The New Virginia

The Washington Post takes a look at the collapsing Republican position in Virginia -- Democratic governor, one Democratic Senator, and now 40 percent of Virginians say the next president should be a Democrat and just 33 percent want a Republican. Beyond the more obvious points, I like to think that this also does show something about the significance of governing.

When Mark Warner first ran for governor in Virginia, it was pretty clear that only a "different kind of Democrat" kind of Democrat could win in the state. But not only did Warner win, he governed in a popular manner. And while he continued to be a "different kind of Democrat," he didn't shy away from being a Democrat and playing a role in the national party. Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have very much continued in that tradition -- neither are central casting Democrats, but both have actually represented the national party on national television in State of the Union responses. And as a result, their performance in office winds up not just keeping them afloat personally, but also serves to rehabilitate the party's overall image.

Comments

One thing I find interesting as a Virginian is that while all of this information is clearly true and easily verifiable by anyone, my experience talking to most white people in Virginia is that they believe that Mark Warner was an unusually unpopular governor. I've found this to be true not only among Republicans but among Democrats as well.

It's the Reagan/Clinton effect, writ small.

APS

Posted by Ape Man | July 7, 2007 2:35 PM

Don't completely skip over the fact that the demographics of the state are changing, too. Judis & Teixeira pointed out in their Emerging Dem Majority book that the university-centered areas of northern Virginia are growing by leaps and bounds, and they're drawing in many non-GOPers. The stereotypical Southern voters still went for Sen Macaca; it was the new arrivals who went overwhelmingly Webb (you could tell, as Allen led all night -- I believe literally to the 97% percent mark -- and then the northern cities reversed the verdict with a big Webb surge).

This change has been on its way for a while: Clinton, after all, came within two points carrying VA over Dole, and even Kerry was only single-digits away. But, as with FL, what makes the state competitive for Dems is the parts of it that are NOT culturally like the rest of the south.

Posted by demtom | July 7, 2007 4:06 PM

The Republican "southern strategy" of appealling to racists, working class reactionaries and religious authoritarians, while triangulating the differences between Democratic populists and Democratic liberals, succeeded in depriving the Democrats of their old, reactionary conservative wing.

The old Republican Party, with its Episcopalian Main Street orientation, was a Party, where conservatives led reactionaries. As the reactionary base has expand, it has switched to being a Party where reactionaries lead conservatives. Reactionaries are so bad at governance, though, that that has created problems for the Republicans.

The growing strength of the Democratic Party is definitely bi-modal, but conservative Democrats are no longer Republican-lite triangulators. The Joe Liebermans are being forced out. And, the Democratic Party is becoming a Party of moderates and progressives.

After a long period in which both Parties struggled to get to 50%, there's, at least, an outside chance that the Democrats will fashion a durable majority out of Bush-hatred.

Certainly, the Democrats will be circling a long-time before they make a play for Republican reactionary voters. But, Democratic moderates may well learn how to shave the Republican votes with populist and secularist appeals.

The dominance of the Republican Party by reactionaries has made the Party unattractive to more centrist, rational and secular conservative voters and politicians. While the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has become less repulsive to the same, as racism has lost some of its purchase.

Posted by Bruce Wilder | July 7, 2007 4:17 PM

I'd agree with demtom - this is more about demographics than govewrnance, proof that expanding suburbs and exurbs around DC have recalibrated the calculus of the state, and made Virginia look less "traditionally Southern" where Democrats still have trouble. That, too, is worth considering: it means, as some have argued, that continuing to romance a notion of Dems winning the traditional South may be beside the point when even parts of the South are no longer that (you can see similar shifts around Atlanta and the Research Triangle in Charlotte, NC). No doubt Mark Warner is doing fine things; but his win was built on Northern Virginia, plus grabbing black and working class white voters around Virginia Beach, Norfolk and Suffolk (the DelMarVa peninsula, which behaves somewhat differently than the interior of the state). All of which, dare we say, is a reminder that eventually, the North wins.

Posted by weboy | July 7, 2007 7:51 PM

One small point about Mark Warner's "unusual popularity": Tim Kaine is currently matching Mark Warner's astronomical popularity in the Old Dominion. That's only going to play out nicely in this year's Off-off year elections critical to a Democratic takeover of the State Senate. Remember, 2010 is much more important in Virginia that 2008.

If Democrats have a say in redistricting (Republicans now control both the state House and Senate), it will potentially move Virginia in to the Blue column for the remainder of the 21st century. The Demographics behind this tide are fully supporting a long-term takeover of Virginia by Democrats. Only another right-wing gerrymander can stave it off for another decade.

If Democrats take back the State Senate this year, it will be the first time a southern, state legislative body has gone from Republican to Democratic control since Reconstruction, and without heavy Republican gerrymandering, Virginia will remain a Blue State throughout the 21st Century.

Posted by 2007 is more important than 2008 | July 8, 2007 10:46 AM

"The stereotypical Southern voters still went for Sen Macaca..."

Then the presidential nominee needs to stage a massive, massive event in Northern Virginia, but also set up an even bigger one in Southern Virginia. It'll show the Republicans that we are going to be competing in the entire state, not just previously hospitable areas.

Posted by Brian | July 8, 2007 12:10 PM

The Republican dominance of politics in the old Confederacy has been based on the premise that every office has to be filled by Republicans because if, God forbid, the Demoncrats were ever allowed into power, they would deliberately corrupt, demoralize and socialize the state into a mini-Soviet Union, the only school uniforms allowed would be mandatory dresses on boys, and Negroes would run rampant through respectable sitting rooms fondling white womens' precious spots.

Post-Mark Warner, the portion of voters who are gullible enough to reliably fall for this crap has dwindled until they constitute a distinct minority, even when combined with the cynical GOP elite -- and its bankrollers and assorted hangers-on -- that's been selling it to them for the last few decades.

Posted by NH Dem | July 8, 2007 2:23 PM