretty wierd that a governor of Massachusetts and a mayor of New York are frontrunners in the GOP presidential primary. You'd think there would be clutch of eminent two-term US Senators or Governors from Southern states who would be rolling the dice, given the weakness of the field. It's bizarre that the plain-Jane mainstream conservative new entrant is a lazy actor with no political achievements. Could you see Thompson as mayor of New York or even running the Salt Lake City olympics? He wouldn't last six months.
Ah, I'd forgotten McCain's fortunate marriage. http://oldatlanticlighthouse.wordpress.com/tag/comprehensive-immigration-reform-s-2611/
petey, your final sentence of your noon posting is my point: someone has to win, but i'm not sure why you're so sure that someone has to be either thompson or mccain, and you concede the point with your noon posting. (i certainly have no idea how to understand the internal dynamics of an authoritarian cult, but i think that gingrich has a good a shot as any of these people once none of them proves a ball of fire.) as for what has romney spent his money on, yes, those are the categories, but still: it's an enormous amount of money to have spent. staff can't possibly have run up that much of a cost in a quarter, so that leaves TV, which seems incomprehensible to me....
FOr those of us who think that presidential campaigning has become ridiculously long, this is the silver lining. Many candidates, even zillionaire ibankers with strong sectarian support, cannot raise enough money to be viable for 20+ months. I would not be surprised if after Novermber 2008 we do not hear anything about running for President until July or August 2011.
so... why exactly couldn't Romney win? doesn't seem obvious to me. he's certainly not going to run out of cash.
Comments closed July 28, 2007. |
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Heads in the Sand
"Good news for Fred Thompson?"
Considering that Mitt is even less nominatable than Rudy, I'm not sure it's much of an issue for Thompson.
We continue to be in Thompson - McCain race, even though no one seems particularly aware of it.
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FWIW, I think Mitt's high burn rate is smart. It'll create problems for him down the road, but it beats the alternatives for him.
Posted by Petey | July 14, 2007 11:07 AM