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Compromise

17 Sep 2007 09:06 am

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This "news analysis" from Peter Baker and Jonathan Weisman in yesterday's Washington Post was so ridiculous that I couldn't bring myself to complain about it on a low traffic Tuesday. As many people as possible need to slam their collective heads against the wall and ask themselves why. Why people would actually be paid money to write this lead:

When Army Gen. David H. Petraeus last week proposed withdrawing more than 20,000 U.S. troops from Iraq, some congressional Democrats nodded their heads and saw it as a positive, if insufficient, step forward. Some wanted to take credit. After all, they reasoned, the drawdown, the benchmarks report, even Petraeus's Capitol Hill testimony came about only because of Democratic pressure.

Within hours, that idea was shot down. When House Democratic leaders convened in the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) at 5:30 p.m. Monday, strategists concluded they were already getting credit for what was happening but that voters wanted much more. So Pelosi, according to aides at the meeting, insisted that Democrats coordinate their message and dictated what that message would be: The general's plan meant 10 more years of war, or even "endless war."

Yes, yes, Pelosi is the one to blame for the failure of a compromise to emerge, even though what Bush (pardon me, "Petraeus") proposed wasn't a compromise at all, unless "keep as many troops in Iraq as possible for as long as possible" now counts as a compromise. And it keeps going on like that. They warn that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton may be unable to bring the congress together because "Even if they could find a compromise that enough Republicans would accept, it is not clear that the candidates would agree to anything but a hard-line position given the antiwar fervor in the party base." This fervent party base would, I take it, be the 60-70 percent of the American public who wants to see drawdowns in Iraq and these base-beholden presidential candidates would, I guess, be the ones who are sticking to their base-displeasing stances in favor of residual forces in Iraq.

In contrast to these intransigent Democrats, Baker and Weisman suggest that Bush "has signaled that he is starting to shift." Really? I guess so:

In fact, although senior officials did not use the term "exit strategy," the outlines of one emerged from the various statements and speeches they made last week. Petraeus plans to begin redefining his mission in December from leading combat operations to partnering with Iraqi security units and eventually to supporting them. At least 21,700 troops, and perhaps more from the buildup, will be pulled out by July. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told reporters he hopes to bring the overall force, now at 168,000, down to 100,000 by the end of next year. And Petraeus told The Washington Post that he foresees "sustainable security" in Iraq by June 2009, a point at which the U.S. presence could be scaled back even more.

Now, again, what happened here is that Petraeus said that some troops will be withdrawn when it is no longer possible to avoid withdrawing that. At that point, we'll have as many troops in Iraq as we did a year ago. After that, Petraeus gave us a chart that contained no dates and where the final point still had tens of thousands of American soldiers in Iraq. That's not an exit strategy. And, indeed, a couple of paragraphs later they note that Bush "made no commitment to do anything beyond the initial drawdown of forces sent for the buildup." But this is the key point -- there was no compromise! They then go to Peter Rodman, a former Don Rumsfeld aide now cooling his heels at Brookings, and who "said he was particularly surprised at how Democratic presidential candidates reacted to Bush because they have a vested interest should they win the White House."

I'm ready to explode. The goal, in article-writing, should be that a person who reads your article comes away from it with a better understanding of the subject -- this does the reverse.

U.S. Army photo by Spc. Charles W. Gill

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Comments (29)

AP) 9/14/07-In his new book “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World,” Greenspan wrote: “I’m saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: The Iraq war is largely about oil.”
AP) 9/17/07-“I was not saying that that’s the administration’s motive,” Greenspan said in the interview conducted on Saturday. “I’m just saying that if somebody asked me, ’Are we fortunate in taking out Saddam?’ I would say it was essential.”
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Greenspan wakes up with a horse head in his bed.

Greenspan wakes up with a horse head in his bed.

Must resist cruel joke.

Well, you might remember the David Ignatius column that quoted an anonymous high ranking Democratic consultant who wanted to "take yes for an answer" and claim credit for any troop reduction (this was before the Petraeus testimony.) So I don't doubt that exactly what is described happened, and Pelosi had to shoot down the stupid idea.

Greenspan wakes up with a horse head in his bed.

Must resist cruel joke.

Heh.

Agreed, the article was poor.

You write, "After that, Petraeus gave us a chart that contained no dates and where the final point still had tens of thousands of American soldiers in Iraq."

Dates should parameterize our strategy, not inflect it. Dates are arbitrary demarcations, and to make them determiners of phase shifts in capability is irresponsible.

That's not to say that we shouldn't all agree on a red line date after which we shrug our shoulders and give Iraqis the finger -- i.e. pull out and let them fend for themselves -- but between now and then strategic phases should be tied to facts on the ground, not facts on a calendar.

Re Matthew's comment "After that, Petraeus gave us a chart that contained no dates "
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Which means a meaningful reduction could occur somewhere out in ..say.. 2300 AD. If you're optimistic.

What do we call this unit of time -- an "inverse Friedman unit"?? It seems to share the "Friedman unit"'s Xeno-like capability of defining 6 months that stretchs to 6 years and counting. However, it seems to lack the precision of the Friedman unit.

Maybe we should call it a "Petraeus Unit"??
Have physicists come up with a more rigorous definition by relating it to the rate at which planetary systems collapse into a black hole, with a resulting distortion of the space-time continuum.

Re JA's comment "Dates should parameterize our strategy, not inflect it. Dates are arbitrary demarcations, and to make them determiners of phase shifts in capability is irresponsible."
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ha ha ha ha ha

What would happen to the common worker if his boss asked him when a task would be done and the worker responded with a bullshit line like the above??

What would happen to the common citizen if the IRS told him his income tax was due on April 15 and the citizen , instead of sending in his return and a check, sent in a letter with a bullshit line like the above?

Petraeus and George Bush work for us --We The People.

By the way, did it occur to any of you Brainiacs that the Democratic front-runners , John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, are Democratic Senators who voted FOR the Iraq Disaster?

Whereas the Republican front-runners , Rudi Giuliani and Milt Rommey, did NOT.

So why do Democrats think they are going to be able to hang the Iraq disaster around the necks of the Republicans in September 2008??

Looks to me that if Iraq is still a disaster then, the Democrats are screwed in the Presidential race unless Obama is our nominee.

our local San Diego ABC new affiliate had its headline "Democrats reject president's troop withdrawal plan" on the day of Petraeus' "testimonmy".

Mr. Don Williams wrote, "What would happen to the common worker if his boss asked him when a task would be done and the worker responded with a bullshit line like the above?"

Um, parameter = deadline. Not sure what your point is.

JA, paramter does not equal deadline. whoever told you that?

don williams: other than the "netroots," what people in 2008 are going to care about is what your position is on iraq today, not what was it in october, 2002.

matthew: jonathan weisman used to be on the economics beat for the wapo and prof delong used to regularly eviscerate his stupidity over there. when the wapo moved him to a political beat, they noted how he was one of their rising talents.

which shows how much the wapo gives a good god-damned about understanding your subject, since he's been as stupid on politics as he was on economics. fred hiatt probably thinks he's cool, though....

Oh my dear lord. A parameter is a limit or boundary, yes? A deadline is...wait for it...

A limit or boundary! Holy shit, that means that one way to "parameterize" a strategy would be to give it a deadline! An after-this-date-your-strategy-is-obsolete demarcation!

Whew, I'm glad we're all on the same page.

Steve Duncan:
"AP) 9/14/07-In his new book “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World,” Greenspan wrote: “I’m saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: The Iraq war is largely about oil.”
AP) 9/17/07-“I was not saying that that’s the administration’s motive,” Greenspan said in the interview conducted on Saturday. “I’m just saying that if somebody asked me, ’Are we fortunate in taking out Saddam?’ I would say it was essential.”

This is all common knowledge. The key word is "largely." I mean, Saddam annexed Kuwait and incorporated it into Iraq, b/c of oil, largely.

It's not that Saddam was deposed so oil companies can reap huge profits. Saddam had stacks and stacks of UN resolutions against him. But the global economy does need a steady supply of oil with no distruptions. Oil prices are set by the market, so it's not like it's a conspiracy.

Greenspan and his type don't care about democracy in Iraq or Saddam facing justice (anymore than some anti-war types do), those are just side benefits. If democracy works out, it will be essential to security of future generations.

It's interesting Greenspan admits "’Are we fortunate in taking out Saddam?’ I would say it was essential.” And yet many people insist it was a "war of choice."

I like the new bill by the Democrats which would give soldiers longer breaks. I'd be interested to read more about it.

Re JA "Um, parameter = deadline. Not sure what your point is."
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The point is that Iraq is consuming huge amounts of resources. NO competent manager would make an open-ended commitment to such arterial bleeding.

Any competent plan lays out a timeline for how one gets from point A to point B with intermediate dates on the schedule and plans to ENSURE those dates are met -- along with a budget for necessary resources and reserves.

Some would argue that managing the politics of a foreign nation is not the same as running a business process. I disagree.

One cannot control the actions/behaviors of suppliers, customers, or competitors -- but one can certainly control one's own actions. In business, if you try to make a deal with someone and he repeatedly jerks you around, you go with someone else or you drop the initiative and go to greener pastures.

Bush is a regional manager with a poor performance record. HE was given the fast track early on -- Andover, Yale, Harvard MBA, his own company -- and he ended up a drunk on the verge of bankruptcy who had to be rescued.

For reasons which escape me, the shareholders of USA Inc made him CEO -- and history is repeating itself. Our Debt is now almost $4 TRILLION more than what Bush projected at the start of his term -- and Bush has been cooking the accounting by stealing from the pension funds. The idea that this incompetent should not be subject to close discipline --including having to meet a schedule and budget --is ridiculous.

Our schedule and budget defines what WE do -- not what the Iraqis do. What kind of an idiot would set up a business plan driven by what external free agents do?

For example, we can say we will spend 3 more months trying to encourage the Iraqi Parliament to establish national reconcilation. At the end of that date, they either have done so or they have not. Our decision tree says we do step 1.1 if they have else we do step 1.2. It doesn't say that we sit down and bitch, moan, gripe and plead.

We can't make Iraqis' decisions for them -- we can offer incentives and deals but it's up to them to take them.

But by the same point, we can't let the Iraqis control US.

And our plans should be transparent enough that they understand that.

Dates should parameterize our strategy, not inflect it. Dates are arbitrary demarcations, and to make them determiners of phase shifts in capability is irresponsible.

This absolutely is a classic obfuscatory line. Not sure I've ever read such a great example of fluid yet incomprehensible jargon before.

Re mq's comment "This absolutely is a classic obfuscatory line. Not sure I've ever read such a great example of fluid yet incomprehensible jargon before."
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Actually, by Washington DC standards, JA's comment skirts dangerously close to the edge of actually saying something.

Steve Duncan: "Greenspan wakes up with a horse head in his bed."

Jeffrey Davis: "Must resist cruel joke."
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I see what you mean. Put a bridle in her mouth and she's the spitting image of Roy Rogers's horse-- Trigger, the Golden Palamino.

But with dark roots.

JA, just because the 4th definition of parameter (according to my handy dandy merriamwebster.com) is "limit, boundary" and just because a deadline can also be a "limit, boundary" doesn't make a "parameter" a "deadline."

that's just word-game silliness. words have usages and meanings, and no one uses "parameter" as an interchangeable substitute for "deadline" (oh my god, i've got this intense paramter pressure today!).

parameters can lead to deadlines (i.e., the parameter is to complete something this year, therefore there's a deadline for the draft version of october 12, a deadline for comments of october 30, a deadline for revisions of november 15, a deadline for final edits of december 1, a deadline to go to the printer on december 8, and a completion date of december 31), but they aren't deadlines themselves.

Don,

Okay, a business example. Let's say we're on the board of Walmart, and we have a logistics dilemma: we need to determine what inventory strategy to take for the next three months. On one hand we can schedule, right now, to restock inventory with a predetermined type/quantity of product on the following dates: October 18, November 19, and December 20. While our sales forecasts justify these inflection points, once we choose this schedule our supply is no longer responsive to demand.

On the other hand, we could go the "just-in-time" route and actively calibrate, in real time, our supply to demand. With this strategy the facts on the ground -- i.e. the RFID-informed inventory-deltas at individual stores -- determine the response. If a trend emerges and it looks like a particularly profitable item will suffer a shortfall, we can "surge" that product to the stores in time for Christmas. Etc.
..........

MQ, I don't know what to tell you. It makes perfect sense to me.
..........

howard, i'm sorry, but you are wrong. A parameter is an "independent variable" of a system. This means that no other variables within the system affect a parameter. In a system that's been given, say, six hours to "live," one says that that system has a time parameter of six hours. In such a way, a deadline can be defined as an independent variable of a system; i.e., a deadline is a parameter.

With that in mind -- understanding that what I argued for was to give Petraeus a time-boundary, before which our strategy would be to "win" and our moves would be responsive to facts on the ground (system-state benchmarks), after which our strategy would be to withdraw and our moves (barring exigent circumstances like genocide) would be calibrated to predetermined quantities of troops coordinated to given dates -- with all that in mind, please tell me what's so wrong with not having dates as determiners of Petraeus' benchmarks?

It seems to me that would be a workable compromise.

Re JA's comment "On the other hand, we could go the "just-in-time" route and actively calibrate, in real time, our supply to demand. With this strategy the facts on the ground -- i.e. the RFID-informed inventory-deltas at individual stores -- determine the response. If a trend emerges and it looks like a particularly profitable item will suffer a shortfall, we can "surge" that product to the stores in time for Christmas. Etc."
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Sorry, you can't run military operations that way. They're different from stocking predefined
products with a well-defined supply chain.

To see why, go buy one of those plastic kits of complex models -- say, of an automobile engine. Now get your friends together and try to put it together as quickly as you can.

See the problem?? -- subassembly A has to be to be joined with subassembly B and C BEFORE you can proceed further but that FIRST requires that all the subassemblys first be assembled.

Which requires that everyone wait for subassembly C to be put together because it is the most complicated but only one person can work on it so "surging" doesn't do shit -- except add more people standing around waiting for the person doing subassembly C to finish.

If some sneaky terrorist has stolen one of the parts of Subassembly C, then you're even more screwed -- you have to wait until someone can go back to the model store and buy a replacement.

It's called "The Critical Path".

Don, now you're arguing that my analogy is isomorphically inadequate because it does not have one-to-one correspondence with "military reality."

Touche, then, and thanks for completely missing my point.

Re JA's "Don, now you're arguing that my analogy is isomorphically inadequate "
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Yeah, but I think Viagra can fix it.

Rumsfeld, for all the criticism, did find an acorn now and then. Such as when he asked whether we are creating more terrorists than we are killing.

In conventional ops, ground of varying values is the metric. You throw X units along Y avenues of approachs for time frame Z with required logistics of L and see where you get.

But what is the metric in counterinsurgency? Do more Iraqis hate us today than hated us last month? Of those that do, how strongly do they hate us?

JA, who knows? maybe you live and work in some realm where parameter and deadline are used interchangeably; maybe you live in some realm where people say silly things like "we have a time paramter of 6 hours." maybe i'm just behind the curve on how usage of the term "parameter" is evolving.

but more likely, you're substituting some very specific usage in some very specific situation that the mandarins of that endeavor employ for a general meaning.

as they say in the software industry, there are date-driven releases and feature-driven releases. you want a date-driven release? you set a deadline. you want a feature-driven release? you set parameters to be achieved.

you want both? you're a bad boss....

It's interesting Greenspan admits "’Are we fortunate in taking out Saddam?’ I would say it was essential.” And yet many people insist it was a "war of choice."

Many people disagree with Greenspan? What kind of world do we live in? All hail Greenspan!

A "low-traffic Tuesday"? You mean Sunday, right?

How do you make that slip?

Matthew was clearly using Tuesday to parameterize his posting strategy, not inflect it.

I just appreciate your writing this article Matthew. It's stunning sometimes to see the coverage here - pretending that Bush was offering a compromise. Really unbelievable stuff.

Seeing the discussion here in the above comments, though, I begin to understand part of the Left's inability to get its message out...

Bush should be annoyed. Bush has NEVER said he wants us to leave Iraq. Bush is doing everything in his power to STAY in Iraq.

The story is quite simple. Bush wants to STAY in Iraq (for a long time). The American people want our troops to LEAVE Iraq and end our commitment. Democrats in Congress want to LEAVE Iraq, but are frustrated by Bush.

It is harder to leave if the guy in charge of diplomacy is not in favor of leaving so isn't doing the diplomatic deals that make leaving possible.

The only question is whether Bush can stalemate Congress and keep troop in Iraq through 2008 or if Congress can find a way to force Bush to start leaving.


Comments closed October 01, 2007.

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