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Cycles of Vengeance

01 Aug 2007 11:00 am

Back in February of 2004, Frank Foer did a great piece for TNR looking at the few members of the foreign policy establishment who had the temerity to work with Howard Dean and then the wave of retribution launched against them when he lost:

By the time Dean began assembling his national security team, though, most of the Democratic foreign policy establishment--which is now heavily clustered at the Brookings Institution--was already quietly committed to the Kerry, Wesley Clark, and John Edwards campaigns (in the case of some wonks, all three at once). Without the party's A-list names, the Dean campaign began searching for advisers in less glamorous quarters. For their foreign policy rollout, they signed up former Secretary of State Warren Christopher and former national security adviser Tony Lake--veterans of Clinton's first term. But, in Democratic circles, Clinton's first term is widely considered a low point in the party's foreign policy, and, in any case, Christopher and Lake weren't substantive advisers. So, last fall, Dean recruited two mid-level Clintonites from Brookings for his day-to-day needs, former Director of European Affairs at the National Security Council Ivo Daalder and former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Susan Rice.

For many in the Democratic foreign policy establishment, Dean was seen as dangerous. They worried that his strident opposition to the Iraq war would revive old clichés about the party's pacifism and that his claim that Saddam Hussein's capture did nothing to enhance U.S. security would prove fodder for countless GOP ads. No one was more concerned on this score than Daalder's Brookings colleague and occasional co-author, Michael O'Hanlon, who penned scathing op-eds in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Times attacking Dean. O'Hanlon, who advises several of the candidates--including Kerry--told me, "More Democrats should have recognized [Dean's] danger and spoken out against him." Within Brookings, O'Hanlon's pieces were seen as a direct assault on Daalder and Rice and a break with the institution's genteel mores. One Brookings fellow describes them as "just bizarre. Forgive me, but that was personal, not professional." Others at the think tank reported witnessing loud, uncomfortable hallway arguments between Daalder and O'Hanlon over Dean.

At the time, Dean was still riding high, and--O'Hanlon's attacks notwithstanding--so were Daalder and Rice. But now that Dean is done, Rice and especially Daalder may find their career prospects also dimmed. When I spoke with the foreign policy gurus who would likely stock a Democratic administration, they seemed to regard the Dean campaign as a debilitating black mark on one's resumé. It doesn't help Daalder that he took an aggressive posture during Dean's glory days. Instead of privately conceding his candidate's foreign policy shortcomings, Daalder defended him to the hilt. "After Dean delivered the line about Saddam's capture, Ivo was quite animated in defending that sentence," says one Brookings fellow. And, as a former Clinton administration official told me, "If you're a policy adviser, you exist to stop lines like that from being delivered. And, if it gets delivered over your objections, you have an obligation to fall on your sword. This whole campaign causes me to question [Daalder's and Rice's] judgment."

That's something people who realize that Dean was right about the war and right about Saddam's capture might want to keep in mind. This year, clearly, you don't have distinctions that are as clear cut as the ones prompted by the 2004 primary but you still do have echoes of this same clash inside the establishment.

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Comments (23)

"Instead of privately conceding his candidate's foreign policy shortcomings, Daalder defended him to the hilt. "

Shortcomings like, um, being right?

When I spoke with the foreign policy gurus who would likely stock a Democratic administration, they seemed to regard the Dean campaign as a debilitating black mark on one's resumé.

Remind me, again, why people on the Daadler side can't get the same done to "liberal hawks"?

That's interesting - at least two of Dean's former advisers (Rice and Lake) are now key advisers to the Obama campaign. Food for thought.

I'm trying, eh, SCMT. Hence the O'Hanlon primary.

I take back everything bad I've ever said about Daalder.

Very timely reminder of that history, Matt.

The tension in the foreign policy establishment over politics in war and peace and the Democratic party continues today. Candidates are hedging their bets and there is no Howard Dean out there anymore talking sense from a high profile position. Any Democrat likely to be nominated in 2008 (barring a shocking change of heart from Mr. Gore) will be already compromised by the war-for-war's-sake insiders.

But Hillary isn't really hedging. She proclaims her administration already committed to the continuous foreign wars that will benefit insiders so much. Barely any kind of draw down in Iraq is acceptable and invading Iran is always on the table. If war and peace or empire and liberty are your top issue, you have to vote for any Republican over Hillary in 2008. That way there's another chance for your issue in 2012 instead of 2016.

Barack Obama is carefully saying little substantive. He can't be committed and still carry the peace vote and keep insider support. There's no guarantee he will repeat the wisdom of opposing the war in Iraq once his own political interests dictate war. The president is always more powerful during a war and insiders will always want one. But there's a chance of good outcomes.

John Edwards sees that his only chance to be president is to court the corners of the party that have been left behind. He is appealing to organized labor and working families. He tries to build support among rural and Southern Democrats. He is trying to win the vote of those who believe in peace and are disgusted by the war. There is a pattern here. Edwards will hunt for votes wherever the leaders of out party have frankly discarded the people who vote them into office. He is fishing where the fish are. But let's remember that he voted for the war in 2002 knowing that it could not be justified objectively for pure political opportunism. When another opportunity to take a stand in the national interest comes up, what reason is there to believe he will have changed his fundamental nature?

Whoever we nominate, don't forget the foreign policy staff and political consultants will continue to dominate party operations. Basic public choice economics tells us not to get your hopes up for starting a withdrawal from Iraq any time before January 20th, 2013.

"If you're a policy adviser, you exist to stop lines like that from being delivered."

Because God forbid a candidate should bluntly tell the truth!

That one sentence says it all about the sickness of the policy establishment.

I never recovered full respect for Kevin Drum after he waxed condescending about Dean's "tin ear" in saying that Saddam's capture didn't make us any safer.

Now we're seeing the same unwillingness to get Edwards' back in ditching the delusional, ruinous "war on terror" framework -- because nobody wants to piss off the front runner. Whose take on the question could easily have been delivered by Bush. See

http://http://www.tinyrevolution.com/mt/archives/001536.html

Re "And, if it gets delivered over your objections, you have an obligation to fall on your sword."
---------
Sigh. Policy wonks at Brookings have such cheap machismo.

In the days of the Divine Tiberius, advisors actually fell onto real swords -- in the desperate hope that their families would be spared.

Serious Analyst:
He'll probably make the right decision because hopefully he learned from his mistake. Hopefully he won't let Shrum-like jackasses talk him into something he knows is wrong this time.

A great reminder of why, on a bad day, I can talk myself into hating America.

And if you care about your country or democracy or the development of authoritarianism in the U.S. or the moral implications of hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis based on a deliberate hoax, then you exist to make sure that the kind of people who blacklist foreign policy advisers who got it completely right are never allowed to hold any position of authority ever again.

People like O'Hanlon are being exposed as completely unprincipled scum. The fact that being associated with being right is some kind of black mark means that the current Democratic foreign policy establishment needs to be flushed down the toilet with the rest of the excrement.

All they care about is being seen as tough so they can impress Republicans. If it takes hundreds of thousands of dead and/or tortured Nicaraguans, El Salvadorans, Guatemalans, Iraqis, etc., etc., these human scum are fine with that. Anything to improve their own reputations and advance their careers.

I wish there was a Hell so Michael O'Hanlon and his ilk could burn there.

For some reason, I'm reminded of all the Democrats who voted for the war simply because they didn't want to replay the scenario where they looked stupid for opposing the Gulf War, which turned out to be a total cakewalk.

It's not just that they keep doing the wrong thing, it's that they keep doing it for the wrong reasons. If they thought it over and legitimately believed the war was the right thing for America, I could respect that on some level. Instead they worry more about their political futures than about the country, and they can't even get that part right.

Hmmm. Speaking of "falling on swords",
it occurs to me that there are 3500+ families out there grieving for the death of a son. Thousands more grieving for a son or daughter crippled for life in an unnecessary war.

I wonder if the pundits at Brookings are intelligent enough to realize that --while Bush and Cheney have Secret Service protection -- they themselves do not?

Richard Perle is spending a lot of time in the South of France, from what I hear. Perhaps Fat Richard might like to read the words of Cicero to Marcellus -- and reflect on how the irony of Cicero's comments later became evident.

Michael O'Hanlon should be the subject of universal ridicule, by this point. He's a walking parody of himself.

But, something keeps him walking upright amidst our discriminating media. What is it?

Don Williams, people are also mourning daughters (and sisters, and brothers, and spouses, and friends). And, of course, there are many, many zeroes in the number of Iraqi dead. Just had to add that.

More to the point, it's depressing to read these things. One would like to think things have changed, but then I listen to NPR reporting mindlessly on what Dick Cheney said to Larry King and then a few minutes later there's Mara Liasson applying her razor-sharp analytical skills to the significance of Obama and Clinton not providing detailed Iraq exit strategies. (No mention of Edwards -- there seems to be a news blackout on him unless his haircuts and big house can be shoehorned in.) In other words, I can't hear much difference in the framing. Well at least the word "exit" has been uttered once or twice.

Valid points all, Mary.

"But now that Dean is done, Rice and especially Daalder may find their career prospects also dimmed. When I spoke with the foreign policy gurus who would likely stock a Democratic administration, they seemed to regard the Dean campaign as a debilitating black mark on one's resumé."

This is critical. The early and/or most strident opponents of the Vietnam War never regained a strong influence on foreign policy even after they were proven correct. You can interpret the positions of O'Hanlon & Pollack as necessary under the best of motives, just as Colin Powell has been so interpreted.

I have seen it said that Powell, by acquiescing to the War in Iraq, helped prevent a War in Iran and a possible war with China. Minimizing damage and retaining a place at the table can have precedence over personal integrity.

Damn. What was the name of that soldier/General who died this decade who publicly opposed both Vietnam, while he was fighting there, and Iraq, and never really had much influence or effect?

About 2 or 3 years ago Atrios linked to a Slate article specifically about this. It detailed how both pundits and politicians who had been right about Iraq were being punished by the medaisphere and Democratic party, respectively, for having been right and, if anything, their voice was weaker than during the run-up to the war. It was unfuriating to read.

I lost the link to the Slate piece and despite my best efforts I was never able to locate it again.

Re "What was the name of that soldier/General who died this decade who publicly opposed both Vietnam, while he was fighting there, and Iraq, and never really had much influence or effect?"
--------
Colonel David Hackworth. And he had plenty of influence in the places where it counted.
Just ask Chief of Naval Operations Jeremy Boorda.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hackworth

As Michael O'Hanlon's about-face demonstrates, the Democrats are in a foreign policy bind. The Democratic foreign policy establishment is only slightly less of a warmongering group than the neo-cons. Anyone who thinks that O'Hanlon and Pollack's Times article does nto represent a foreign policy consensus is kidding themselves.

Certainly, Democratic politicians have broken from that consensus. That's why O'Hanlon decided to recant. He didn't want to be frozen out of the next administration for being a prominent hawk at the wrong time.

But opposition to the war does not seem to have produced a new wave of dissident foreign policy specialists.

So, the Democrats seem stuck between their anti-war politics and their pro-war establishment.

No-one in the DC wonkosphere ever lost a job for being part of the wrongheaded collective. Plenty have lost jobs for being isolated and correct. I'd compare them to sheep, but sheep are sympathetic animals.

I lost the link to the Slate piece and despite my best efforts I was never able to locate it again.

I believe it was this Radar piece.

Is it just me, but "falling on your sword" is a singularly gruesome kind of suicide, making harakiri a stuff for wimps. Wishing it to anyone is in bad taste.

And of course, Foer has it backward. A foreign policy advisor, like any advisor, should inform a politician about merits of a position, and the politician should figure out the politics. Foer is attacking Daalder and others for purely political mistakes of their master -- who was correct on merits.

To be more insane, an ideal candidate should be bold and unscripted and just happen to agree with all conclusions of pollsters, pundits etc. and of course, all his or her clever advisers who studied for years the results of polls, opinions of the pundits etc. (and if sometimes they can read a map, or tell an Ingush from a Chechen, those skills are clearly superfluous).

About 2 or 3 years ago Atrios linked to a Slate article specifically about this. It detailed how both pundits and politicians who had been right about Iraq were being punished by the medaisphere and Democratic party,


new republic also did a piece about kerry campaign's attempt (after he won the nomination) to blackball daalder from thing tank establishment world. unreal the level of vindictiveness. the left eats its own. dem establishment don't play this level of hardball against republicans.


Comments closed August 15, 2007.

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