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Blinded With (Political) Science

13 Aug 2007 09:02 am

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Jane Hamsher wonders if Karl Rove's pending resignation mightn't have been prompted by one of several legal investigations that seem to have been lingering in his neighborhood for some time now. Maybe it was thought important to get Rove out of the West Wing before the cops come? And perhaps so. But perhaps the president just finished reading Josh Green's Rove takedown in The Atlantic and came to the conclusion that the Architect wasn't that smart after all.

At any rate, you need to subscribe to The Atlantic to read the story and you really should. I will, however, note that what I found most fascinating about it was Josh's evidence that Rove's talk of masterminding an electoral realignment wasn't just bluster, but played an actual causal role in his thinking about the administration's political and policy choices. Maybe, then, Rove will be able to take advantage of his new, more relaxed schedule, to sit down and digest David Mayhew's Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre which argues convincingly that so-called realignments are a product of statistical naiveté and the human penchant for hyperactive pattern detection rather than a real phenomenon of American politics.

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Comments (25)

I think it's more likely that Rove has decided to start playing a role in the Republican primaries, either with someone's campaign or as an independent actor.

Anyone can see that 2008 and 2010 don't look good for Republicans. Besides, once Ohio was embroiled in a Republoican scandal, they were in deep do.

Yeah, it's a good story.

I'm with Joe Klein's conscience. I think he's going to lay low for a bit given the state of play in the near future. He's probably hoping that, as with Newt Gingrich, his legend grows among conservatives in the face of all reason, decency, and experience.

I got my paper Atlantic Monthly last Thurday and read the mentioned article with great relish. While I was somewhat disappointed that it contained little new information, I think it still performs an important service in collecting various narrative threads regarding "Bush's brian" and weaving them all together into one. And surprisingly, as much as I think of Rove as the spawn of demons, the article is interesting and well-written.

Note: You don't really think that Bush reads AM, do you? I would think that People magazine is more his speed. Or maybe TV Guide; I'll be he has trouble with the crossword puzzle, though.

I was going to make the same suggestion m already made: he is about to go to work for some Republican candidate.

Face it, what's in it for Karl any longer at the White House? Bush isn't up for re-election and has no apparent dog in the GOP primary fight. Bush will have no affirmative legislative agenda for the remainder of his term. I'm sure Rove couldn't give a shit about trying to salvage anything out of Bush's reputation -- Rove is about power. So what's there to do for Rove?

"Bush's brian"

Do tell! Although I imagine a manly-man like Bush would be more attracted to a "Chad" or even a "Tex."

Hey Matt,

Publius at Obsidian Wings notes (http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2007/08/around-the-horn.html) that both the Rove and Gerson articles are available, in their entirety, through the Politico's website.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0807/Todays_assignment.html

Not sure how they managed that; however, the links do work.

Emes

came to the conclusion that the Architect wasn't that smart after all.

This refrain kills me like Norv. George W. Bush is [technically] the President of the United States of America. Bush legitimately received more than 15% of the popular vote. Both facts make The Architect a genius. I mean, have you ever heard Bush speak? The guy's a fucking moron.

Though I should note that people SHOULD still subscribe to the The Atlantic and reward them for the great work being produced by their writers (including, of course their top notch team of bloggers).

Emes

Clearly there is going to be a conflict from now through 2012 between Rove and George HW Bush's people. I used to think that HW would in the end prevail, but now I am not so sure. If Rove can attach himself to a leading Repub Presidental Candidate or solid Senate candidate and use that as a platform to continue manipulating the Republican Party we may be in for some serious trouble.

Cranky

Rove knew that FISA revision would weaken the knees of the Blue Lap Dog Dems. He got a Democratic Congress to eviscerate the Fourth Amendment. He can now take time out and dodge subpoenas and investigations.

As for his future, the line is that he's off to Florida. And there we were thinking that Jeb! was the smart one.

Now that I am actually THINKING.....I realize that I should not have provided the link (provided by the Politico) to the complete Rove and Gerson articles.

I just figured that if the Politico was making them public, they must have worked out some sort of deal with The Atlantic to do so.

Anyhow, I'm now thinking this was probably not the case, and that Matt would have let everyone konw about the link if he thought it was appropriate.

Sorry Matt.

I actually had not subscribed to The Atlantic before this morning.

However, I just now did.

Again, my sincerest apologies.

Emes

Man. Emes, did you really subscribe to The Atlantic because of your guilt at posting that link? If so, I'm impressed. Anyway don't worry about it. If you just Google the title of the piece, you'll see that's not the only place to find it.

As for me, I've always wondered why conservatives trust a guy named Karl. With a K!

My Atlantic subscription is expiring soon and I'll probably renew. Still, Matt, I'd appreciate it of you'd put a word in to the powers-that-be that they should either return to publishing pieces actually denominated as fiction or, failing that, make the annual fiction issue part of the subscription.

I never got the impression that Rove was all that smart. I always thought he just managed to be dirtier than anyone else. It's like being in a fight when you're a kid and getting kicked in the nuts. Next time, you're ready for it, but he hits you with a bat. Next time, you're ready for the bat, but he runs you over with his car.

No matter how much he lowers the bar for acceptable behavior, he's willing to sink lower. Decent people had trouble reconciling his tactics and refused to acknowledge the "means" and just labelled the "ends" brilliance.

"I think it's more likely that Rove has decided to start playing a role in the Republican primaries, either with someone's campaign or as an independent actor."

Or, he's getting his memoirs ready to beat the inevitable rush of books by ex-Bush admin figures, which will all be variations on:
"Why the Bush Administration was such a Clusterf**k and how it was All Because they didn't listen to my Sage Advice, instead preferring the foolish counsel of [fill in scapegoat's name here]".

Gotta get that sucker ready to hit the streets by January 21st, 2009. Ghost writers for Regnery don't just manage themselves, y'know.

and came to the conclusion that the Architect wasn't that smart after all.

Damn right. Rove blew the 2000 election and was saved only because some Palm Beach election official designed an idiotic ballot. Rove only beat a completely incompetent opponent in 2004 by 3 points, and we had to sweat that win out too. And Rove got completely demolished in 2006. As far as I can tell, he's only had one good election - 2002, and he probably should have won a lot more seats in that election than he did. I would say that Rove is the most overrated political consultant in the history of political consulting if I didn't know that Bob Shrum somehow got jobs advising seven Presidential candidates.

Great....Rove and Delay BOTH roaming under the radar.

Yuck.

I never got the impression that Rove was all that smart. I always thought he just managed to be dirtier than anyone else. It's like being in a fight when you're a kid and getting kicked in the nuts. Next time, you're ready for it, but he hits you with a bat. Next time, you're ready for the bat, but he runs you over with his car.

No matter how much he lowers the bar for acceptable behavior, he's willing to sink lower. Decent people had trouble reconciling his tactics and refused to acknowledge the "means" and just labelled the "ends" brilliance.


Posted by Njorl | August 13, 2007 10:42 AM

This is possibly the most illuminating description of Rove's effect on American politics that I've ever seen, and I hope that this idea grows into a meme damn quick, so future tactics can be recognized as such.

I think the most obvious explanation for Rove's departure is exactly what he says. He planned to leave immediately after the 2006 elections with a final victory under his belt and no more elections to engineer for Bush. But with the unexpected defeat, he had to postpone his departure else it looked like he was forced to resign in shame. He's leaving simply because his work for Bush -- winning him elections -- is done. It would have occurred a little earlier except for the 2006 results.

On a somewhat off-topic note, is there anyway I can subscribe to the Atlantic and get digital access, but without the dead-tree version showing up and cluttering my house?

Thanks, Njorl, for a great distillation of the Rove Mystique. Succinct, accurate, and chilling.

As for you, MY, how very Rovian of you to package your Atlantic subscription shillery in such a topical and thought-provoking post. You have learned much from the master! Aaa-ooooooo!

Is Ambinder's name still up there? Yep. Then forget that subscription.


Comments closed August 27, 2007.

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