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Why Vietnam?

27 Aug 2007 12:11 pm

The Atlantic's website has a kind of review essay by Robert Kaplan about the "forgotten" Vietnam literature that provides a kind of user's guide to the revisionist accounts of the war that the president has decided to endorse. To me, the noteworthy thing about this case is how hollow it is even on its own terms. For contemporary political purposes, here's the key point:

While historians cite 1968 as a turning point because of the home front's reaction to the Tet offensive, the My Lai massacre, and the protests at the Democratic party convention in Chicago, on the ground in Vietnam, 1968 marked a different trend: William Westmoreland was replaced by Creighton Abrams, population security rather than enemy body counts became the measure of merit, "clear and hold" territory replaced the dictum of "search and destroy," and building up the South Vietnamese Army became the top priority. "There came a time when the war was won," even if the "fighting wasn't over," writes Lewis Sorley, a West Point graduate and career Army officer, in A Better War: The Unexamined Victories and Final Tragedy of America's Last Years in Vietnam (1999). By the end of 1972, Sorley goes on, one could travel almost anywhere in South Vietnam in relative security, even as American ground forces were almost gone. [...] Sorley told me he isn't sure what would have happened had Congress not cut off aid to South Vietnam at about the time the ground situation was at its most hopeful. He felt that a respectable case might be made that it would have survived.

The question naturally arises that even if one accepts all of this, what would the point have been? Propping up the South Vietnamese government was an expensive and diplomatically costly proposition. The initial strategic rational for propping up the South Vietnamese government was that preventing South Vietnam from going Communist was necessary to prevent the triumph of Communism worldwide. In retrospect, however, while "a respectable case might be made" that South Vietnam could have been saved, we know conclusively that the strategic case in favor of saving it was mistaken.

Recently, an indefinite military commitment to South Vietnam has been repackaged as some kind of humanitarian gesture, but that boat won't float. The Saigon regime was a dictatorship like the northern one, and Abrams-era US military actions like the Christmas Bombings killed thousands of people. Insofar as the point of a military activity is to accomplish something worthwhile at some kind of reasonable cost, Abrams/Kissinger/Nixon never did anything of the sort. Now, it's not Creighton Abrams' fault that there was no good reason to expend vast resources propping up the shaky South Vietnamese government indefinitely, but it's still the case that whatever tactical accomplishments the forces under his command may or may not have achieved that nothing he did actually vindicates the political agenda of indefinitely continuing the war.

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Comments (61)

The military specializes in retrospectively winning wars. This is a cross cultural thing. In the 1830s, it was proven as a fact by many an old Napoleonic general that Waterloo was a mere pimple, and Napoleon could have beaten the British. The Germans, famously, were taking territory on the East Front in 1918 - clearly winning. In fact, the ARVN famously suffered a humiliating defeat on the Plain of Jars in 1971. In 1972, Sorley is ignoring the Easter offensive, in which the NVA launched a three pronged attack that folded up the ARVN, and was held back by American and Montagnard forces. He's delusional if he thinks the ARVN was or would ever be a fighting force that could face the NVA with 'minimal' American support. But that was the consistent military position throughout the war.

My knowledge of Vietnam is admittedly not as deep as I would like, but it seems to me like we were giving a great deal of aid to that government even after the Paris Peace Accords. Perhaps we weren't sending as much money there as we were before that agreement, but then again the US Army wasn't there anymore. In any case, I believe we were still sending them a great deal of money. At the very least, people should look into these claims by the right more closely before even pretending they have some hypothetical merit. I remember I saw Mort Kondracke going off on how he gave up on the Democrats because Congress cut funding to South Vietnam, and the date HE gave for that cutoff was I believe the day before Saigon fell.

The right's feeble argument that we were militarily winning the war in 1972 is one of their more absurd arguments. If South Vietnam was doing so well in 1972, then why did they crumble so badly in 1975? North Vietnam thought their final offensive would take 2 years. Instead, it was over by the spring.

Why does anyone listen to these people anyway? The people who are telling us how we were winning in Vietnam are the same ones who were telling us how we won in Iraq in May 2003.

even if one accepts all of this...

And why exactly would we? Is there any veracity to these statements at all? Any independent confirmation?

After all, aren't we supposed to believe a market in Baghdad is just like one in Indiana?

What you says seems pretty plausible, and it's probably right. But I wonder if the humanitarian case is as weak as you make it sound. Certainly South Korea, when we defended it from invasion by the North, was a pretty questionable government. But it is certainly the case that South Korea developed in positive directions under US influence. And it certainly seems like you would much rather live in the capitalist countries of Asia rather than those who suffered under communism. This seems to be true of European countries as well.

I had always, and still do, thought that defeating the nationalist counter-insurgency would have required ten years and a couple million troops, something clearly unjustified. I have also thought that Ho Chi Minh would have been amenable to Western reforms if we had backed him rather than the French.

But if I am Nixon in 1972 or whatever, that ship has sailed. And if it truly was the case that the US could have prevented South Vietnam's fall with "aid," then that might be justified if aid means something like "advising, equipment, and money."

However, if aid means "massive bombing campaigns in North Vietnam and Cambodia, mining Haiphong harbor, and 1.5 million US soldiers on the ground" then it seems pretty obviously a bad bet.

So, you are probably right, but I suppose I want to say that if their premise is true and we could have saved South Vietnam on the cheap, then it isn't crazy to think we haven't done that. So, I guess my point is that you can't really escape the question of whether that premise is true or false.

what would the point have been?

Same point as propping up South Korea, no?

Military pornographers like Kaplan have no clue about the devastation and death the US wreaked in Southeast Asia under LBJ and then even more so under Nixon.

Sorley's book is a great book, but it is ultimately flawed because while lots of South Vietcong were killed under Abrams' strategy, there were lots of civilians included in that number and then beyond the number in the relentless and indiscriminate bombing. Also, the failure to defeat the effectiveness of the Ho Chi Minh Trail led to many, many more N Vietnamese troops inside South Vietnam by the end of 1972 than existed in 1969. The peasants continued to support the N Vietnamese troops against the foreign invader, which was the US, even though they were not quite in favor of the N Vietnamese at that point, either. This is why the US making significant cuts funding for the war was not significant, as even Nixon and Ford's advisers admitted in real time. They knew the truth, even as they let the fools and liars push their nonsense in public.

The irony lost on the revisionists is that the Vietcong, known more formally as the National Liberation Front (NLF), which included some relatively decent folks like Justice Minister Truong, had a better chance at saving the South Vietnamese institutions from domination by the North than any other single political grouping in South Vietnam. But the Phoenix program and its successors had the perverse effect of destroying the infrastrcture and killing so many people to undermine South Vietnam as a functioning entity.

The only salutary thing about the revisionists is that readers of the revisionists may now better understand Noam Chomsky's analyses from 1967-1972. Chomsky's thesis was that the US "won" in the sense of showing the third world what awaits them if they pursue independent paths of development--and that the war in Vietnam was largely a war against the civilian population of South Vietnam that had rejected consistently the government planted there through the US starting in the 1950s under Eisenhower.

Final flame:

If one reads "The Centurions" the way Kaplan wants to do, and one carefully reviews the premises lurking within Kaplan's article, his contempt for the great mass of humanity is unmistakable--and would be readily agreed with by Stalinists and Leninists, one might add. Kaplan's last sentence is a lie he tells himself after all of his militarist and elitist garbage. One wonders whether he masturbates while watching "300." Would somebody please send this jerk to Baghdad?

Flame over.

The question naturally arises that even if one accepts all of this, what would the point have been? Propping up the South Vietnamese government was an expensive and diplomatically costly proposition. The initial strategic rational for propping up the South Vietnamese government was that preventing South Vietnam from going Communist was necessary to prevent the triumph of Communism worldwide. In retrospect, however, while "a respectable case might be made" that South Vietnam could have been saved, we know conclusively that the strategic case in favor of saving it was mistaken.

Recently, an indefinite military commitment to South Vietnam has been repackaged as some kind of humanitarian gesture, but that boat won't float. The Saigon regime was a dictatorship like the northern one, and Abrams-era US military actions like the Christmas Bombings killed thousands of people. Insofar as the point of a military activity is to accomplish something worthwhile at some kind of reasonable cost, Abrams/Kissinger/Nixon never did anything of the sort. Now, it's not Creighton Abrams' fault that there was no good reason to expend vast resources propping up the shaky South Vietnamese government indefinitely, but it's still the case that whatever tactical accomplishments the forces under his command may or may not have achieved that nothing he did actually vindicates the political agenda of indefinitely continuing the war.

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You could substitute "Korea" for "South Vietnam" everywhere in the first paragraph and have it be pretty much true. Are you saying we should have bailed in Korea?

Maybe our Korean presence was justified, maybe it wasn't, but propping up South Korea after the armistice didn't involve a shooting war with large American casualties, enormous Korean casualties, and devastation to the local economy and society. It was, by and large, just money. An American soldier posted to Seoul wasn't much worse off than his comrades posted to Berlin.
There was never a Korean-style way to prop up South Vietnam for an extended spell, and there isn't such a way to prop up Iraq.

Freedman, your point about the consequence of wiping out the NLF is so excellent it has to be underlined again and again. The selection of dates by the revisionists (and of course warmongers like Kaplan) is hilarious. The end of 1972 is preferred to the beginning, since it would be a little hard to argue that Vietnam, which was undergoing a major offensive, was safe as a playground. Similarly, the offense in 1973 is ignored. And the idea that it is a nice, humanitarian gesture to substitute take and hold for search and destroy - the Nazi method, perfected in the Ukraine and employed by America's premier military minds - is also as laughable as ... say, prostate cancer. But the great thing to hold in mind is that the truly important dates in the Vietnam war are dates in which America had a choice of negotiating, turning back, surrending a failed absolutist project. 1963, 1964, 1967 - dates of reassessment, dates in which the U.S. could have stopped propping up a dictatorship and actually negotiated its way to a communist dominated by autonomous south vietnam. By destroying the NLF, the U.S. basically put itself on a path from which it could only extract itself with total victory or total defeat. Similarly, in Iraq, the U.S. did several things after the invasion - most notably, moving quickly to maximize U.S. control of Iraq instead of moving quickly to mitigate it, both by giving the British a real say so in the total running of the country and giving the Iraqis real power and early elections - which put the U.S. on the same absolutist path. Among the other things, following Chalabi's gangleader dream of revenge on the Ba'athists who had hurt his family fortune was, in a sense, parallel with misunderstanding utterly the true nature and use of the NLF, as was the reneging on the agreement tacitly made with the Iraqi military by Bremer. The destruction of middle figures created a landscape of absolute factions.

The idea that the invasion-occupation was doomed to the worst case scenario no matteer what has been clutched by pro-war supporters who have turned anti-war - such as MY - but it makes little sense. The mitigation of the effects of the invasion/occupation on the Iraqis is not a little thing - it is huge. If U.S. 'mistakes" cost an extra fifty-one hundred thousand lives, that is an immense, historical crime.

What was doomed, of course, was the dream of making Iraq some sort of American client state. And, domestically, in the U.S., the dream of being able to host dozens of quick wars by an executive branch untethered by any responsibility to the legislative branch and given carte blanche by an indifferent general population, from whom no sacrifice was demanded.

I am almost entirely with Patrick on this one, I don't accept the premise that South Vietnam could have been saved on the cheap. But, if one does for the sake of argument, then it is not necessarily a bad bet to have done so, the flaws of the regime aside (It's worth noting that Communist Vietnam did not begin reform in earnest until after the Soviets fell).

That said, I don't think any of the major Democratic candidates, even Richardson, are ruling out aiding the post-occupation Iraqi gov't. Though I would hope any aid does come with serious strings attached.

To the military "experts" who claim we were winning in Viet Nam: I was a Marine, boots on the ground from '68 - '69. 1. What was going on didn't feel like winning. 2. The forces opposing us had been in nearly continuous combat with massive casualties since 1935 against the French followed by the Japanese followed by the French followed by the US. By what stretch of imagination does anyone believe they had decided to stop?
"But the US never lost a major engagment aginst the enemy in Viet Nam." So what, nationalist insurgencies don't have to win battles, they just have to continue to fight with support from a significant segment of the population. They live there, the enemy doesn't, so as long as they are a viable force they win.
For our current quagmire, if you total the Shi'a and Sunni militias in Iraq today it is obvious the "enemy" defined as those opposing our presence is stronger today than ever before.

Korea and Vietnam are truly apples and oranges. Korea was essentially a conventional war, with an invasion from the North, later supported by the Chinese when the U.S. pushed back too far toward the Chinese border. (Something that restrained U.S. tactics vis a vis North Vietnam.)

Vietnam was always a guerilla war, with the add on of a more conventional war invasion at the very end. The notion that we had the war won in 1972 is just laughable. Despite the extraordinary casualties that they had sustained, the Vietnamese communists were never deterred from their goal of unifying the country under their rule. They would have fought on for another decade had they needed to -- and the people in the US were, rightly, way past the point of wanting to tolerate more sacrifice for seemingly unattainable ends.


Just to be difficult, has it anyone thought of checking just how much money continuing support of South Vietnam would have cost? Allow for inflation.

I learned a lot from the above. I want to echo Stuart's point and turn it into a question for those with more expertise. Is the talk of a 'cutoff' based on fact or is it a highly tendentious right-wing idea that, in the usual way, is being surreptitiously mainstreamed? Like Stuart and, I think, Patrick, my sense, based on rusty memories from childhood and some reading thereafter, is that the US continued to support South Vietnam with aid (were there also bombings?) after American troops had pulled out. So what gives? Did Congress eliminate all support in every form? That's what talk of a 'cutoff' suggests. Or did it refuse to supply some form of support esp. favored by South Vietnam? Or something else.

Re roger

Just as a matter of fact, Napoleon could have and should have won the Battle of Waterloo. Had he sent in the Imperial Guard at 4pm instead of 6pm, the line held by the British Army would have almost certainly collapsed because it was greatly weakened by the fall of Hougoumont and the desertion of Belgian troops. By deferring the attack for 2 hours, he gave Wellington time to reform his defensive line; the moral of the story is that you don't give as competent a commander as Wellington was a two hour respite to recover from a reverse. In doing so, Napoleon violated one his his storied maxims, "I may lose a battle but I will never lose a minute."

If the right was really concerned about the fate of the Vietnamese post-withdrawl shouldn't they be clamoring for reparations, humanitarian aid, or even a day in court for the native victims of Agent Orange?

Sorry, folks, it didn't take Tet to tell me that the American nonsense in Vietnam was silly. I called for America to get out after the Ben Hoa raid in 1962.

Kennedy was still alive, there were roughly 750 Americans in Viet Nam (raised to 10,500 after the raid), and it was obvious to the naked eye that the JFK gang were just blundering around at random.

I think it is important to remember that they had just fucked up totally at the Bay of Pigs, and were desperate for something to distract themselves with.

Kennedy himself was strung out on drugs and spent most of his time worrying about the next woman to fuck, while his main advisors, guys with Big Time names like Walt Whitman and Eugene Victor (as in Debs), were trying to make their bones.

Poor blundering MacNamara, a man whose many many faults I know rather well {a.) because I heard about them day by day at the time; and b.) because I probably share most of them.} was just the Fool on the Hill without a hill. Poor lost bugger -- except that he was killing hundreds of people every day in the Free Fire Zones of Vietnam.

He's confessed now. OK, Now let's hang the bastard, the way we did Streicher and Goebbels and all the other mass mindless romantic adventurous intelligent ambitious killers, all of them trying to advance the human race as they saw it cut out for them.

But if I am Nixon in 1972 or whatever, that ship has sailed. And if it truly was the case that the US could have prevented South Vietnam's fall with "aid," then that might be justified if aid means something like "advising, equipment, and money." However, if aid means "massive bombing campaigns in North Vietnam and Cambodia, mining Haiphong harbor, and 1.5 million US soldiers on the ground" then it seems pretty obviously a bad bet.

The amazing part of Kaplan's piece is how little interest, how discouraging the Left-Jewish dominated publishing industry was in promoting the actual story of US soldiers that served. That those suppressed books, many dedicated to Richard Nixon for bombing the hell out of the Commies to force an end to the War and the POW release now circulate amongst a Samdazit of professional American soldiers that have passed on the "real story" of Vietnam to other soldiers for two generations.

Now those books and stories are getting out by the Internet, and facts, like 91% of US soldiers who served in actual combat in Vietnam are proud of their service and the honor they gained --can no longer be suppressed. The fact of the Left-Jewish smear on the honor of US-ARVN troops, suppressing the soldiers own stories to facilitate the "politically correct" metanarrative - is now getting told to wider audiences, and all Vietnam Vets that served honorably are united with Vets before and after Vietnam that the honor and valor of todays tropps will never be allowed to be smeared with the lies of the likes of John Kerry and Scott Thomas Beauchamp.

And as time goes by, we learn that even the North Vietnamese, China, and Soviet military and diplomats in their memoirs - called the Nixon Administration's Vietnamization strategy a brilliant success that was only undone by the Administrations not fighting the American media and Left-Democrats with equal skill. The VC were wiped out and 90% of S Vietnam had been made insurgent-free. The 68 and 72 campaigns had failed terribly. With Air cover, and heroic fighting by well-trained and committed ARVN forces, South Vietnam had wrecked the 73 offensive and pushed the NVA remnants into Cambodia.

General Giap later wrote that he simply didn't believe the Soviet claims that they could greatly influence the US media and US Democrats, and that their work would cause the US to toss away 12 years of sacrifice and victory was at hand for communism in 1974. But Giap said, it happened just as the Soviets said it would, though they were almost always wrong in the past about the USA. The NVA loaded up on fresh Chinese and Soviet supplies, pushed South in 1975, and the US refused to supply the South and betrayed them. Let them die as a nation. Giap thought it was the end of America as a power if a media and dissident minority inside America ("our allies on American mainstreets") could bring them down.

And from around 1975 to 1982, the communists were on the march and winning victory after victory. Then Reagan and his team began their endgame...

Matt claims: "Propping up the South Vietnamese government was an expensive and diplomatically costly proposition."

No. It was fairly cheap to prop it up, a small fraction of the cost of the Iraq War. With the introduction of the laser-guided smart bomb in large numbers in 1972, which helped defeat that year's North Vietnamese offensive, American air power was finally living up to the claims made for it.

And it was vastly more diplomatically costly to pull the plug on a friendly government, as Congress did in December 1974 right after the big Democratic victories in the midterms, and throw it to the wolves as the U.S. did.

Matt is succumbing to an interesting fallacy that is the opposite of the well-known sunk cost fallacy. In December of 1974, the survival of South Vietnam wasn't worth the vast sunk cost of the past dozen years, but the much smaller marginal cost required to survive the coming North Vietnamese offensive was probably worth spending.

The United Stated NEVER CUT OFF AID TO SAIGON. NEVER. The claim that the US abandoned South Vietnam is ABSOLUTELY FALSE. Aid to Saigon ended the day Saigon fell. The government of South Vietnam NEVER lacked for military equipment, money, etc etc. What it lacked entirely was any popular support!

We didn't even stop bombing Vietnam until the South fell. We stopped bombing the North, but we continued bombing support of ARVN in the South, right up to the very end.

Go look it up.

Anybody want to guess how many Americans were killed-in-action in Vietnam in 1972, the year U.S. airpower and South Vietnamese manpower defeated the biggest communist offensive since 1968?

I learned a lot from the above. I want to echo Stuart's point and turn it into a question for those with more expertise. Is the talk of a 'cutoff' based on fact or is it a highly tendentious right-wing idea that, in the usual way, is being surreptitiously mainstreamed? Like Stuart and, I think, Patrick, my sense, based on rusty memories from childhood and some reading thereafter, is that the US continued to support South Vietnam with aid (were there also bombings?) after American troops had pulled out. So what gives? Did Congress eliminate all support in every form? That's what talk of a 'cutoff' suggests. Or did it refuse to supply some form of support esp. favored by South Vietnam? Or something else.


Posted by J | August 27, 2007 1:32 PM

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As good a quick summary as any:

A consensus formed that the United States should not re-engage and should reduce its remaining involvement still further. Reflecting this, in June 1973, Congress ordered all U.S. military operations in Indochina to cease by the end of the summer, and in November it passed the War Powers Act.

Congress also cut U.S. aid to Saigon, from about $2.3 billion in 1973 to about $1 billion in 1974 and still less after that. Together with the 1973 oil crisis, which crippled what remained of the South Vietnamese economy, this made it difficult for Saigon to use the expensive high-tech war machine it had been given. So, even if Watergate never occurred, it would have been difficult for the Nixon administration to counter Northern attacks in any substantial way. That said, the developing Watergate scandals did eliminate whatever freedom of action the administration had left.

In late 1974, the North Vietnamese leadership calculated that American re-entry to help the South was unlikely, and they launched a campaign to win the war once and for all. Their initial victories in the spring of 1975 came easily. At this point, Kissinger, now Gerald Ford's secretary of state, recommended a final desperate burst of U.S. help, but the new president acquiesced to public and congressional objections.

http://www.slate.com/id/2158016/pagenum/2/

"You can kill ten of our men for every one we kill of yours. But even at those odds, you will lose and we will win." -- Ho Chi Minh

"That those suppressed books, many dedicated to Richard Nixon for bombing the hell out of the Commies to force an end to the War and the POW release now circulate amongst a Samdazit of professional American soldiers that have passed on the "real story" of Vietnam to other soldiers for two generations."


Considering the fact that Nixon's "bombing the hell out of the Commies" resulted in the utter destruction of Cambodia, the rise of the Khmer Rouge and attendent genocide, it is no wonder books praising such crimes has only gained traction among the demented.

Croaton,

You are making the mistake of actually considering the motivations of our opponents and the fact that they have some say in the outcome of such struggles.

In crazy cuckoo stab in the back right wing world, all that matters is our will and its use in killing with indiscriminate ferocity. If we got the will, baby, we just can't lose. Only liberals and their lilly livered allies in the press can lose wars.

Chomsky on U.S. policy post-withdrawl:

"In January 1973 Nixon and Kissinger were compelled to accept the peace proposals they had sought to modify after the November 1972 elections. As in 1954, the acceptance was purely formal. The Paris Agreements recognized two equivalent parties in South Vietnam, the PRG and the GVN, and established a basis for political reconciliation. The US was enjoined not to impose any political tendency or personality on South Vietnam. But Nixon and Kissinger announced at once that in defiance of the scrap of paper signed in Paris, they would recognize the GVN as the sole legitimate government, its constitutional structure—which outlawed the other party—intact and unchanged.

In violation of the agreements, Thieu intensified political repression and launched a series of military actions. By mid-1974, US officials were optimistically reporting the success achieved by the Thieu regime, with its vast advantage in firepower, in conquering PRG territory where, they alleged, a North Vietnamese buildup was underway. As before, the whole rotten structure collapsed from within as soon as the "enemy" was so ungracious as to respond, and this time Washington itself had collapsed to the point where it could no longer send in bombers."

http://www.chomsky.info/articles/19750612.htm

Nobody seems too interested in knowing how many Americans were killed in action in 1972, the year of the the biggest victory of the war, the defeat of the first North Vietnamese tank invasion. It's just so much more fun to argue without knowing any pesky numbers! Just to be annoying, here it is the figure:

300

http://www.rjsmith.com/kia_tbl.html

There were about an equal number of non-combat deaths.

So Steve Sailer,

Does that imply that the cost in American lives of saving South Vietnam from the 1974-75 invasion would have been similarly low, had we chosen not to abandon that country?

Perhaps had we defended South Vietnam then, today it would be a prosperous democracy like South Korea. And Democrats like Hillary Clinton wouldn't have felt compelled to vote for the war in Iraq to burnish their hawkish credentials, after Democrats' advocacy of surrender in Vietnam led to them being distrusted on national security for a generation.

It's important to note the obvious differences between Vietnam and Iraq. First, in the Vietnamese civil war, at least we had a side. Unfortunately, we had the less militaristic side, the clannish, crooked, hedonistic Southerners instead of the belligerent, self-sacrificing, fanatical northerners. (When Henry Kissinger first visited Hanoi, the cultural differences with Saigon reminded him of Prussia vs. Austria.) But, in Vietnam, at least we had a side.

Total fatalities suffered by the South Vietnam army have been estimated at 206,000. In other words, they fought. Sometimes, they fought even worse than the French did in 1940, other times they fought bravely, and a few times they fought bravely and effectively. To keep on fighting in the expensive way we'd trained them, they needed American air power and a lot of American money, and when that wasn't in the cards anymore, they collapsed under the North Vietnamese tank and artillery invasion of late 1974-75 about as fast as France collapsed in 1940. But, as bad as that record is, it's a lot better than what we've seen in Iraq.

Steve Sailer,

I was just looking up the figure for US casualties in 1972 in the Vietnam War and found there were 641 US troops killed that year. I can't account for the difference between your figure I just see now (300) and the one at Wikipedia. That should not be surprising since Nixon had almost completed his "Vietnamization" plan of withdrawal of ground troops and warring almost solely through dropping of bombs.

I believe we also both know that US casualties from 1966 to 1971 were the big years that make the Vietnam Memorial Wall so large. Again, though, the number of Vietnamese killed was over ten times that overall 50,000 and maybe as much as 1.5 to 2.0 million--we stopped counting early on unless our leaders wanted to show what it called "progress."

But my point was not about American casualties. It was about the South Vietnamese government under President Thieu and others and Vietnamese casualties.

Your point could be reasonably seen as annoying to the extent you think most critics of the US-Vietnam war don't care about American casualties. Wanting the troops home is a powerful statement about protecting against further US casualties in this circumstance. Yes, it begs the question about the correctness of the war, but being critical does not mean we should want more US casualties.

Personal note: I was born in 1957, and did not even reach 18 until several months after South Vietnam formally fell to the North. I did lots of reading on the war and listened to veterans who thought the war was winnable as well as those who thought it was a mess or hopeless. I also felt it was important to understand our leaders' thinking, motivation and understanding of the region and in the context of global policy. As an adult living through the current war, I am utterly appalled at the same lying, hubris and casually violent and elitist attitudes from those who support this current war. It is like a bad farce.


The difference between 300 killed in action and 641 total fatalities is primarily accidents. Young men driving high powered trucks and planes get themselves killed a lot in accidents, no doubt more often in war zones than back home on military bases, but the death rate in training stateside is still pretty high.

(Although, I've heard an estimate that sending a half million troops to the Gulf in 1990-91 actually lowered the total death rate because no liquor was allowed in Saudi Arabia. Tom Wolfe famously pointed out that the chance of dying during a 20 year stint as a fighter pilot was 22%, but later in The Right Stuff, he admitted that more fighter jocks died in car crashes than plane crashes -- but being a reckless drunken driver was considered a symbol of having the right stuff, so the higher-ups would typically alter the records to show the pilot dying in the line of duty so his widow could have a bigger pension. Seems fair ... )

Steve,

I'm not sure what the significance is of your pointing out the relatively low casualty figures of 1972. First of all, this was at the point in the war when it was apparent that the US was going to pull out altogether. Not a lot of people wanted to be the "last man to die for a mistake" to coin a phrase. Second, the NVA and VC were also well aware that the time of our departure was close. All they needed was to wait a little longer and they would take on ARVN alone, which had a pretty unimpressive record when fighting on its own.

The notion that had we just hung in there a little while longer and paid the price, things would have gone our way strikes me as the worst kind of wishful thinking. We threw 500,000 men and an absolutely ungodly amount of ordnance at the communists and in the end had nothing to show for it except a whole lot of corpses on all sides. The NVA and VC forces were not giving up and time was on their side.

Vietnam and Iraq are very different wars, other than the fact that both demonstrate the limits of even a super power to impose its will via occupation. The communist in Vietnam tapped into a kind of super nationalism among the Vietnamese people who were determined to throw off a series of foreign occupiers.

In Iraq, any sense of national identity seems to be subsumed to tribal, linguistic, and sect loyalties creating an even more anarchic situation than existed in Vietnam. Who is the enemy in Iraq? Other than Al Quaeda in Iraq, which our invasion essentially created, it is hard to get a very coherent answer to that question. Certainly, this administration never gives a very clear sense that it has the answer.

The point of the low American casualty figure in 1972 is that that was the year of a massive North Vietnamese offensive, the biggest since Tet in 1968, and much more mechanized. And, yet, it was defeated by a combination of American air power and the much maligned South Vietnamese ground forces -- with little in the way of American casualties.

The communists went and mostly licked their wounds for 30 months until December 1974, when they mounted a tentative offensive. They discovered that the U.S. wouldn't respond, so they sent 800 tanks in a big invasion in March 1975. The South Vietnamese army, when ordered to stage a fighting retreat from the northern provinces of South Vietnam, and without the American air support (or American naval gunfire that could have protected the main coastal highway) that they had successfully relied upon in 1972, collapsed in chaos.

So, for a few billion dollars and maybe 100 American pilots' lives, we would have had a decent chance of saving South Vietnam in 1975. Since the communist offensives (January 1968, March 1972, March 1975) were staged every 3 to 4 years apart, that probably would have kept South Vietnam going into 1978. By then, Deng was gaining power in China (and would invade North Vietnam in 1979), so another offensive by the North in 1978 or 1979 would have risked exposing Hanoi to a two front war.

I guess I'm not convinced. I think the regime and its army had rotted to the point of no return by 1975. I also think the communists bided their time based on the overall circumstances facing both the US and the South. I just don't sense that we had the wherewithal to stop what happened.

I also don't think Deng would have invaded if the struggle with the US was still going on. As I recall, China got slapped pretty badly in his encounter.

Maybe, maybe not, but it would have been relatively cheap to try.

I guess that depends if you are one of the 100 or so pilots or the God knows how many Vietnamese who would have died in the bombardment. And look, we've now ended up in the same place -- with an authoritarian regime opening up its economy so that the cheap labor of its people can be exploited.

Marx would be so proud.

Campesino,

Thanks for your responsive response. It seems to be worth adding one bit of the Slate article by Gideon Rose that you cite.

"To allay Thieu's fears, they ordered a massive quick infusion of aid to the South and promised to continue support after the agreement was signed; meanwhile, to get the North Vietnamese back to the table, they ordered devastating airstrikes."

i don't know what 'normal' levels of aid were, or whether the could be disentangled from the expenses related to the presence in S. Vietnam of US forces, but it may be that the reduction mentioned in the part of the article you quote was from the 'massive quick infusion'. In any case, talk of 'cutting off' aid, from the Robert Kaplan quotation opening quotation above is, at a minimum, highly misleading.

That's what can't be forgotten, that the money being debated at the time of the cutoff wasn't much, even in 1975 dollars, and the number of American lives being risked was fairly small, and the draft was over. Nearly everybody on either side of this debate pretends to know what would have happened. They don't, and a lot of people we made explicit promises to were murdered in the aftermath.

Steve Sailer & Chris Ford,

What you are not considering in your analysis is why the South Vietnamese government collapsed so quickly in the face of the final North Vietnamese assault, when the momentum of victory was supposedly on its side. Can the cutoff of aid in late 1974 really explain the collapse of the South Vietnamese government within 1 year? I don't think so. South Vietnam had a larger population, a larger military, and a larger & more dynamic economy than the Commie North. Even with the aid cutoff, the South should have been able to hold off the North. The oil embargo of 1973 should not have mattered, since the Commie North would have been affected by it as much as the relatively capitalist South. (Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Commie tanks & planes require gasoline as much as tanks & planes made by capitalists? Moreover, didn't Commie military equipment tend to be energy inefficient compared to military equipment made by capitalists?).

What's the missing element that explains the South
Vietnamese defeat, when on paper they were in a superior position to the North even without US aid? The missing element is that majority of the South Vietnamese populace supported reunification with the North, and thus turned against the goverment in Saigon. That deprived the South Vietnamese government of one its key advantages over the North; a larger, better fed population whose brains had not been turned into mush by Communist indoctrination.

Had the South Vietnamese government garnered the support of the its populace the way the South Korean government had, then, yes, your scenarios of a South Vietnamese victory would have come to fruition LONG BEFORE 1975. However, because the South Vietnamese government never gained that support from its own people, the dynamic that we had in Korea of a South unified against the North never materialized. Thus, instead of repelling an invasion from a Communist aggressor whose presence was unwanted in the country we were defending, we were instead intervening militarily into a civil war among the Vietnamese, a civil war we really had no business being involved with (especially in the light of Matt's point that the "loss" of Vietnam did not prevent us from defeating the Communists, despite the domino theory argument).

As for the argument that the "loss" of Vietnam (I put loss in quotation marks since Ho Chi Minh's dreams of a Communist state in Vietnam ultimately failed; the generation of Vietnamese born after the war's end have rejected Communism entirely and have embraced capitalism with the fervor of a Saigon black marketeer in the 1960s) led to the victories by Communists in places like Mozambique & Nicaragua, and to the overthrow of the Shah in Iran, that argument is quite frankly rightwing BS. The reality is that those revolutions succeeded for the same reason that the Communists prevailed in South Vietnam; authoritarian antiCommunist regimes who were despised by the majority of the people in their countries do not last if the movements opposing them are viewed with more legitimacy by the people than the regimes themselves. Propping up unpopular anti-Communist authoritarian regimes was a bad long-term method for fighting the Cold War, and by the 1970s, the long-term had arrived. What had worked for the most part in the 1950s (with the notable exception of Cuba), which was just 10 years after the start of the Cold War, had failed to work by the 1970s. We could get away with propping up the Shah of Iran or the Somozoas in Nicaragua or the various goverments of South Vietham in the 1950s & 1960s, but by the 1970s the time for these regimes had simply run out.

Stephen Sailor's bizarre idea that the metric for vietnam in 1972 was the amount of American soldiers killed is nutty, and of course helps us to focus not on what the revisionists have to say - that the ARVN was an autonomous and competent force - but on a meaningless number. What was the number of ARVN killed in 1972 is, of course, the only salient figure - besides how well they performed. So let's post the numbers:

In 1972, the ARVN casualty figure is 25,787. Wow. But surely those fearsome ARVN did some damage to the North Vietnamese, eh? Well, that casualty figure is 4,261. Here's the source. http://www.rjsmith.com/kia_tbl.html

Flights of fantasy like the idea that America had the willpower, the money, and the need to prop up the government they designed in South Vietnam is as ludicrous as Steven Sailor's pseudo-scientific racism.

It is always fantasy island with the American imperialist and racist set. But the fantasies have no content. Nixon and Kissinger, whose attempts to subvert American democracy were tied to their continuation of the Vietnam war long past the point that any rationale was left - Watergate, after all, started with the break in of Daniel Ellsberg's doctor's office, and he was targeted because of the Pentagon Papers - were pretty clear themselves as to what the South Vietnamese government was - an incompetent American creation that they could do anything with that they wanted to, except of course make it work. When Kissinger presented Thieu with the treaty between the three parties - the U.S.A, South Vietnam and North Vietnam - he didn't even bother to present him with the Vietnamese version. Dallek's recent book recounts the scene, one in which Thieu actually has a certain moral grandeur utterly lacking in any other moment of his life. It was the end of the puppet show. Rambo-lite dreams of America winning are, of course, a peckerwood special among the peculiar set of the booboisie that Mencken squeezed such fun out of. And there they still are - in your basement, playing their return to Vietnam games.

"Can the cutoff of aid in late 1974 really explain the collapse of the South Vietnamese government within 1 year?"

Sure it can. South Vietnam was only in mortal danger every three or four years when the communists geared up for a major offensive. The 1972 and 1975 North Vietnamese Army offensives didn't coincide with romantic notions of indigenous guerrillas in black pajamas. They were May 1940 type fighting between regular armies. The South had survived the 1972 NVA offensive because of American air support. When America didn't provide air support in the 1975 offensive (which began, tentatively, in 12/74), the handwriting was on the wall for South Vietnam. Why die in a losing cause? To consolidate his forces, Thieu ordered a fighting retreat from the northern part of the country, the kind of maneuver the Germans executed well in WWII but not too many other armies down through history, and, unsurprisingly, it turned into a rout.

People love a winner and hate a loser. If the Germans had ultimately prevailed in WWII, you'd hear the same things said around here about the South Vietnamese about how the French and Russians had deserved to get conquered by the Nazis.

Something else forgotten about the Vietnam war is that America's bizarrely ineffectual conduct of the war -- as epitomized by our not mining Haiphong Harbor until after the beginning of North Vietnam's 1972 offensive -- was based on a massive misconception. Analogizing from the nearly disastrous Korean War experience where MacArthur's success in taking the war into North Korea after the Inchon landing was followed by a million Chinese troops pouring into the conflict, American political leaders were terrified of taking the war to North Vietnam and risking another Chinese intervention. Indeed, there were 170,000 Chinese troops in North Vietnam at their peak in 1967, but China was so chaotic during the Cultural Revolution and so distrustful of the traditional Vietnamese enemy that this risk was greatly overestimated.

One reason why we were able to stop the North Vietnamese invasion with so few casualties in 1972 was our use of a then-new weapon, which proved devastating against tanks: laser-guided bombs. There's no reason why these weapons wouldn't have had a similarly devastating effect on North Vietnamese tanks had we used them in 1974-75.

BTW, Roger: this isn't a fantasy of "winning" the Vietnam War. First, the prospect of stopping a North Vietnamese invasion with a combination of American air power and South Vietnamese ground troops had already demonstrated its viability in 1972; it's not fantastic to assume a similar result from similar methods would have been possible in '74-'75. Second, defending South Vietnam from invasion wouldn't have resulted in "winning" since, to win a war, your opponent must be defeated. The situation would have been more akin to the stalemate that ended the Korean War. Nevertheless, South Vietnam would probably be a prosperous democracy today had we defended it in '74-'75. Instead it is becoming a tiny, U.S.-aligned China.

After the Korean War, South Korea was easier to defend than Vietnam from another northern invasion because it's on a peninsula and has only a 150 mile border with the Norks. South Vietnam had the misfortune of having not just a short border with the North, but also very long borders with the hapless neutral countries Laos and Cambodia whose neutrality North Vietnam flagrantly violated for so many years.

Also, Korea had been colonized by Japan, not by whites. America's racial and political relationship with the French colonizers hurt us in Vietnam.

That's true, Steve. Unlike South Korea, South Vietnam would probably still have had to battle guerrilla fighters on its own territory for years, but -- had we defended it from invasion by the North -- it would likely still be around today. South Vietnam may have ended up facing long-running pockets of guerrillas as India and The Philippines, for example, continue to face today.

Far be for me to criticize those engaging in alternative histories, but I would dissent at least somewhat from Steve S and Fred as to whether there was a chance for a viable South Vietnam. Both seem to believe President Thieu could have survived as the leader of a stable South Vietnam. I see no reasonable probability in that as the peasants continued to support the remaining South Vietnamese guerrilas and N Vietnamese over the South Vietnamese government.

Killing lots more people in bombing is something that is also not considered.

Ho was more likely to associate with the US anyway (he did not like the Chinese and was very suspicious of the Russians), and as we look today at a Vietnam willing to engage with American corporations, I hope we can see the folly of propping up President Thieu and his cohorts, who never had the support outside of Saigon in a way that even President Rhee was able to secure in South Korea.

Finally, those familiar with the history of Korea post-WWII would immediately recognize there was a far more developed sense of desire for separation from the North than ever existed in Vietnam. This helped provide a space for an American presence that did not require persistent American bombing and decimating of people and land. Recall that South Vietnam was really created by the US (Ike and Dulles leading the way) in order to undermine the 1954 Geneva Accords that recognized one Vietnam and called for nationwide elections in 1956.

I should correct one error in phrasing. Ho died in 1969, and my comment was about pre-1969 and why the US should never have invaded Vietnam in the first place.

Now, off to work!

Fred, BTW, Roger: this isn't a fantasy of "winning" the Vietnam War. First, the prospect of stopping a North Vietnamese invasion with a combination of American air power and South Vietnamese ground troops had already demonstrated its viability in 1972.

Actually, no. In 1972, the Chinese and Soviets provided a record number of weapons. The importance of 1972 was that it showed the NVA had recovered from Tet and the Cambodian incursion. 1972 was a much more bloody and active year for the NVA and ARVN than the previous year. Now, the ARVN did fight well in some theaters. But they proved unable, once again, to stand a concentrated battle, and had to be rescued by the Americans - some ten years after Americans were assured that the ARVN could fight. bY 1972, Kissinger, who wasn't playing a war game in the basement but got real time information about the war, had already concluded that, without the U.S. being there, South Vietnam would fall apart in 18 months. See Dallek's book.

It is worth noting how much of the revisionist case is made up out of thin air. For instance, take 1972. Revisionists commonly claim that the NVA took 100,000 casualties during the offenses of that year. Since the invading army was composed of 120,000 people, they would have, tactically, nobody left. So where do they get these figures? When you trace it back, it comes from ARVN estimates of casualties - in other words, just as the U.S. army habitually exaggerated kill counts during the war by 2 or 3 times, the revisionists contiue the practice all the way up to now. And the revisionists never, ever use the mass of Vietnamese materials that have become available as the Vietnamese government has opened its archive. In other words, we are talking about the same tired warmonger scholars that so amply gorge on 'chairs' at Heritage and AEI, and staff the military colleges.

Finally, the idea that a war has nothing to do with the will of a country to continue a war - in other words, that you can compartmentalize politics and military affairs - is, of course, utter nonsense. It has always been utter nonsense. North Vietnam's will was simply never broken. The U.S. by 1972 realized a few things - for instance, that the economic boom of the sixties was over. In 1974, the oil embargo put paid to 30 some years of expansion. Fred and Steven Sailer entertain fantasies of the American population putting up with spending another hundred billion keeping South Vietnam going - although without giving an indication why this would be a good idea, or why the idea was so unpopular in the 70s you couldn't get elected advocating it. To explain this, the warmongers commonly evoke the MSM to play the devil's role. This is quite funny. Now, myself, I was a teen during those years, patriotically supporting our army and all that crap - but in retrospect I'm happy that the Americans lost - the North Vietnamese were right. And they have done more for South Vietnam than any jerrybuilt American imposed government could do. But the incredible loss of life was certainly not worth it, especially when there were good alternatives - most notably, as I've said before, ending the resistance to accepting the NLF into the government and letting the South Vietnamese leadership make peace with the North in 64-65. That leadership was overthrown by a coup organized by the Americans - the second in two years, the first being Diem. This in itself demonstrates how insane to think that the U.S. had any moral standing to talk about an "independent" South Vietnam. The erosion of American moral credibility, contra the revisionist case, was directly relevant to the American loss of the war - to continue a war one is waging for a supposedly 'moral' cause and to continually operate immorally and in contradiction to one's propaganda will, over time, fatally weaken the will to fight in a democracy. Play the Vietnam tape over again, you will get the same defeat. And you will get the same basement war gamer revisionists coming up with impossible deus ex machina retro-solutions. Sorry. Reality has closed the argument long ago.

Steve Sailer writes

"South Vietnam was only in mortal danger every three or four years when the communists geared up for a major offensive. The 1972 and 1975 North Vietnamese Army offensives didn't coincide with romantic notions of indigenous guerrillas in black pajamas. They were May 1940 type fighting between regular armies. The South had survived the 1972 NVA offensive because of American air support. When America didn't provide air support in the 1975 offensive (which began, tentatively, in 12/74), the handwriting was on the wall for South Vietnam. Why die in a losing cause? To consolidate his forces, Thieu ordered a fighting retreat from the northern part of the country, the kind of maneuver the Germans executed well in WWII but not too many other armies down through history, and, unsurprisingly, it turned into a rout."

This only proves my point that the momentum of victory was not on the South Vietnam government's side; they had not been defeated by the North Vietnamese forces before 1975 only because of American military intervention. If the South Vietnamese military required American air support to deal with North Vietnamese tanks, despite South Vietnam having a larger population & military & GDP, this shows that the contention by you and Chris Ford and Fred that the South Vietnamese were on the verge of victory is nonsense. No wonder why the South Vietnamese military failed so utterly; they were clearly a puppet military defending a puppet regime. This hardly supports your claim that with a little bit of extra help, the South Vietnamese could have prevailed in 1975.

Moreover, the fall of Saigon in 1975 to the North Vietnamese forces did not have to result in the war's end. If the South Vietnamese population was truly behind its government the way the South Koreans were, the South Vietnamese could have continued with a guerilla war AGAINST THE COMMUNISTS. What's your explanation for a lack of an insurgency against the Communists after the fall of Saigon?

Steve Sailer,

A key part of creating the stalemate between North & South Korea was an OBSERVED ARMISITICE, something that was obviously lacking between North & South Vietnam. Had Nixon or Ford actually succeeded in brokering a true armistice the way Ike had been able to in Korea, then your argument that the South Vietnamese government could have survived with a little bit of extra help would actually be true. However, the fact that South Vietnam's survival would have required intermittent or even continual American military intervention shows that South Vietnam needed a lot more than a little bit of help. There's a big difference between providing a garrison force that maintains a ceasefire and providing air cover in a shooting war.

Let's say that America had started rearming in 1936, and in 1940, American airpower based in England had thwarted the German blitzkrieg on France, despite a poor performance by French ground troops. Now, it's 1943 and the Germans are trying again. This time, America doesn't help out by air, the French Army, realizing that the key factor that had saved them in 1940 won't save them this time, collapses. And the French people don't rise up in guerrilla rebellion.

I suspect we'd be having the same discussion, only you all would be mad at me for claiming that some air support could have saved France in 1943 like it saved France in 1940, when everybody knows that the French deserved to be conquered. They lost, didn't they? And losers are contemptible.

Meanwhile, Matt would be pointing out that, heck, we eventually won WWII in 1947 (by nuking the entire Axis empire), so that, on the theory they teach Harvard philosophy majors that all's well that ends well, then our entire support of France was a waste because we should have just waited around until our inevitable atomic weapons advantage had kicked in.

France was and is a defined nation with a defined culture--and had an active guerrilla movement fighting against the German Nazi government. Whether it was as effective as French history books say is a separate question, but I think it fair to say that even without US intervention into WWII, the French resistance would eventually have proven more than an irritant to the Nazis.

Unlike France, South Vietnam was created out of whole cloth by a power elite in Washington, DC in the mid-1950s--and the next 20 years saw multiple governments taking over as much by coups as phony elections. Also, there was little support for the US-created South Vietnam in the countryside outside of Saigon or even Hue. Both the 1954 Geneva Accords and the Nixon "peace with honor" 1973 Peace Accords recognized one nation despite all the fighting: A single nation known as Vietnam. Not South or North Vietnam.

At some point, we have to look at the weariness of the American people, the resistance of the vast majority of Vietnamese people, and the massive bombing and troops the US sent over and into Vietnam over a period of seven years, in order to make an alternative history stick where South Vietnam survives under a President Thieu.

The war in Vietnam was a civil war. That makes it significantly different from the Germans invading France or Iraq invading Kuwait. If that sounds like Star Trek's "prime directive" or UN speak, then so be it. I think it is a valid distinction for our nation to make when considering a deep intervention lasting periods of years.

The main exception to that "prime directive" is when there is a true genocide going on, as in Cambodia (recall George McGovern calling for intervention into Cambodia in 1978, and the subsequent Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia in 1979 which dethroned the Khmer Rouge). That is why, contrary to Rush Limbaugh, there is a greater urge on many Americans to intervene in Darfur than Iraq.

The other exception was when the US was attacked by Al Queda on 9/11/2001, and the US went after their base in Afghanistan and supporters in the Afghan government. Many of us who opposed and still oppose the war in Iraq supported the US intervention into Afghanistan.

Steve,

Sounds like you have abandoned your argument that South Vietnam needed just a little bit of help to hold off the North, and are now using incorrect WW2 analogies. A more appropriate analogy for you to use for South Vietnam's conflict with North Vietnam is pre-Franco Spain. One can make the argument that Spain could have been saved from Fascism had it received aid or even military intervention from the US. However, as tragic as it was for Spain to have to endure Franco's fascism, it would been a strategic mistake to make saving Loyalist Spain a priority in the war against fascism. It was more important to deal with Hitler militarily than it was to deal with people like Franco. Likewise, it was more important to deal with Brezhnev or
Mao Zedong than it was to deal with Ho Chi Minh.

Moreover, nobody is saying the South Vietnamese deserved Communism because the Saigon government failed to prevail over the Hanoi government. We are saying that the South Vietnamese goverment lost because the people in their country supported the Communists over the antiCommunist Saigon government, because Ho Chi Minh's movement was viewed by the Vietnamese in both North & South as being a nationalistic movement primarily. Therefore, it is wrong for you to say that the South Vietnamese lost the war; instead, what happened was that the Vietnamese anti-Communist regime in Saigon lost the war over reunification, because the majority of Vietnamese in both North & South favored unification over separation. However, the anti-Communists ultimately won the hearts & minds war, because the Vietnamese have rejected Communism.

The communists switched strategy radically from 1968's Tet guerilla uprising to the Soviet-style armoured invasions from outside the country in 1972 and 1975, which suggest that by the 1970s, they didn't believe they had the support within South Vietnam that you think they had. Instead, they switched over to a style of fighting particularly vulnerable to American air power, as their defeat in 1972 showed.

Nobody knows for sure what would have happened if we had provided air support to South Vietnam in 1975 as we had in 1972. The North Vietnamese were intensely worried about that, and didn't decide on a full scale offensive until after we had failed to respond to their tentative offensive in December 1974. The bottom line is that giving South Vietnam a fair shot at survival in 1975 would have been fairly cheap for us, but we didn't even try.

Interesting essay about this by Robert Tracinski ("The Left Loses The Vietnam War"):

"Whatever the failures of American strategy in Vietnam, there is no doubt that the anti-war left pushed for American failure and accomplished it by persistent and vigorous legislation. And that is the crucial issue. If the architects of the Vietnam War in the Johnson administration can be criticized (as Moyar does) for not doing enough to win the war, the later anti-war left actively pursued American defeat and humiliation as their goal. They didn't merely want us to withdraw; they wanted us to lose, and they did whatever was necessary to make sure that happened."

Tracinski also connects the dots from our feckless abandonment of South Vietnam to our current foreign policy troubles:

"But for everyone else, those events and their aftermath--the whole "national malaise" of the 1970s--was a painful period of national humiliation, for which we are still paying the price. The collapse of American power and credibility, combined with the "Vietnam Syndrome" that enshrined timidity as the cornerstone of American foreign policy, emboldened the Soviet Union and encouraged its invasion of Afghanistan--which gave birth to the "mujahadeen," the movement that gave Osama bin Laden his start and established his reputation. It also led to President Carter's withdrawal of support for the shah of Iran, which assured the success of the Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamic Revolution."

"So the twin pillars of the contemporary Islamist threat--al-Qaeda and the Islamic Republic of Iran--owe their origins to the collapse of American power in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. What new disasters wait to be spawned in the aftermath of a self-imposed defeat in Iraq?"

Fred, you are a complete immoral bastard. Just like the racist bastary Steve Sailer. Travel well together, you lying monsters.

Wow - a thread filled by lying monsters, led by the racist Steve Sailer.

Jennifer, you ignorant slut!

The one good thing to come out of the Vietnamese war - besides, of course, the unification of Vietnam under a legitimate goverment - was the Vietnam syndrome. Long may it live! Almost anything that would make the U.S.A. cautious about using its military is a good thing. The same reflex will be enforced by the Iraq fiasco. Pre-emptive wars will not be given the "let's throw a parade" pass by the press, or the populace. In addition, the Iraqi war has given us an accidental experiment in how much of the American public will believe anything if the outcome is exciting military action - a number which, I imagine, is correlated with the percentage needing stimulants to correct erectile dysfunction. It is around a quarter of the population. That makes sense both on political and Freudian grounds. That quarter comes out of a long history of lynching, or supporting interning enemies, of McCarthy-Hoover supporters, etc., etc. I imagine there is, in every country, a natural constituency for sadistic acts of repression. And they are incorrigible. But they need not dominate the public discourse, nor become the obsessive focus of liberal pols and their consultants, since they will never change. No argument will change them. Ever. And they will fight lost wars to their hearts content on their little war game software.

Climbing out of the vast hole made in American prestige, as well as in the American treasury, made by the disasterous and criminal Bush administration is going to take some time, and during that time liberals would be well advised to press the Iraqi syndrome home. Instead of worrying about a stab in the back narrative - which will flow out of the quarter dead-enders as naturally as sap comes out of a pine - now is the time to impress upon the generation growing up how disgusting and immoral most military action is, and how rarely it should be used.

The discussion of aid is very funny. Leaving aside the fact that the withdrawal of the US military was a critical blow to the structure of the Thieu regime, which ran on a corrupt patronage system funded by heroin sales to American GIs, and to the South Vietnamese economy, which, with all the refugees from the Nixon bombing campaign flooded into the cities, was dependent on servicing the US military. To keep their economy afloat we would have had to virtually match the SV GDP.

What the military aid comes down to is a request from Nixon for 1.4 billion for FY 1975 - congress authorized 1 billion of that, of which 700 million was appropriated. The initial request was inflated because Nixon knew well enough that it'd be trimmed down. Ford comes to congress in late January '75 to ask for the other $300 million. We know that $540 million of the original appropriation hadn't even been spent yet when he made that request, which calls into question claims at the time that the South Vietnamese had restructured supply and procurement processes sufficiently to actually utilize the aid they were receiving.

This gets batted around congressional committees for a few months. In an April Appropriations Committee hearing about it, for all the talk about critical ammunition shortages, Erick von Marbod - the DOD official in charge of spending the aid - explains that he'd probably spend over two thirds of the $300 million on communications equipment.

So the revisionist narrative about Congress losing the war, if it had its facts straight, would basically have to argue that South Vietnam - with the fourth largest army on the planet at the time, and still receiving far more aid than, say, Israel was using to hold off multiple Soviet armed clients - crumpled like a rag doll because they didn't have fancy enough walkie talkies.


Comments closed September 10, 2007.