Warner's In

This has been anticipated, but it looks like former Governor Mark Warner is officially unoffocially in the race (official announcement later today) to succeed John Warner as Senator from Virginia. For reasons that are slightly mysterious to me, governor Warner is ridiculously popular in Virginia for someone who was governor for four years a couple of years ago (even my cousin in second grade remembers him fondly), so this has just gone and become a very likely Democratic pickup which, in turn, makes it overwhelmingly likely that Democrats maintain their Senate majority.

UPDATE: Commenters are warning that semi-moderate Rep. Tom Davis would be a formidable opponent, but Rasmussen's polls say otherwise:

In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.

I should note that, like Matt Stoller, I'm not really a Mark Warner fan. I am, however, strongly inclined to take what I can get in terms of Democratic pickups in southern states.

Comments

I was shocked when he dropped out of the presidential race (or didn't enter, I guess.) Mickey Kaus has claimed that it's because he has too much of a past as a womanizer, but I don't see how you can reconcile that with the presidency of Bill Clinton, or the current candidacy of Fred Thompson.

Posted by Freddie | September 13, 2007 9:44 AM

Matt, don't put this one in the bag just yet. With memories of Webb's narrow victory of Allen still quite raw, the wingers in VA are going to fight like mighty hell to defeat Warner -- I'm thinking here about the virulent strain of anti-illegal alien activism that's turned the tiny town of Herndon into a national battleground. They'll probably fail but it will be ugly.

Posted by fnook | September 13, 2007 10:01 AM

So refreshing to finally have a governor who was not a bathroom idiot

No doubt Mark Warner has plenty of inherent good qualities, but his popularity in my state is undoubtedly given a huge boost by the contrast with his predecessors. If you ever wonder why Warner is so liked by Virginians, just think of Jim Gilmore and George Allen, and stop wondering.

Posted by Glen Tomkins | September 13, 2007 10:04 AM

I wouldn't put it in the bag either. IMO, Warner's victory will depend largely on whether the VA GOP drinks the "we weren't conservative enough in '06" kool-aid. In that case, they'll probably nominate Gilmore/Kilgore and it's a D pickup.

If they're smart enough to realize they need a moderate-sounding popular guy running, then they'll nominate Tom Davis. Davis is pretty popular in the big population centers of Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties. A Warner/Davis race will be a squeaker.

Posted by Lynn | September 13, 2007 10:19 AM

Matt, don't put this one in the bag just yet. With memories of Webb's narrow victory of Allen still quite raw, the wingers in VA are going to fight like mighty hell to defeat Warner

Except that no one expected Webb to win. Allen's loss, in spite of every 'institutional' advantage that one could imagine, was very, very bad news for Republicans in Virginia. Warner should win, unless he has somehow forgotten how to run a competent campaign.

Posted by MattF | September 13, 2007 10:22 AM

As a VA voter, I have to say I'm a little disappointed. I was banking on Warner running for governor again in '09 to ensure a Dem voice (hopefully with the state house or senate or both) in redistricting. Virginia may be trending purple, but a second gubernatorial term by Warner would help move the process along.

Posted by Joe | September 13, 2007 10:41 AM

I agree with Lynn. Northern Virginia, which is very Democratic, is where Tom Davis is strong, and the rest of the state pulls the big "R" lever. Davis would have an uphill fight in the Republican primary, but might have an advantage against Warner. I bet the Virginia Republican machine gets behind Davis. The national party will probably apply pressure too. If the R's nominate a winger, Warner might carry the state for a Dem presidential candidate.

Posted by Njorl | September 13, 2007 10:44 AM

First democratic governors and then Democratic Senators (both)! I heard VA is changing but changing this fast? The GOP will fight this one hard and that might mean Davis. Although I keep hoping they nominate some right wing loon.

Posted by 2cynicalbyhalf | September 13, 2007 10:52 AM

Matt-Warner is popular because he actually cleaned up the mess that Virginia was in when it got rid of the Car Tax. Since the Governor is limited to one term, most spend their time running for Senate while pushing the state's problems of to the next governor.

Posted by Rob | September 13, 2007 11:17 AM

Now that Mark Warner's in, I'm not sure that Tom Davis is confident enough in his ability to get Republicans outside Northern Virginia to turn out for him and beat Warner to actually give up his House seat (incidentally providing an excellent pickup opportunity for Democrats) and run for Senate. Hasn't Davis delayed his announcement, which was originally supposed to be last week some time?

Posted by KCinDC | September 13, 2007 12:34 PM

How many voters will pull the lever for Mark Warner thinking they are voting for John Warner?

Posted by CJColucci | September 13, 2007 1:00 PM

Davis has publicly said that he won't announce one way or the other until after the 2007 General Assembly elections. My take: I think he's looking to see if his wife retains her State Senate seat. If she does, he'll run for Senate and she'll run to fill his House seat.

FWIW, I think those polls are bunk at this point. Unlike Gilmore, Davis isn't known outside NoVA yet.

Posted by Lynn | September 13, 2007 1:10 PM

"UPDATE: Commenters are warning that semi-moderate Rep. Tom Davis would be a formidable opponent, but Rasmussen's polls say otherwise:"

Davis doesn't have statewide name recognition. He is not well known in the heavily Republican part of the state. That will probably finish him in the primaries, but - in a general election, that would change.

Now, in SW Virginia, it is a choice between that OK governor Warner and "who?". Later it will be that Democrat Warner and "our guy Davis".

I would also not discount the possibility that pollees got their Warners confused.

Something that would help Warner against Davis is that Republicans in the west would just stay home. This may be more important if, as is likely, there is no Republican presidential candidate that they would be willing to raise a butt cheek for if a fart was all that was required to vote.

Posted by Njorl | September 13, 2007 1:15 PM

Pro gun! Pro-public investment/revenue increases! Pro-community college education over college education! What's not to like!

Warner has espoused some rather hawkish foreign policy lines, but at the time he was trying to run for President by picking up all the right-of-Hillary "Hillary Can't win and is too liberal" votes (Southern whites and Democratic business elite) plus as many netroots supporters as he could muster. It's not clear to me that he would hew to those views as a Senator.

On Telecom policy, that's another story, but I think on balance Warner does much much more good than harm. And I say this as someone who wasn't really a fan of Warner-as-President.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | September 13, 2007 1:17 PM

Njorl, they might not stay home if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic presidential candidate.

But Davis might have a problem getting the nomination if the Republicans decide to have a convention rather than a primary to choose their candidate, right?

Posted by KCinDC | September 13, 2007 1:19 PM

Exactly. If they have a convention, Davis loses, barring some miracle.

Posted by Lynn | September 13, 2007 1:44 PM

Adding, so long as is Warner is able to keep his hawkishness in check, so that he joins people like Joe Biden on foreign policy, it seems to me that's not the end of the world. It would be suboptimal if Biden were running foriegn policy, but having him as someone to consult with, rather than run the whole thing, seems reasonable.

Posted by Nich | September 13, 2007 2:31 PM

As a fan of The Distinguished Gentleman, I wonder how many people will just vote for Warner because they always vote for Warner . . . and if there's any way we can get Eddie Murphy involved in the race.

Posted by southpaw | September 13, 2007 6:39 PM

I think Warner may be as good as it gets for us in Virginia and in the end, that's not so bad.

I think Davis might run because he may actually be vulnerable in 2008 in Fairfx. Although he is sometimes moderate (and at heart is a pretty pragmatic guy) he is also ambitious and has thrown himself in with the wingers to a significant degree. I think Gilmore might get in too, and he would probably crush Davis.

Posted by klein's tiny left nut | September 13, 2007 8:14 PM

It's true that Davis's challenger, Andrew Hurst, managed to get to 44% with very little funding or support, so it might be that Davis's seat would be vulnerable anyway.

Posted by KCinDC | September 13, 2007 10:41 PM