A Surge of Huckabees

A long, long, long ways back I took a look at the Republican field and decided that Mike Huckabee was going to win. Neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney nor Rudy Giuliani seemed like plausible Republican nominees. Huckabee, by contrast, was a pro-life conservative Protestant governor -- seemingly exactly the sort of person a committed Republican would vote for. His problem, I thought, was obviously a lack of name recognition, but he'd be a classic beneficiary of the somewhat goofy primary system. It's easy enough to become well-known in Iowa, the voters there would like him, and his strong performance in Iowa would get him press as the plain-vanilla conservative Republican candidate.

And now, following his strong performance in the Iowa Straw Poll, it seems to be happening, with Huckabee's numbers taking noticeable leaps in early primary voting. Mitt Romney's been holding the edge in most of these states (Giuliani leads national polls and the further out states with the worse-informed voters) but one can imagine a vulnerability here. If you're backing Romney on the grounds that he's the real conservative, then you realize there's a governor in the race who's not a Mormon and wasn't pro-choice until the day before yesterday, then Mighty Morphin' Mitt starts looking less appealing.

But then again, I read Jon Chait's book, The Big Con recently, so I have my doubts. Huckabee, as you can see from his recent endorsement by the Machinists Union, has sometimes dissented from conservative economic policy orthodox. He even raised taxes based on some kind of lunatic belief that the provision of public services requires revenue. And you just can't have that. Which perhaps explains why when there was a perceived need for a candidate with more solid conservative credentials than McCain, Romney, or Giuliani can muster, people went out and recruitment Fred Thompson rather than getting behind the culturally conservative southerner who was already in the race.

Comments

The Colbert bump knows no bounds.

Posted by Carlos | August 31, 2007 3:01 PM

The guy looks like Gomer Pyle. Surely, that's got to shave a few points off his poll numbers.

Posted by KingM | August 31, 2007 3:05 PM

There's no way an insurgent candidate without money or infrastructure captures the nomination of the Republican Party. Hasn't happened in living memory, ain't gonna happen.

Posted by Steve | August 31, 2007 3:08 PM

Shazzam! I would vote for that candidate!

Posted by Gomer Pyle | August 31, 2007 3:15 PM

Which perhaps explains why when there was a perceived need for a candidate with more solid conservative credentials than McCain, Romney, or Giuliani can muster, people went out and recruitment Fred Thompson rather than getting behind the culturally conservative southerner who was already in the race.

Well, they started doing that back when Huckabee was raising no money and making weird gaffes, like saying he lost all that unsightly blubber by staying in a concentration camp. I feel like if you could take the Tardis back to April or May and tell conservative activists that Huckabee was going to surge, a lot of them would have ignored Fred.

Michelle Malkin's HotAir has been a good bloggish barometer of this. They did three or four months of solid Fred-worship, then got bored, and now the comments there are far more positive about Huck.

Posted by Dave Weigel | August 31, 2007 3:17 PM

>>There's no way an insurgent candidate

I thought we were fighting them over there so we wouldn't have to fight them over here?

Posted by jim | August 31, 2007 3:18 PM

Huckabee doesn't have a shot at the nomination, but I think he does have a constituency (evangelical wingnuts who resent the hell out of the wealthy elite), and I'm hoping he gets a lot of visibility during primary season. Having him out there saying the GOP is a "wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street" is exactly what the Democrats need. Hey, he's even hinted at a third-party run if the nominee is someone like Giuliani--that would be awesome.

Posted by Tom Hilton | August 31, 2007 3:18 PM

I've long told my friends that if republicans have a brain in their collective heads, Mike Huckabee will be the next president. Not nominee, president. They tell me I'm being neurotic about America's unwillingness to elect a black man or a woman, but then I see Huckabee in action -- he's got the common touch, and his populist gestures against corporate republicans are pitch perfect -- and he's trouble.

I think for a large segment of voters who have "questions" about Clinton or Obama (i.e. lurking prejudices they don't want to admit), Huckabee won't be a less bad choice (like Romney or Rudy) but a candidate they can rally behind.

Posted by Buddha Edwards | August 31, 2007 3:21 PM

I like Huckabee. Of all the Republican candidates, he appeals to me the most. Of course, I disagree with him on practically everything, so I don't actually want him to win. What appeals to me the most is that he seems like a reasonable person would would try to meet the democrats half way. Hell, he even said some nice words about Hillary. While he is certainly very conservative, he does not appear to be very partisan. And that is why he won't get the Republican nomination. The Republicans might be able to tolerate some economic heresy, but they want to see a candidate who bashes liberals at every turn. This is why Rudi polls so well. They will tolerate all kinds of heresy from him because he makes it clear that he hates liberals. Sadly, that's all that matters.

Posted by fostert | August 31, 2007 3:26 PM

I still have a hard time seeing him getting the nomination, but if he doesn't and (as is highl likely) either Romney or Giuliani does, he's almost the perfect VP candidate for both of them. Southern, Protestant, wholesome-seeming, etc.

Posted by Ryan | August 31, 2007 3:32 PM

he seems like a reasonable person would would try to meet the democrats half way

Well (I never get tired of saying this) he was the perpetrator of one of the most gratuitous acts of wingnuttery ever, when he had convicted rapist Wayne DuMond paroled when basically the only reason for lenient treatment was that DuMond's victim had been a distant relation of Bill Clinton's. DuMond went on to rape and murder again.

It may be that, having listened to bad advice this time, Huckabee has learned his lesson, but I don't see any reason he should get a pass on this.

Posted by Matt Weiner | August 31, 2007 3:36 PM

You guys think Huckabee is the best GOP candidate like I think Kucinich is the best Dem candidate. Huckabee hits the lumpen social conservative talking points smartly just as Kucinich does with the netroots talking points. The anti-business posturing is a problem for both of them though.

Business pays nearly all the bills in this country, but businessmen are pragmatic enough to know they have to be willing to tolerate a certain level of anti-business posturing. The danger with Kucinich and Huckabee is that they might actually mean what they say. That's why they'll have a hard time raising money from the productive sector. Frankly, I thought this would be a problem for Edwards too, but apparently the folks at Fortress Investment Group aren't as concerned.

Posted by Fred | August 31, 2007 3:52 PM

he's almost the perfect VP candidate for both of them.

Bingo. He's evangelical insurance for a big-ticket Presidential candidate who otherwise has some difficulty connecting to the fundamentalists. Though he might have a chance if the primaries select the candidate, rather than the moneymen who decided that George W. Bush was going to be the one a couple of years before the election, and who would find even Huckabee's insipid populism worrisome.

If the money problems went away, he would be formidable, because he's a "compassionate conservative" that people would like to have a (root) beer with. He's an ordained Southern Baptist minister, so would have the vigorous tax-law-bending assistance of the Southern Baptist Convention. And he is an unabashed theocratic thug. Criminalizing abortion, stripping rights from gay people, continuing to gut the First Amendment's "wall of separation," using the executive branch to promote creationism, endless war in the Middle East, support for Guantanamo... he's got it all. But he's so goddamned likeable. He'll finish beating the Bill of Rights to death with a folksy smile. Bloody hell, I thought that wave of McCain love on the left a couple years back was sickening, and here we go with: "What appeals to me the most is that he seems like a reasonable person would would try to meet the democrats half way." This is a guy who pushed to have Wayne Dumond released because of unreasonably harsh punishment for the minor crime of raping a distant relative of Bill Clinton's. Check that hand he's reaching across the aisle for a poison needle. It's probably concealed in the Bible he's carrying into your kid's science class.

Posted by mds | August 31, 2007 3:53 PM

He'd make a good v.p. choice for Romney, balances him out with the various constituencies? And the Gomer Pyle factor is not a problem in the v.p. candidate. After all, Bush I won with what appeared at the time to be an Andy Hardy clone at his side.

Posted by artappraiser | August 31, 2007 3:54 PM

I don't see the Republicans picking a Southerner this time around. Got to manage the brand.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | August 31, 2007 3:54 PM

Damn, Matt. You just put a real Adams House smackdown on that poor defenseless dude from Arkansas.

True story, tho.

Posted by NCProsecutor | August 31, 2007 3:55 PM

Don't know much about Huckabee as governor, but anyone who was a Republican in Arkansas in the 1990's is probably a paranoid Clinton-hating scumbag. Not to put too fine a point on it.

Posted by Andruw | August 31, 2007 3:57 PM

I don't think Huckabee has a snowball's chance. And also, shouldn't there be some kind of rule about the same tiny town in Arkansas producing two presidents?

Posted by Rob Mac | August 31, 2007 3:58 PM

He's got a real cross to bear with his son however. Then again the press corp love him as there was a story about a cheer from them when the Iowa results were announced.

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.todaysthv.com/assetpool/images/07426155158_Huckabee_son_gun_1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php%3Faz%3Dview_all%26address%3D140x1071&h=173&w=230&sz=9&hl=en&start=2&um=1&tbnid=P6xhfoLLy4YWnM:&tbnh=81&tbnw=108&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhuckabee%2527s%2Bson%2Bgun%26svnum%3D10%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN

Posted by rapier | August 31, 2007 3:59 PM

I doubt Huckabee’s slight deviations from conservative economic orthodoxy have (or will) hurt him much; all of that is trumped by the fact that he’s southern and evangelical. His problem is more of a stature thing. He’s quite likeable, but not particularly inspiring or charismatic. He comes across as your nice uncle, not necessarily a guy who should be president.

Posted by RC | August 31, 2007 4:10 PM

"I don't see the Republicans picking a Southerner this time around. Got to manage the brand."

This comment combined with the previous post about Edward's "stealth" populism suggests an intriguing possibility: What if Edwards ends up being the Dem candidate and Romney or Giuliani ends up being the GOP candidate. Is it possible that a non-trivial number of "low-information" Dems would be confused enough by the white guy with the Deep South drawl to vote for the white guy from New York or Massachusetts instead?

Posted by Fred | August 31, 2007 4:22 PM

I don't know how reasonable Huckabee is, after all, he just signed Grover Norquist's "Pledge"

http://www.atr.org/content/html/2007/march/030207pr-huckabeesignspledge.html

Posted by Dave | August 31, 2007 4:24 PM

Huckabee is likeable and has the common touch. So did Bob Dole.
It would be a mistake for Reps to nominate him.

He'd lose like Dole did because "he just isn't right".

My guess is the Coming of Fred will fizzle, Giuliani's NYC baggage and messy family life will cost him, and he appears to be on the wrong side of the immigration biz for conservatives and independents. McCain's dead meat. Leaving Romney.

But Huckabee would be a good Romney VP. Or HEW secretary, if Romney went with a foreign policy guru.

Looks like Hillary just lost Mark Warner as a VP choice with John Warner announcing retirement from his Senate seat.

Evan Bayh beckons.

And I think 8 years out, America may have its first minority President - and that person will not be black but Hispanic or Indian-American (Bobby Jindal).

Posted by Chris Ford | August 31, 2007 4:26 PM

Huckabee would indeed make a great candidate for the Democrats, seeing as he encouraged Mexico to build a consulate in his state. For those not familiar with this issue (like MattY), they use their outposts to profit from their citizens who come here illegally. In fact, since it opened earlier this year their consul has taken steps to help them in their goals. To the Democratic leadership encouraging massive illegal activity isn't a problem, but to everyone else it just might be.

Posted by TLB | August 31, 2007 4:28 PM

Business pays nearly all the bills in this country, but businessmen are pragmatic enough to know they have to be willing to tolerate a certain level of anti-business posturing. The danger with Kucinich and Huckabee is that they might actually mean what they say. That's why they'll have a hard time raising money from the productive sector.

This is pretty accurate, although I have to think there's a much higher tolerance for anti-corporate talk coming from Republicans, who are more unlikely to actually do something along those lines. I mean, did Arkansas become an appreciably worse place to do business on Huckabee's watch?

Posted by Steve | August 31, 2007 4:32 PM

Not vocal enough in his support for Iraq. Not eager enough to attack and demonize liberals and Democrats. Too reflective and thoughtful. Too consistent in his values. Way too liberal on taxes.

Bottom line: Huckabee does not appeal to the Limbaugh/Hannity wing of the party, which demands hard partisanship for the sake of hard partisanship. They want their candidates to snear at Democrats, because they believe Democrats are cowards and Marxists and traitors. Moreover, they want this hatred reflected in their candidates - hence Rudy and Mitt's miraculous transformation from relatively moderate to frothing, liberal-hating wingnuts.

The things that make Huckabee seem reasonable and somewhat sane are the same thing that disqualify him from winning over Republican primary voters.

Posted by owenz | August 31, 2007 4:32 PM

I concur with Chris Ford that Romney will be the GOP nominee and that his VP candidate will probably be someone with military/foreign policy experience. Duncan Hunter would be an interesting choice for a few reasons: geographic diversity, credibility on immigration, socially conservative bona fides, military experience, son in the military, etc.

Posted by Fred | August 31, 2007 4:35 PM

Funny how Fred's notion of business and the "productive sector" seems to exclude the majority of those doing the actual work.

Posted by novakant | August 31, 2007 5:22 PM

Huckabee, as you can see from his recent endorsement by the Machinists Union, has sometimes dissented from conservative economic policy orthodox. He even raised taxes based on some kind of lunatic belief that the provision of public services requires revenue. And you just can't have that.

What's to say this can't be hidden behind the usual wave of purposeful ambiguity, obfuscation and deflection that every candidate uses to address his negatives? If Rudy Giuliani can be taken seriously as a candidate for Kansas conservatives, Huckabee can beat the rap for this. I find it almost quaint to think that a candidates actual views and record has some impact on a political campaign.

Posted by Freddie | August 31, 2007 5:36 PM

What's funny is that the party that deified Ronald Reagan can't seem to get excited about the candidate who is clearly the closest thing to Reagan they've seen in 20 years.

Mike

Posted by MBunge | August 31, 2007 6:02 PM

The same things that make us look at Huckabee and think "Wow, not a total douche" are the same things that disqualify him from getting the nod, and may even hurt his VP chances. He may shore up a Mitt or Rudy candidacy with southern, evangelical bonafides, but if isn't willing to take the nasty partisan "Democrats are Marxists who hate America and like to have sex with Terrorists" potshots, the base is gonna holler. I doubt the Republicans want a Joe Lieberman-esque VP playing kissy kissy with the Dem's nominee. My guess is that they'd go for a Limbaugh/Malkin/Hannity certified rhetorical thug, so that their nominee can tack to the center.

Posted by TheF79 | August 31, 2007 6:40 PM

"The same things that make us look at Huckabee and think "Wow, not a total douche" are the same things that disqualify him from getting the nod, and may even hurt his VP chances."

I haven't checked the archives of the Arkansas newspapers, but I would bet that Gov. Huckabee has, and given the opportunity to be VP, will be, um, a total douche.

He is a Republican.

Posted by Andruw | August 31, 2007 9:28 PM

Check out the Arkansas Times blog archives. Plenty of douchebaggery on Huckabee's part to go around.

Furthermore, my parents are Arkansas fundagelicals who love Dobson and hate the Clenis, and they aren't fond of Huckabee, precisely because even with the doucheness, he was too willing to be bipartisan at times with the Democratic legislature and I don't think he's ever tended toward the "Democrats hate America" rhetoric. I don't think it would keep them away from the polls in the general election (something they say that would happen if Giuliani or Romney get the nomination), but they're all for Thompson at this point.

Posted by Ap Stacy | September 1, 2007 12:25 AM

The "Fair Tax" scam is part of his platform. He's a dishonest pandering fake.

Posted by david | September 1, 2007 8:03 AM

Please, no more southerners for president for a few decades.

Posted by PSP | September 1, 2007 11:20 AM