It looks like the Iranian nuclear program is only advancing sluggishly and that some Iranian elites are wondering if it really makes sense to continue down this path. Of course, one way to convince them to do so would be to start bombing their country. But I guess since they're "already at war with us" we have no choice, right?
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New IAEA Report
30 Aug 2007 03:32 pm
Comments (13)
Matt,
Why do you hate freedom?
Matt,
Why do you hate America?
They've been at war with us for almost three decades, so we have a lot of makeup bombing to do.
Why do you believe the IAEA? Just weeks before we invaded Iraq they said there was no evidence Saddam had an active nuclear program. We sure proved them wrong!
I seem to remember we helped support the Afgan resistance to the Soviet invasion. Did that mean we were at war with the Soviets? Did they see it that way?
Matt might want to point out, when the amen corner starts preaching about "secret intelligence" on Iran's program that the IAEA doesn't have, the electricity requirements of enrichment. Surely American satellites would pick up such huge uses of energy. I'm also sure that secret Iranian enrichment facilities would give off massive amounts of heat that would be picked up by thermographic sensors. When the hawks present this technical evidence of Iranian perfidy, I'll take them seriously.
Well, I don't what "Iranian elites" are saying, but Iran has no choice but to go nuclear, as they won't be making any money from oil in a couple decades if they don't because they'll be using the oil themselves for their energy needs.
I imagine the "elites" are concerned that going nuclear at this time is a risk of all-out war with the nuts in Washington. So they might be thinking, "Let's back off and wait for cooler heads to come to power in the US".
Unfortunately, that isn't going to work because:
1) Bush and Cheney will attack them anyway, since they want the oil for their oil company cronies. And they can't use a phony "nuclear weapons program" for their excuse, they'll use something else.
2) Israel will attack them if Bush doesn't.
3) There are no "cooler" heads - including Obama - coming to power in the US any time soon, since they all get the same campaign contributions from the same war profiteering military-industrial-security industry.
The best Iran could do would be to suspend enrichment for a while and clear up the lame questions the IAEA has about their past activities. But all that would really accomplish is to delay their program, and make them look weak to the rest of the Middle East. It might be a smart move, but it's unlikely to happen because the really smart people in Iran know it's not going to change anything anyway.
Hack - Well, I don't what "Iranian elites" are saying, but Iran has no choice but to go nuclear, as they won't be making any money from oil in a couple decades if they don't because they'll be using the oil themselves for their energy needs.
The eventual need Iran has to go to nuclear power has been perceived since the 70s. But the Islamic Republic has not put it's money into building nuke power plants - instead that oil money has gone down a rathole of Guard and mullah corruption, Chinese and Russian weapons, and economic subsidies.
The Bashar twin-nuke facility had construction suspended by the Russians for non-payment.
Instead, Iran has elected to 1st covertly, now openly try for the dual-use enrichment part of the nuclear cycle - despite such investment not being necessary, not making any investment sense because nations are willing to guarantee Iran enriched fuel.
And flipping off the IAEA and the nations under IAEA has cost Iran any development potential of the rest of it's nuke program - no parts, no training...and the pig-heads keep getting hit with other sanctions - but keep up enrichment.
Why?
They want the Bomb more than an alternate energy supply. More than establishing Pressurized Light Water reactors that don't make bomb-grade plutonium.
Since the 70s, S Korea has added 18 reactors. The Japanese, another 27. Iran, screwed up Muslim Iran, hasn't got a one, even close...
Gates did know about the $50b request in advance. yipes. This really is a rudderless ship of fools.
Will Bush order the bombing of Iran before or after his bike ride? That will be the extent of his analysis.
"not making any investment sense because nations are willing to guarantee Iran enriched fuel."
And who are they going to trust to guarantee that supply?
Russia? Russia bowed to US pressure and slowed down the construction of the Bashehr plant, taking at least two years longer than necessary.
Before that, Bushehr was started in 1974 by Siemens. It was first abandoned after the revolution by the Ayatollah Khomeini who declared it "anti-Islamic." Work was later resumed on it in the 1980's, but Siemens abandoned the project under pressure from the United States. Work was resumed by the Russian contract only in the mid to late 1990's.
Therefore Fred's comment about wasting money is incorrect. Iran has had since the revolution a limited ability to get Western organizations to assist in its nuclear energy needs due to pressure from the United States. And it only changed its policies on nuclear energy when it became clear that it had no choice given its energy needs.
The Bushehr reactor under construction by the Russians IS a light-water reactor. Russia has consistently maintained that the reactors they offer Iran are the same as that offered to North Korea by the US previously and are not capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The deal includes the requirement that spent fuel rods be returned to Russia. Russia held up finishing the project until the Iranians agreed to this.
It is interesting that despite the propaganda, the Iranians are on record ALREADY under Ayatollah Khomeini as refusing to even build a nuclear energy facility, saying it was "anti-Islamic", and that stance only changed when it became obvious to them that they had to have nuclear energy to deal with their energy needs. And the current Ayatollah has explicitly stated that nuclear weapons are against the Islamic religion.
IT'S A TRICK! And Matt, a thinking man, fell right into the iranian trap. George Bush, by contrast, a man of the gut, will not.
" Surely American satellites would pick up such huge uses of energy. I'm also sure that secret Iranian enrichment facilities would give off massive amounts of heat that would be picked up by thermographic sensors. "
Iran is not using magnetic isotope seperation. The energy efficiency of newer methods of enrichment is much better than what we did at Oak Ridge. You could do it with no observable heat signiture of telltale significance.
Comments closed September 13, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
New IKEA report?! Allright! Oh wait...
I'm sure the Administration has the real report on Iran, which says they have chemical and biological weapons they are ready to unleash on our citizens. An imminent threat, obviously.
Posted by Adam | August 30, 2007 4:46 PM