The McCain Exodus

I'd been assuming that the large-scale departures from John McCain's campaign staff were an essentially controlled phenomenon -- a combination of a purge of people McCain had lost faith in and efforts to control costs. But if it's true that "Late yesterday, McCain and aide Mark Salter telephoned several other top aides to urge them to stay put" then that's clearly not the case, and things have metastasized beyond that.

Comments

McCain is done. He's being beaten by Ron Paul in fundraising. He's been kissing Bush's ass for the last 8 years for nothing.

He must feel like a complete chump, sucking up to Bush after the filthy tricks Bush pulled on him in 2000. I'm sure he thought he'd get the nomination as a reward. Sorry John. Not gonna happen.

Posted by Njorl | July 11, 2007 9:20 AM

"I'd been assuming that the large-scale departures from John McCain's campaign staff were an essentially controlled phenomenon"

This kinda stuff is never a controlled phenomenon.

When the firestorm hits, all that matters is crawling into the fire blanket and trying to survive the moment.

Or to switch metaphors, freefall freaks everybody out.

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I continue to think the rumors of McCain's demise are oversold, but this is definitely his worst moment to date. Terry Nelson was symbolically very important.

But as always, remember Kerry. You win these things by doing well in even numbered years, not in odd numbered years.

Romney and Giuliani are close to unnominatable. Thompson is untested. He should still have a shot at the thing.

Posted by Petey | July 11, 2007 9:22 AM

So, maybe teaming up with Bush and Kennedy to push amnesty wasn't such a hot idea after all ...

Posted by Steve Sailer | July 11, 2007 10:12 AM

I believe you're wrong about Romney, Petey. As the novelty of Thompson fades (and it becomes clearer that he's not the second-coming of Reagan), I think more of the GOP base will turn to Mitt. Enough will not care about his religion or will pardon it because of his willingness to say the right things, ability to raise money, and telegenic appeal.

In order of likelihood of winning the GOP nomination, I would say:
1) Mitt
2) (Some currently unannounced candidate, though not Newt)
3) Thompson
4) Guiliani
5) Huckabee
6) McCain

Posted by Bragan | July 11, 2007 10:36 AM

"I think more of the GOP base will turn to Mitt. Enough will not care about his religion..."

The '08 GOP race is certainly atypical enough that one can imagine pretty much anything happening. But I'd still be astonished to see Romney or Giuliani be able to consolidate conservative support.

Posted by Petey | July 11, 2007 10:53 AM

The Religion Wars are heating up and the Pope just tossed a barrel of One True Church gas onto the pyre.

Vatican: Non-Catholics 'wounded' by not recognizing pope

The timing of this could not possibly come worse for Romney and to a lesser extent Giuliani. The question of "What is the One True Faith?" has been elevated and I can't help but think Southern Baptists in particular will get their backs up. Both Mormonism and Catholism make some sweeping univeralistic claims, trying to sweep all this under some ecumenical rug, on the "We are all just Christians (if you ignore the Pope and the Prophet)" might work. I just have my doubts.

For me Romney is trying to dance through a rainstorm without getting wet.

Posted by Bruce Webb | July 11, 2007 12:50 PM

"So, maybe teaming up with Bush and Kennedy to push amnesty wasn't such a hot idea after all ..."

If only McCain could get the nomination -- then all those grateful Hispanics would vote Republican because of McCain's position on immigration...

Posted by Fred | July 11, 2007 1:13 PM