Aqua Velva Power

OpenLeft's brklyngrl looks at the demographics of the GOP race:

In the Republican primary, ideology and partisan affiliation are major dividing lines that alter the dynamics of the race. Giuliani and Thompson are basically tied among Republican primary voters who describe themselves as strong Republicans, as well as among conservative leaning Republicans. McCain and Giuliani are close among independents who vote in the Republican primary. Additionally, the Thompson gender gap (widely reported) is worth keeping an eye on. In this omnibus survey, it is slightly larger than the Clinton gender gap, and in a recent ARG poll it was up to 30 points. It is bouncing around a lot, but I think Thompson will probably be in trouble in the general election if he can't even convince Republican women to vote for him.

Once again we see that actual women seem unmoved by Fred Thompson's alleged manly charms. Of course, with the Republican field it's still very hard to know how seriously to take levels of support Giuliani's getting from people who don't necessarily seem to be aware of his positions on the issue. The early primaries aren't so far away anymore, but something like "Rudy loves baby killers" is the kind of piece of information that can be disseminated pretty quickly.

Comments

So much for Matthews' , Thompson as sexy beast meme. Women just don't seem to get the manly man vibe that pasty faced middle aged talking heads of Matthews ilk get from Thompson.

Far be it from me to be able to reliably predict women voters preferences but I've always felt that Thompson's wife would be a gigantic liability with GOP women voters. With numbers so hugely against him however it's safe to say she isn't helping him.

It's looking more and more like Romney or Rudy, God help us.

Posted by rapier | September 23, 2007 9:21 AM

What's odd to me is that Law & Order is basically a woman's show. I think that if you look at the demographics of the viewership, it skews female (correctly me if I'm wrong). So I would have thought Thompson's demographic would be female.

As I've said before, Rudy's candidacy will be an interesting indicator of just how important issues are, as opposed to non-issue characteristics of candidates. Too many pundit-types and intellectuals view candidates as simply bundles of issue positions... that's not how a lot of voters view things.

Posted by Al | September 23, 2007 9:54 AM

I traipsed back the pdf referred to in the original posting. Wow!!! 120pgs and too-small type to read without printing. So kinda difficult to check the data.

But one characteristic of the interpretation from 'brklyngrl' seems to be that there is a stronger divide between Repubs along regional and ideological lines than between Dems.

If actually documented, this would tilt the Repubs toward the wonderful scenario of a Giuliani nomination followed by a southern-Christian lead splinter group. Not necessarily a third party, altho that would be great, but a movement to 'stay home' on election day or to vote for local/congressional candidates only. This would smash the national Repubs and the southerners and Christians could reasonably expect to be left in sole possession of whatever remains of the Repub party. It would complete their take-over.

Posted by JohnMcC | September 23, 2007 12:02 PM

It's completely possible that Thompson isn't running to win. He could be reaching the end of his Academy Award-shunning acting career and be looking to stoke his fee on the lecture circuit.

OTOH, if he won the presidency and we had to face his pinched yet bulbous lizard face for 4 years, I'd propose "Death Where is Thy Sting" as the motto for our money.

Posted by Jeffrey Davis | September 23, 2007 2:29 PM

If Freddie won, I'd expect a bunch of people who didn't vote for him, to start claiming a closer allegiance to France - well, maybe not, since they ahve a conservative. I know, it'll be England, happy-go-lucky living place for Gwyneth and Madonna, and other happy expats.

Posted by beneficial | September 24, 2007 1:33 AM