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Bizarre Poll Result of the Day

18 Sep 2007 11:54 am

I've been known to engage in some Mark Penn-bashing in my day, but this passage from Microtrends is easily worth the price of admission:

My friend and colleague Sergio Bendixen, president of Bendixen and Associates in Miami and a preeminent expert in Hispanic public opinion research, conducted a cell phone poll of 600 Californians, aged 16-22, and asked them (innocuously enough), "what do you think you will most likely be doing in ten years?" It was a open-ended question, meaning that the respondents could give any answer they wanted (rather than being guided by a list of possible answers). As expected, almost 70 percent of the young folks said they'd be working, some in a specific career or running their own businesses. Twelve percent said they'd be in college, and 12percent said they'd be raising a family. One percent said they'd be in the military. And then, like a bolt from the blue, another 1 percent of California's young respondents volunteered that, in ten years, they would most likely be snipers.

Now, fascinatingly, rather than presenting any additional research or taking the opportunity to inform people about the possibility of polling error, Penn just launches into several pages worth of explaining the causes of the rise of this "new ambition of the younger generation."

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Comments (26)

Oh, come on, knife-wielding gun-craving lad. As if you don't think it would be cool to be a sniper.

Does he blame video games? "I call it the Rainbow Six Effect. Or Halo-tosis!"

I blame the common fantasy among Democrats of taking a shot through the crosshairs at Mark Penn for the phenomenon.

So what are the causes of sniper-related ambition?

Just curious.

So six young Californians, in an era of first-person shooter video games, say they want to grow up to be snipers. And now this is a "new ambition of the younger generation."

I wonder how many California youths in an equivalent 1957 poll wanted to grow up to be cowboys. And whether this was taken as a sign that they were fascinated by animal husbandry.

Please.

The poll was probably taken the first week of last November when the movie "Jarhead" came out. Of course, the poll respondents weren't paying attention to the content of the movie; the vast majority of applicants to sniper school don't make it.

rather than presenting any additional research or taking the opportunity to inform people about the possibility of polling error. . .

or simply observing that 1% in a poll of 600 people is just six people, or thereabouts? That's not a microtrend, it's a nano- or picotrend.

or simply observing that 1% in a poll of 600 people is just six people, or thereabouts? That's not a microtrend, it's a nano- or picotrend.

Given rounding, it really only has to be 3 people...

geeze, maybe the old Stalingrad "sniperism" cult is being revived ... It is mentioned in Beavor's (1998) Stalingrad and Craig's (1973) Enemy at the Gates. More seriously, I assume this is from gamers.

Some of us still want to be ninjas.

I wonder if the poll was taken in October of 2002.

What's hilarious is that Penn apparently thinks this is somehow indicative of a real trend. Didn't six people saying "snipers" ring any alarm bells? At the very least, I'd be suspicious that the call list wasn't very good, and that six wise ass buddies decided to throw in an absurd answer. And if not, clearly it begs the question why, which can only be solved by following up. You know, actual research, not random bloviating about what it all means. At the very least, I'd want to conduct another poll with 600 different people to see if this bizarre result is replicable. There needs to be a validation data set. (You know--the kind of thing that is done in standard statistical analysis every day.)

Mark Penn seems like a real boob.

Does he blame video games? "I call it the Rainbow Six Effect. Or Halo-tosis!"

In Halo 1 at least, ammo for the sniper rifle is so hard to find that you really need to use that weapon sparingly (i.e, only when a Hunter shows up.)

If nothing else, this design feature is likely to teach prudence and restraint among the upcoming generation of psychopaths.

Maybe they meant they wanted to be part of the French hip hop band "the Snipers"? Or maybe they were just short guys who longed to play basketball but realized their only chance was to be really good at shooting 3 pointers, aka snipers. Or maybe, since it only has to be three people, it could be one of each plus a Halo player. Now THAT's a microtrend!

"taking the opportunity to inform people about the possibility of polling error"

Ok, explain what's wrong with this measurement. Ezra Klein demonstrated ignorance of statistics in the same context, so show your work.

Ok, explain what's wrong with this measurement. Ezra Klein demonstrated ignorance of statistics in the same context, so show your work.

What's wrong here has nothing to do with statistics, and everything to do with asinine interpretation of polls. LaFollette is exactly right with this comment. All this shows is that some small fraction of the surveyed population didn't take the question very seriously.

Might be that the key word in the question is "expect", not "want". A few of the more perceptive yoots might have figured that they were going to get sucked into this damn fool war or the next one and that they'd at least get one of the cool jobs in it.

Matt - You've got to stop doing free advertising for this book. These tantalizing snippets make me want to check it out for myself...

You think this poll result is bizarre? I've heard there are something like 15% of American adults who think Dick Cheney is doing a good job!

All this proves is that if you ask 600 young adults a question at least 6 of them will give you a smart-ass answer.

How many said assassins a la Grosse Pointe Blank?

If you look at the hundreds of millions of dollars rural communities spend for SWAT training for their ninja Barney Fife's I think you'd realize this is not a new phenomenon.

Pretty sure it was just the fact that people were pissed off that a polling firm was wasting their cell phone minutes asking them a stupid question with no discernible purpose.

It's not statistical, but I remember ~10-15 years ago, it seemed that all the youngsters I met wanted to be profilers. Since the number one problem our society faced seemed to be serial killers (mostly cannibal), this made sense.

These days, they mostly want to be forensic scientists. I have no idea why.

I'm distressed to see that pirate and ninja aren't polling higher. Is there something wrong with young people, or just with California? (Both rhetorical questions).

i looked up the survey itself and it appears that brahma—

The poll was probably taken the first week of last November when the movie "Jarhead" came out.

—is right:

A total of 601 interviews were conducted between October 6th and November 15th, 2006.

ok thank you.


Comments closed October 02, 2007.

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