Nervous in Boston

I promise that my initial intention in setting out to do some research for this post was to cast a little doubt on the widespread-on-ESPN.com assumption that Ray Allen's career is about to head off a cliff. That led me to Basketball-Reference.com which judges Allen's career thus far to be substantially more similar to Mitch Richmond's than to anyone else.

Unfortunately, between the 97-98 season (when he was 32) and the 98-99 season (when he was 33), Richmond experienced a sudden and dramatic decline in playing ability, transforming overnight from a star-quality player to a decided state of averageness.

Photo by Flickr user Skidrd used under a Creative Commons license

Comments

Richmond was a heavier player, which means more knee problems with age. And he was much less of a shooter than Allen, IIRC.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | July 7, 2007 1:43 PM

Right - I bet Richmond had about 20 lbs on Allen. Also, it's a huge stretch to say Richmond became an average player during the 98-99 season - he led the 'zards in about 20 ppg, just a drop under the previous year.

Posted by berger | July 7, 2007 1:56 PM

I've been confused by MLB bidness.
I've been confused by MBA bidness.
Now I see that the forward that struck for Italy, in the Copa, to defeat France (Fabio Grosso, the recipient of the Golden Boot, has been let go by Inter Milan to join Lyon.
WTF
Where the heck is nationalism when you would expect it?

Posted by Poicephalus | July 7, 2007 2:47 PM

I don't know why those numbers should make Boston nervous. Even if Allen follows that pattern exactly, he should still be a very good player next season, a decent one after that, and then he's a huge expiring contract and it really doesn't matter how he plays.

Mike

Posted by MBunge | July 7, 2007 4:38 PM

Mitch Richmond? This is what happens when you rely too much on statistical models to compare players. Reggie Miller strikes me as a much better comparison to Allen in terms of playing style.

Posted by Col Bat Guano | July 7, 2007 6:00 PM

Something else happened to Mitch between those two seasons.

Might be worth taking into account.

Posted by Kurt Montandon | July 7, 2007 8:21 PM

as a long time (though more recently a long suffering) c's fan, i'd much rather impeach danny ainge than bush or cheney. this deal is another in a long line of worthless trades from a guy who has absolutely zero clue what he's doing.

Posted by passing thru | July 8, 2007 5:49 AM

Danny Ainge should go back to selling hats. Or make another go at a baseball career.

Posted by Sam | July 8, 2007 7:42 AM

"as a long time (though more recently a long suffering) c's fan, i'd much rather impeach danny ainge than bush or cheney. this deal is another in a long line of worthless trades from a guy who has absolutely zero clue what he's doing."

Considering that the alternative to this trade was dealing Paul Pierce, who had made it explicit that he was going to demand a trade, it seems a reasonable deal to me.

Posted by Petey | July 8, 2007 11:07 AM

Considering that the alternative to this trade was dealing Paul Pierce, who had made it explicit that he was going to demand a trade, it seems a reasonable deal to me.

Me too. I mean, look, I'm not as sold on Al Jefferson as many other people. But it seems to me i you get a legitimate All-Star caliber player-- and Ray Allen is-- and get rid of Wally and his contract, without giving up your most coveted young asset, you take it. And while this was a very stocked draft, the risk/reward of the number 5 pick seems to be a very different animal than the risk/reward of the 1 or 2. Plus, if he's playing at just an above average level in two years, with his contract and his shooting he becomes a very valuable trade asset. Danny Ainge could have done a lot worse.

Posted by Freddie | July 8, 2007 11:42 AM

Well, I think the trade is retarded -- seriously, think ahead 5 years. You think the Cs will be happy with this deal then? And it's not like they're going to be winning titles in the meantime -- but the first two comments are right, Mitch Richmond isn't a very good model for Ray Allen. Their numbers might be similar, but their games aren't. Richmond was a big bruiser who mostly scored taking it to the hole, until he got old and became more of a jumpshooter. Allen has a pure stroke, and that's not going away with age. That said, he's still going to decline from here on out. Right now, he's a rich man's Reggie Miller -- he shoots it almost as well and he can do a lot more with the ball in his hands. But in a couple years I could easily see him as a poor man's Reggie Miller. Since he's more athletic and can do things off the dribble, he hasn't learned Reggie's mastery as getting open shots. And he's a couple inches shorter.

I'd be willing to bet that Allen's a better color guy than Reggie Miller, though.

Back to the Celtics: If Paul Pierce demanded a trade, then they should have traded him. If they kept the #5 pick and took Green or Yi or somebody, they're not making the playoffs for another couple of years, with or without Paul Pierce. Trade Pierce for some good young players, get back in the lottery next year, and get ready to face the Blazers in the 2011 Finals. Of course, you'd have to fire Danny Ainge, so there's no downside at all.

Posted by too many steves | July 8, 2007 9:39 PM

This is not a bad trade by any means. Cs fans, as always, overestimate their assets:

#5 pick is not a sure thing to become a star player, by no means.
Wally has negative value in any trade, becuase of his contract.
Ray-Ray, when healthy is a top-three SG in the league. They got him for basically nothing. If he stays healthy, this is one helluva deal. There is a risk that he won't, but there is risk with T-Mac, too. Would the Cs be able to get T-Mac for the #5 pick? You don't get an All-Star and dump a bad contract for a #5 pick if there were no issues whatsoever.

Posted by Krassen | July 9, 2007 2:52 AM

Considering that the alternative to this trade was dealing Paul Pierce, who had made it explicit that he was going to demand a trade, it seems a reasonable deal to me.

of course if ainge had the remotest clue, he would have traded pierce back when he had some value. now you're stuck with him with a dirk mowitzki-like contract.

and allen is aging and can't play defense to save his life, which is what this team needs more'n anything. and he don't add many more points than west and wally did. all this deal means is that the c's might make the playoffs this year before being beaten soundly and danny ainge maybe saves his job and the job of his worthless coach.

and yeah, they dumped salary on wally, which is ok. though it's their own fault they took on that foolish contract anyhow.

red auerbach = spinning in grave.

Posted by passing thru | July 9, 2007 8:38 AM

One of the interesting things about issues like this is that I think serious fans and commentators have a different perspective than GMs and owners. Fans want to win titles. Owners want to make money. I think everyone may be overestimating the Celtic loyalty of the fan base in Boston. A team can only take so many bad years. And its been really bad lately. Unfortunately, the owner is not smart enough to just fire Ainge. But given that, he may not want to continue on the rebuilding road just now. So they pick up Allen and they become capable of making the playoffs for the next couple of years. That represents more value to the owner than you realize.

Posted by mpowell | July 9, 2007 4:09 PM